Bleacher Report's MLB 25 in '25: Predicting the Top 25 First Basemen in 2025
Welcome to B/R's MLB 25 in '25 rankings!
In the coming weeks, we'll take a crack at predicting who the 25 best players will be at each position in five years, during the 2025 season.
Loyal readers will remember we did something similar in 2015 with our "20 for '20" series.
That edition had a few swings and misses (see: Singleton, Jon), and there will undoubtedly be some whiffs this time around. That's just the nature of the beast.
However, I like to think I've grown a good deal as a talent evaluator in those five years, so hopefully this one is more hit than miss.
Players are ranked based on their long-term upside, path to playing time, production and projectable tools. Ages refer to how old a player will be July 1, 2025.
Along with analysis on the 25 first basemen selected, you'll find a list of notable veteran omissions based on age and expected regression. We also predicted the top 10 first base prospects for 2025, complete with a few college players who are 2021 draft prospects.
This is going to be a lot of fun, and I look forward to discussing my picks in the app throughout the process.
Let's get started.
Catch up on our MLB 25 in '25 series: Catchers
Notable Veteran Omissions
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The following players were excluded because of age and expected regression. Their 2025 age is included in parentheses:
- Jose Abreu (38)
- Jesus Aguilar (35)
- Brandon Belt (37)
- Miguel Cabrera (42)
- Paul Goldschmidt (37)
- Yuli Gurriel (41)
- Eric Hosmer (35)
- Max Muncy (34)
- Albert Pujols (45)
- Anthony Rizzo (35)
- Miguel Sano (32)
- Carlos Santana (39)
- Luke Voit (34)
- Joey Votto (41)
- Christian Walker (34)
Top 10 First Base Prospects in 2025
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A big part of this process was projecting prospects into future MLB roles. As such, it's only fair that we filled that void by predicting who will be the 10 best first base prospects in 2025:
- Blaze Jordan, Boston Red Sox
- Jhonkensy Noel, Cleveland Indians
- Alexander Mojica, Pittsburgh Pirates
- Alex Toral, University of Miami (2021 draft prospect)
- Rece Hinds, Cincinnati Reds
- Garrett Frechette, San Francisco Giants
- A.J. Vukovich, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Bobby Seymour, Wake Forest (2021 draft prospect)
- Malcom Nunez, St. Louis Cardinals
- Grant Lavigne, Colorado Rockies
Nos. 25-21
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25. Bobby Bradley, Cleveland Indians (2025 Age: 29)
Part of the top prospect conversation in Cleveland for years, Bradley has huge raw power with a ton of swing-and-miss. He hit .264/.344/.567 with 33 home runs in 107 games at Triple-A in 2019, while also striking out 153 times at a 33.8 percent clip. Now that Carlos Santana is moving on, he'll compete for the vacant first base job in 2021.
24. Bryce Ball, Atlanta Braves (2025 Age: 26)
An imposing 6'6", 240-pound slugger, Ball joined the Braves as a 24th-round pick in 2019 out of Dallas Baptist and made a splash in his pro debut. In 62 games between rookie ball and Single-A, he hit .329/.395/.628 with 18 doubles, 17 home runs and 52 RBI. A lack of athleticism puts a lot of pressure on his bat, but the early returns are promising.
23. Drew Mendoza, Washington Nationals (2025 Age: 27)
Mendoza likely would have been a first-round pick in the 2016 draft if not for a strong commitment to Florida State. After he played three productive years at third base for the Seminoles, the Nationals selected him in the third round in 2019, and he has become the top position-player prospect in a thin system. He's still working to tap into his plus raw power, and his approach needs further refinement, but he has a clear path to playing time once he's ready.
22. Seth Beer, Arizona Diamondbacks (2025 Age: 28)
One of the most hyped college hitters in recent memory, Beer hit .321/.489/.648 with 56 home runs in his three seasons at Clemson. He has slid to the bottom of the defensive spectrum and has base-clogging speed, but he can flat-out hit. After posting a .289/.388/.516 line with 26 home runs and 103 RBI in 2019 while reaching Double-A, he should be knocking on the door soon.
