Every NFL Contender's Biggest Flaw Heading into the 2020 Playoffs
No NFL team, no matter how good it appears to be, is perfect. Fans only need to have watched the Pittsburgh Steelers over the past couple of weeks for proof of this. The Steelers entered Week 13 with an undefeated record and the AFC's No. 1 seed.
Now, Pittsburgh sits at 11-2 and is in legitimate danger of not even winning the AFC North.
Even the AFC's new No. 1 seed, the 12-1 Kansas City Chiefs, have flaws that can be exploited. All of the top contenders do. With three weeks remaining in the 2020 regular season, now is a good time to examine what those flaws are.
Here, we'll examine the 11 biggest Super Bowl favorites (there's a tie at No. 10)—according to the odds at DraftKings—and the one weakness that could most easily derail each team's Super Bowl bid in the coming weeks. While any team that gets into the postseason will have a shot at winning it all, these are the betting favorites and, by extension, those generally perceived to be the most legitimate contenders.
We'll focus primarily on factors like recent trends, season-long results and team health, though individual players will be a factor for some squads. Teams are listed in ascending order of their Super Bowl odds entering Monday night.
11. Tennessee Titans: Bad Pass Defense
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Super Bowl Odds: 28-1
The Tennessee Titans are built to play with a lead. They can get strong performances from Ryan Tannehill, A.J. Brown and the passing game, but leaning on Derrick Henry and the rushing attack has helped the Titans mask their biggest deficiency: a bad pass defense.
The Titans rank just 29th in passing yards allowed. They have just 14 sacks on the season (fewest leaguewide). That's less of a concern when Tennessee can control the clock and keep the opposing offense off the field. It's a major problem when they can't.
When forced to play from behind, Tennessee can find itself in a shootout scenario, and bad pass defense then becomes an extreme liability.
Just look back to Tennessee's Week 13 loss to the Cleveland Browns. While the Titans did mount a furious second-half comeback, the damage was done before halftime. Baker Mayfield and the Browns gashed the Titans while building a 38-7 halftime lead. By then, it didn't matter how much Tennessee was able to control the clock.
Against a prolific passing team like Kansas City or the Buffalo Bills, this bad pass defense could be a recipe for an early exit in the postseason.
10. Indianapolis Colts: Philip Rivers' Inconsistency
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Super Bowl Odds: 28-1
The Indianapolis Colts can be a dangerous team in the postseason if they get in. They have a strong rushing attack, the league's sixth-ranked overall defense and a seasoned veteran in quarterback Philip Rivers running the show.
However, Rivers has been up-and-down in his first season with Indianapolis, and his inconsistent play could bite the Colts against an elite team in the playoffs.
When Rivers takes care of the football, the Colts win. When he doesn't, they've been under .500. He's thrown interceptions in seven different games this season, and the Colts are 3-4 in those contests. They're 0-2 during games in which he throws multiple interceptions.
Adding to the concern is the fact Rivers is dealing with a foot injury that is expected to require offseason surgery, though it hasn't been a significant issue yet.
"I don't feel any limitations out there. It's just managing it," Rivers said, per NFL.com's Michael Baca.
However, if Rivers finds himself at less than 100 percent against an elite team like the Kansas City Chiefs or Buffalo Bills, the turnover bug could strike again and send Indianapolis home.
9. Baltimore Ravens: An Inconsistent Passing Game
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Super Bowl Odds: 16-1
Like the Tennessee Titans, the Baltimore Ravens are much more dangerous when playing with a lead. Unlike Tennessee, they haven't had the sort of reliable passing game that allows them to mount comebacks regularly.
Quarterback Lamar Jackson is still developing as a passer, though a lack of reliable weapons has arguably been a bigger concern. While his completion rate is down from last year (63.8 percent versus 66.1 percent), he doesn't have a reliable go-to target at receiver.
Marquise Brown leads all Ravens receivers with 605 receiving yards. However, he has caught just 53.1 percent of the balls thrown his way. That's not the catch rate of a true No. 1 option. Brown and the passing game were good enough on Monday against Cleveland's depleted secondary, but the Ravens have struggled when forced to go pass-heavy.
Jackson has attempted more than 25 passes in six different games. The Ravens have gone 2-4 in those contests.
Should Baltimore find itself in a shootout or comeback situation in the postseason, its lack of a consistent passing attack—and a serious lack of reliable wideouts—could be the difference between advancing and going home.