21. Josh Bell, Pittsburgh Pirates (2025 Age: 33)
After posting a 142 OPS+ with 37 doubles, 37 home runs and 116 RBI during the 2019 season, Bell took a significant step backward in the shortened 2020 campaign. That makes the upcoming season an important oneโfree agency is fast approaching, and the rebuilding Pirates are likely looking to flip him for young, controllable talent. Where will he be in five years?
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Nos. 20-16
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20. Pavin Smith, Arizona Diamondbacks (2025 Age: 29)
The No. 7 overall pick in the 2017 draft, Smith has posted middling numbers while steadily climbing the ranks of the Arizona farm system. His polished approach has helped him tally nearly as many walks (143) as strikeouts (150) in the minors, and he hit .270/.341/.405 over 44 plate appearances after earning a September call-up. He has a high floor thanks to his feel for hitting, but his ceiling might not match his draft status.
19. Michael Toglia, Colorado Rockies (2025 Age: 26)
Toglia fits the prototypical power-hitting first baseman profile. He's a 6'5", 226-pound switch-hitter who posted a 1.016 OPS with 17 home runs and 65 RBI in 63 games during his junior season at UCLA. He still has some physical projection remaining, and he's a good enough athlete to be a plus defender at first base, so there's a chance he could climb higher if he develops as hoped.
18. Lewin Diaz, Miami Marlins (2025 Age: 28)
The Marlins may have acquired their first baseman of the future when they sent veteran reliever Sergio Romo to the Minnesota Twins at the 2019 deadline. Diaz hit .270/.321/.530 with 33 doubles, 27 home runs and 76 RBI in 121 games between High-A and Double-A in 2019, and he's just scratching the surface of his power potential. Another big step forward is very possible in the next couple of years.
17. Nate Lowe, Texas Rangers (2025 Age: 29)
Despite strong numbers in limited action, Lowe was never able to climb to the top of the depth chart in Tampa Bay. Now he's a member of the Texas Rangers after they acquired him in a six-player trade Thursday.
"We see him as a very good hitter, good approach with power, hit at every level," Rangers general manager Jon Daniels told reporters. "I told him to expect competition, but we made this deal anticipating he would win the job and be our first baseman. I think he is an upgrade at that spot, someone we can grow with."
16. Aaron Sabato, Minnesota Twins (2025 Age: 26)
With a strong 6'2", 230-pound frame and the best raw power in the 2020 draft class outside of Spencer Torkelson, Sabato could move quickly through the Minnesota farm system. He hit .343/.453/.696 with 25 doubles and 18 home runs as a freshman at North Carolina. He was well on his way to improving on those numbers as a draft-eligible sophomore before the 2020 season was halted.
Nos. 15-11
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15. Bobby Dalbec, Boston Red Sox (2025 Age: 30)
Dalbec slugged six home runs in his first 10 MLB games and posted a 152 OPS+ with eight long balls total in 92 plate appearances. However, he also struck out 39 times for a 42.4 percent strikeout rate. That has been a theme throughout his time in the minors as he fanned nearly 30 percent of the time. He draws enough walks to partially offset his swing-and-miss issues, but that could be what keeps him from becoming a star.
14. Jared Walsh, Los Angeles Angels (2025 Age: 31)
A two-way prospect who made his MLB debut in 2019 as a first baseman and a relief pitcher, Walsh was more of an oddity than a top-tier prospect heading into the 2020 season. That changed when he hit .337/.368/.744 with nine home runs and 26 RBI in 22 games in September. Now he's poised to take over as the everyday first baseman for the Angels in 2021. What will he do for an encore?
13. Mason Martin, Pittsburgh Pirates (2025 Age: 26)
Martin has a seat at the table in the conversation of best power-hitting prospect in minor league baseball. He posted a .908 OPS with 32 doubles, 35 home runs and 129 RBI in 131 games as a 20-year-old splitting the season between Single-A and High-A in 2019. He also struck out 168 times and is refining his approach at the plate, but it's easy to dream about his over-the-fence potential.
12. Rhys Hoskins, Philadelphia Phillies (2025 Age: 32)
Hoskins has dealt with some ups and downs over his first four MLB seasons, but his elite plate discipline (.366 OBP, 15.3 percent walk rate) and huge power give him a strong offensive foundation even when his batting average dips. Maybe something clicks and he moves up a tier, but this seems about right for an inconsistent hitter who will be on the wrong side of 30.