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8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: A Lack of Success Against Good Teams
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Super Bowl Odds: 14-1
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had consistency issues throughout the 2020 season. Tom Brady and his receivers have been off the same page at times, while Bruce Arians' entire offense has appeared off at others.
Having the league's 20th-ranked pass defense hasn't helped, either, as it's forced Brady and the Bucs into shootout and comeback scenarios. However, a bigger concern is that Tampa simply hasn't shown up against elite teams.
The Buccaneers have played six squads that currently have a winning record. They have won two of those games against the Green Bay Packers and the Las Vegas Raiders, and they've lost to the New Orleans Saints (twice), Los Angeles Rams and Kansas City Chiefs.
That's a trend that could hurt Tampa's confidence heading into the postseason because there won't be many losing teams in the playoffs.
The lone exception is whichever team wins the NFC East, but even that squad could derail the Buccaneers. Tampa barely survived the New York Giants back in Week 8, so can it feel confident going into any playoff matchup at this point?
Adding another quality win before the playoffs could help restore Tampa's confidence. Unfortunately, with two games against the Atlanta Falcons and one against the Detroit Lions, the Buccaneers won't have the opportunity to get one.
7. Seattle Seahawks: A Reliance on Russell Wilson
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Super Bowl Odds: 14-1
At first blush, the Seattle Seahawks' 32nd-ranked pass defense may seem like their biggest flaw. However, they have typically overcome that issue because of the offense's passing prowess. When Russell Wilson, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett and the rest of the offense are rolling, the Seahawks are hard to beat.
However, Seattle is heavily reliant on Wilson and the passing attack, and when the quarterback struggles, the team has had virtually no shot. The Seahawks have not won a game in which Wilson has had multiple turnovers this season.
Now, it's never easy to win when a team turns the ball over multiple times in the same game. However, it's not impossible. The Kansas City Chiefs proved that as recently as Sunday. However, the Seahawks don't have a consistent enough running game or a stout enough defense to survive the rare off outing from Wilson.
Seattle has long relied on him to mask other issues, and that's not going to change in the coming weeks.
If the Seahawks are going to make it to the Super Bowl, they'll need to play mistake-free football. They could do so, of course, but mistake-free football is hard to come by against quality opponents in the postseason.
6. Pittsburgh Steelers: The Lack of a Reliable Running Game
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Super Bowl Odds: 13-1
The Pittsburgh Steelers are carrying multiple flaws into the final stretch. Quarterback Ben Roethlisberger is reportedly dealing with a knee issue, the offense has struggled to attack deep downfield, wide receiver drops are a reoccurring problem, and the defense is without standouts Devin Bush and Bud Dupree for the rest of the way.
However, Pittsburgh's inability to run the ball is the one issue that could really sink this team in the postseason. The defense is still good enough to keep games close, but if the Steelers cannot control the clock and grind out leads, they're going to struggle against quality opponents.
We saw this Sunday night as the Steelers jumped out to an early 7-0 lead but couldn't stop giving the Buffalo Bills opportunities. They also repeatedly faced third-and-long situations, which is a major problem when Big Ben can't throw it deep consistently and the wideouts are struggling with drops.
A week earlier, the Steelers couldn't put away the Washington Football Team because they couldn't run. That resulted in their first loss of the season.
More losses are going to mount for the Steelers if they cannot find a way to improve a ground game that ranks 31st in both yards and yards per attempt on the season.
5. Buffalo Bills: Poor Run Defense
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Super Bowl Odds: 12-1
The Buffalo Bills handled the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday night in a relatively one-sided game. However, things may have gone quite differently if Pittsburgh had any semblance of a quality rushing attack. Buffalo has struggled against the run this season, and that's a problem that could cost it in the playoffs.
The Bills rank 19th against the run and 22nd in yards per carry allowed. They have been carved up at times and have lost more often than they've won when that happens.
Buffalo has surrendered 130-plus rushing yards five different times this season. It is 2-3 in those contests, and the wins came by a combined six points. The Bills beat the Los Angeles Rams with a late game-winning drive in Week 3, and they survived the New England Patriots 24-21 in Week 8.
Inconsistent run defense is a problem because it allows the opposing team to keep Josh Allen and the Bills' dynamic passing attack off the field for stretches at a time. Against a foe that can effectively run the ball like the Tennessee Titans, Baltimore Ravens or Cleveland Browns, that could be enough to end Buffalo's postseason party early.
4. Los Angeles Rams: Jared Goff's Inconsistency
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Super Bowl Odds: 11-1
Now that Cam Akers and the running game have started to really click, few flaws stand out for the Los Angeles Rams. Inconsistency from quarterback Jared Goff is one of them.
Goff has been mostly reliable this season, and he doesn't have a dire turnover problem. However, he's still being asked to be a game-manager, and when he doesn't manage the game well, Los Angeles has about a 50-50 shot to emerge victoriously.
The Rams are 4-4 when Goff throws an interception this season. He had three turnovers in the team's last loss, which came to the San Francisco 49ers in Week 12. He also had four turnovers in a Week 8 loss to the Miami Dolphins.
"We're not taking good enough care of the football, and that's something that's got to change," head coach Sean McVay told reporters after the Rams' loss to San Francisco.
While Goff has only turned the ball over 15 times this season, his giveaways have come in bunches. That could be enough to sink one of the most complete teams in the NFL come playoff time.
As previously noted, it's hard for any team to win when it turns the ball over multiple times. However, the Rams have to be genuinely concerned with Goff's ability to shoulder the offense in a big game if it's needed.
3. New Orleans Saints: Drew Brees' Health
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Super Bowl Odds: 7-1
The New Orleans Saints have one of the most complete rosters in the NFL. However, as they showed during their Week 14 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles, they are not invulnerable. Their vaunted defense got run over by dual-threat quarterback Jalen Hurts, and interim starter Taysom Hill was unable to mount a comeback.
Hill threw multiple off-target passes during the comeback attempt and also turned the ball over twice. While Drew Brees, who is out with multiple rib fractures, may no longer be in his prime, accuracy and ball security are rarely concerns with him.
With the Kansas City Chiefs on the Week 15 schedule and a talented playoff field lurking ahead, New Orleans' championship chances could hinge on Brees' ability to get on the field and back to 100 percent. However, the Saints aren't going to rush him back—and given the extent of his injury, that's the right call.
"Brees will be questionable at best to play next Sunday against Kansas City, and he would not have been able to play against Philadelphia, according to sources," ESPN's Adam Schefter wrote.
The Saints have already secured a playoff berth, so getting Brees right may be more important than picking up wins over the final three weeks.
2. Green Bay Packers: A Tendency to Let Opponents Hang Around
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Super Bowl Odds: 13-2
The Green Bay Packers have every reason to feel good about where they are right now. They took over the NFC's No. 1 seed Sunday and clinched the NFC North division title.
"We had a moment in the locker room, I just kind of leaned back in my locker and just smiled and took it all in with the music playing and the guys celebrating, it was just a special moment," quarterback Aaron Rodgers said, per ESPN's Rob Demovsky.
However, the Packers cannot get comfortable over the final three weeks, and they have to stop getting complacent late in games. Allowing opponents to hang around has been an issue that needs to go away.
In Week 14, the Detroit Lions made it close despite finishing the game without quarterback Matthew Stafford. The one-win Jacksonville Jaguars made it interesting back in Week 10, and allowing the Indianapolis Colts back in the game led to an overtime loss in Week 11.
Rodgers, Davante Adams, Aaron Jones and the rest of the Packers offense are playing well enough to pile up points in bunches. However, in close games, the team that possesses the ball last will always have a chance. Green Bay can't feel comfortable nursing a five-point lead against a team like the Seattle Seahawks or Tampa Bay Buccaneers in the postseason.
Its easiest path to victory will involve ensuring that games aren't close at the end.
1. Kansas City Chiefs: Poor Run Defense
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Super Bowl Odds: 18-10
The Kansas City Chiefs have been able to mask many of their deficiencies with quarterback Patrick Mahomes and their quick-strike offense. Getting down on the scoreboard usually isn't a huge deal because Mahomes and Co. can march down the field and erase deficits in a matter of plays.
Even when he makes mistakes, as he did in Week 14, the Chiefs can feel confident in their ability to come back. He tossed three interceptions against the Miami Dolphins, and the Chiefs faced an early 10-0 hole. However, Mahomes, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce and the rest of the offense surged ahead to net another close win.
In the playoffs, however, such a comeback could easily be foiled by a strong opposing run game. The Dolphins weren't able to move the ball effectively to keep Mahomes off the field and in a hole. Teams like the Tennessee Titans, Baltimore Ravens and Cleveland Browns likely can.
The Chiefs rank 26th in run defense and 29th in yards per carry allowed. It has rarely been an issue because Mahomes seldom makes big mistakes, but it warrants concern.
Should the quarterback have another mistake-filled game against a team with a strong ground attack, Kansas City could be looking at an early playoff exit.
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