11. Ryan Mountcastle, Baltimore Orioles (2025 Age: 28)
A shortstop at the onset of his pro career, Mountcastle has slid down the defensive spectrum to first base, but he has hit every step of the way. He finally made his MLB debut at the end of August and batted .333/.386/.492 for a 140 OPS+ with five doubles, five home runs and 23 RBI in 35 games. He doesn't have elite power, but he should produce enough offensively to be a major piece of the puzzle in Baltimore.
10. Evan White, Seattle Mariners
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2025 Age: 29
The Seattle Mariners saw enough potential in Evan White to sign him to a six-year, $24 million extension that includes three club options before he made his MLB debut.
He hit an ugly .176/.252/.346 with a 41.6 percent strikeout rate serving as the team's everyday first baseman in 2020, but some growing pains were expected as he made the jump straight from Double-A.
Despite those struggles at the plate, he was an asset in the field, posting terrific defensive metrics (seven defensive runs saved, 7.3 UZR/150) to win the first of what could be many Gold Glove Awards.
He was a career .296/.361/.471 hitter over three minor league seasons, so there's no reason to think his bat won't come around as he gets more comfortable at the MLB level.
He may never hit for a ton of power, but his combination of on-base ability and defense gives him the upside of a healthy Brandon Belt.
9. Dominic Smith, New York Mets
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2025 Age: 30
It's highly unlikely that Dominic Smith and Pete Alonso will both still be playing for the New York Mets five years from now.
Smith has spent the bulk of the past two seasons manning left field to get his bat into the lineup, but he's miscast in the outfield (-8 DRS, -24.4 UZR/150) and will need to shift back to first base at some point.
Regardless of where he's playing, there's no ignoring his upward trajectory over the past three years:
- 2018: 149 PA, 85 OPS+, .224/.255/.420, 17 XBH (5 HR)
- 2019: 197 PA, 132 OPS+, .282/.355/.525, 21 XBH (11 HR)
- 2020: 199 PA, 169 OPS+, .316/.377/.616, 32 XBH (10 HR)
Strong peripherals and a first-round pedigree say he's the real deal.
8. Freddie Freeman, Atlanta Braves
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2025 Age: 35
My best guess for Freddie Freeman's career progression is something similar to Todd Helton.
A perennial 40-homer threat in his prime, Helton averaged just 12 home runs per season after his age-31 campaign, but he still hit .289/.388/.448 for a 111 OPS+ over the final eight years of his career.
Even if his power starts to trend in the wrong direction in his mid-30s, Freeman is a good enough hitter to be an impact player offensively.
Free agency is looming after the 2021 season, but all signs indicate the Atlanta Braves will lock him up with a final long-term deal that would allow him to retire with the team that drafted him in the second round in 2007.
7. Alex Kirilloff, Minnesota Twins
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2025 Age: 27
Shortly after making his pro debut as the No. 15 overall pick in the 2016 draft, Alex Kirilloff underwent Tommy John surgery, and he spent the entire 2017 season recovering.
He returned to hit .348/.392/.578 with 44 doubles, seven triples, 20 home runs and 101 RBI between Single-A and High-A in 2018, rocketing up leaguewide prospect lists.
A nagging wrist injury led to a dip in production across the board at Double-A the following year, but he remains an elite prospect with a 60-grade hit tool and solid skills across the board.
He made his MLB debut in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series, starting in right field and going 1-for-4 at the plate. He appears to have a clear path to the Minnesota Twins' starting left field job in 2021 after Eddie Rosario was non-tendered.
However, he may fit best at first base long-term with a crowded outfield in Minnesota, and he began seeing time there during the 2019 season.
6. Triston Casas, Boston Red Sox
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2025 Age: 25
Selected with the No. 26 overall pick in the 2018 draft, Triston Casas played just two games in rookie ball that year before suffering a torn ligament in his thumb. That didn't stop the Boston Red Sox from aggressively assigning him to Single-A the following year.
He responded by hitting .254/.349/.472 with 25 doubles, 19 home runs and 78 RBI as a teenager in the Sally League. He then went 3-for-7 with a double and a home run in two games with High-A Salem to finish out a stellar first full season in the organization.
With a 50-grade hit tool and 60-grade raw power, Casas has all the makings of a middle-of-the-order offensive star, and he still has plenty of room to grow physically.
He has seen some time at third base where his strong arm plays well, but he's destined for first base where he should develop into a standout defender.
5. Andrew Vaughn, Chicago White Sox
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2025 Age: 27
In a full-length 2020 season, Andrew Vaughn might have made his MLB debut a year after he went No. 3 overall in the 2019 draft to the Chicago White Sox.
In three college seasons at California, he hit .374/.495/.688 with 50 home runs, 163 RBI and more walks (123) than strikeouts (75) in 160 games.
He went 9-for-15 with two doubles and one home run in three rookie league games to earn a quick promotion to Single-A, and he closed out his pro debut at High-A Winston-Salem.
Reigning AL MVP Jose Abreu is entrenched at first base on the South Side, but as soon as Vaughn is ready, Abreu will shift to the DH role to clear a path.
There has not been a more polished college hitter in the last decade, and he could make a serious push for the No. 1 spot on this list if everything clicks.
4. Pete Alonso, New York Mets
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2025 Age: 30
After a record-setting rookie season, some regression was unavoidable for Pete Alonso.
He hit .260/.358/.583 with 53 home runs and 120 RBI in 2019, winning NL Rookie of the Year honors and finishing seventh in NL MVP balloting.
Those numbers dipped to a .231/.326/.490 line with 16 home runs and 35 RBI during the shortened season, but he recovered nicely from a brutal start to post a .955 OPS with 10 home runs in September.
Beneath the surface, he actually trimmed his strikeout rate from 26.4 to 25.5 percent while maintaining a walk rate of at least 10 percent, and his exit velocity and hard-hit rates were right in line with his 2019 numbers.
In other words, there's a good chance he'll land somewhere between his 2019 and 2020 production going forward. That should be enough to make him one of baseball's best run producers for years to come.
3. Matt Olson, Oakland Athletics
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2025 Age: 31
An extremely productive player on both sides of the ball since establishing himself in the big leagues, Matt Olson has tallied 13.5 WAR going back to the start of the 2017 season.
Here's a look at where that fits among other first basemen during that span:
- Freddie Freeman: 17.3
- Paul Goldschmidt: 16.7
- Joey Votto: 13.8
- Matt Olson: 13.5
- Anthony Rizzo: 12.1
- Jose Abreu: 11.3
- Carlos Santana: 10.3
- Max Muncy: 10.0
In 2019, he had a 139 OPS+ with 36 home runs and won his second straight Gold Glove Award. While his numbers dipped in 2020, his peripherals remained strong, and a bounce-back season is likely.
2. Spencer Torkelson, Detroit Tigers
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2025 Age: 25
Consider me sold on Spencer Torkelson's long-term upside.
The No. 1 overall pick in the 2020 draft hit .337/.463/.729 with 54 home runs in 129 games at Arizona State, and he was well on his way to breaking the school record for home runs before the season was halted.
He raked in two different trips to the Cape Cod League, so there are no concerns about the transition to wood bats. He showed a more patient approach this past spring when teams started pitching around him, walking 31 times in 82 plate appearances.
The Detroit Tigers could pencil him in at first base and in the cleanup spot in the batting order to begin the 2021 season and he wouldn't be overmatched, but there's no reason to rush him to the big leagues while they continue to rebuild.
Detroit drafted him as a third baseman, and he'll get some looks there to begin his pro career. However, his long-term future is at first base where he has all the tools to develop into one of the most complete offensive players in baseball and a bona fide superstar.
1. Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Toronto Blue Jays
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2025 Age: 26
It's important to remember Vladimir Guerrero Jr. will be turning 22 years old in March.
At an age when most players are just reaching the upper levels of the minor leagues, he already has two big league seasons under his belt.
While production has not matched lofty expectations to this point, a 109 OPS+ and 67 extra-base hits in 757 plate appearances is nothing to scoff at for a player his age.
He needs to stay on top of his conditioning, but the offensive skills that earned him a top-of-the-scale 80-grade hit tool as a prospect remain, and he's flashed his light-tower power on multiple occasions.
Even if he moves back to third base in 2021, first base is his eventual home, and the potential remains for him to develop into an elite hitter and a perennial batting title contender with prime Miguel Cabrera upside.
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs. Prospect tool ratings via MLB.com.
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