Top Landing Spots and Trade Packages for Phillies SP Zack Wheeler Amid Rumors
Is Philadelphia Phillies right-hander Zack Wheeler available via trade this offseason?
That's been a tough question to answer the last few days.
Over the weekend, a rumor emerged that the Phillies were listening to offers on Wheeler just one season after he signed a five-year, $118 million contract. The first year of that deal was a rousing success, as he posted a 2.92 ERA and 1.17 WHIP in 11 starts to finish 12th in National League Cy Young Award voting.
With the Phillies heavily invested in their core and eyeing contention, the idea of trading Wheeler was surprising to say the least, and the team quickly responded to the rumor.
"If they offered me Babe Ruth, I wouldn't trade him," Phillies managing partner John Middleton told Buster Olney of ESPN, who had broken the original news. "I have authorized no one to have a conversation about trading him."
Aside from that being a ridiculous thing to say, it also might not be the truth, as Jeff Passan of ESPN wrote Monday:
"Now, either there is a giant conspiracy to manufacture a story that the Phillies were open to hearing Zack Wheeler proposals or it actually happened. And considering three high-ranking executives on other teams confirmed to me that Olney's reporting was accurate, perhaps instead of being angry, Middleton should see those discussions as a positive thing. Because successful, pragmatic, creative front offices always listen to proposals for good players."
Passan noted Wheeler's remaining salary will be an obvious hurdle in any trade. That could mean swapping Wheeler for pennies on the dollar if Philadelphia does trade him.
It would be a cost-cutting move that allows the Phillies to spend money elsewhere, and the financial savings would trump the return package in terms of value to the organization.
That's important to keep in mind while assessing the following packages.
Why Other Teams Were Not Included
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Here's a quick-hit rundown of why the teams not included as potential landing spots were removed from the conversation:
- ARI: Rebuilding, non-contender
- ATL: Unlikely to trade in-division
- BAL: Rebuilding, non-contender
- CWS: Rotation addressed with Lance Lynn trade
- CIN: Shopping Sonny Gray
- CLE: Cutting costs
- COL: Lacking trade assets
- DET: Rebuilding, non-contender
- KC: Rebuilding, non-contender
- LAD: Already have six starters vying for five spots
- MIA: Unlikely to trade in-division
- MIL: Lacking trade assets
- MIN: Small-market team, unlikely to take on remaining salary
- NYM: Unlikely to trade in-division
- OAK: Small-market team, unlikely to take on remaining salary
- PIT: Rebuilding, non-contender
- SF: Rebuilding, unlikely to trade young assets
- SEA: Rebuilding, non-contender
- STL: Focused on upgrading offense
- TB: Small-market team, unlikely to move controllable talent
- TEX: Rebuilding, non-contender
- WAS: Unlikely to trade in-division
Boston Red Sox
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The Fit
Even if Chris Sale and Eduardo Rodriguez return fully healthy in 2021, the Boston Red Sox still need further rotation help if they are going to make a swift return to contention in the American League East.
The Return Package
- SP Nathan Eovaldi
- OF Nick Decker
- SP Chris Murphy
If the Phillies are looking to lessen their financial commitment without creating a gaping hole in the starting rotation, this trade package makes a lot of sense.
Nathan Eovaldi has two years and $34 million left on his contract and, compared to the four years and $96.5 million owed to Wheeler, would stand as a cost-cutting addition.
The 30-year-old rebounded from a disappointing 2019 season to post a 3.72 ERA, 1.20 WHIP and 52 strikeouts in 48.1 innings in 2020.
Prospects Nick Decker and Chris Murphy represent the type of second-tier talent the Phillies can expect to bring back in exchange for the high-priced Wheeler.
Decker, 21, has the significant raw power and strong arm to profile as a future right fielder and middle-of-the-order hitter if he can make more consistent contact.
Murphy, 22, showed vastly improved command in his pro debut after walking six batters per nine innings during his junior season at the University of San Diego. He posted a 1.08 ERA with a 34-to-7 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 33.1 innings at Low-A after signing and showed four average or better offerings.
Chicago Cubs
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The Fit
The Chicago Cubs have Yu Darvish and Kyle Hendricks staked to the first two spots in the starting rotation, but the rest of the staff is a question mark. Alec Mills and Adbert Alzolay showed enough potential to warrant a longer look in 2021, but they will need to add at least one proven starter.
The Return Package
- RP Craig Kimbrel
- SP Kohl Franklin
- 3B Christopher Morel
Taking on Craig Kimbrel and the final two years and $32 million of his contract would allow the Phillies to extract a better prospect return from the Cubs. It would also add a high-leverage arm to a bullpen in need of help if he can build on his strong finish to a shaky 2020 season.
Kohl Franklin has one of the highest ceilings of any pitching prospect in the Cubs system. The 21-year-old has a projectable 6'4", 190-pound frame with three plus pitches and a good enough feel for pitching to believe he can develop into a middle-of-the-rotation starter.
Christopher Morel has solid tools across the board with 55-grade power, 55-grade speed and the defensive acumen and athleticism to play all over the diamond.
Two quality prospects with extremely high ceilings, a potential bullpen anchor and more than $60 million in savings could be enough to convince the Phillies to make a move if this is a financially motivated decision.
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Houston Astros
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The Fit
With Justin Verlander recovering from Tommy John surgery and Zack Greinke showing signs of age in 2020, the Houston Astros starting rotation became heavily reliant on youngsters Framber Valdez, Cristian Javier and Jose Urquidy. Adding a veteran to the mix could go a long way as they start to retool the roster.
The Return Package
- SP Luis Garcia
- IF/OF Taylor Jones
- RP Nivaldo Rodriguez
With Verlander ($33 million) and Greinke ($24.7 million) coming off the books after the 2021 season, the Astros might not be as focused on offsetting salaries by moving a high-priced piece the other way as proposed with the Nathan Eovaldi and Craig Kimbrel swaps.
That means the Phillies would accept less player value in return for an opportunity to unload more salary.
Luis Garcia would give Philadelphia an MLB-ready arm who impressed in his MLB debut with a 2.92 ERA and just seven hits allowed in 12.1 innings. He went 10-4 with a 2.98 ERA and 168 strikeouts in 108.2 innings in Single-A and High-A in 2019 while being used primarily as a starter, and he could fill a spot in the rotation or bullpen.
Taylor Jones is a 6'7" slugger who has played both corner infield and outfield spots. The 27-year-old hit .291/.388/.501 with 28 doubles, 22 home runs and 84 RBI at Triple-A in 2019.
Nivaldo Rodriguez has a devastating 60-grade curveball and mid-90s fastball, and he could step into a bullpen role after making his major league debut in 2020.
That's three MLB-ready pieces and $22.5 million in payroll flexibility in 2021 for offloading Wheeler. If the Phillies have their sights set on spending that money elsewhere in free agency, this deal could pique their interest.
Los Angeles Angels
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The Fit
The Los Angeles Angels have made some nice additions via trades already this offseason in shortstop Jose Iglesias and closer Raisel Iglesias. That said, starting pitching remains No. 1 on their offseason shopping list after their group posted a 5.52 ERA (29th in MLB) last season.
The Return Package
- RP Mike Mayers
- OF Jordyn Adams
- SP Hector Yan
The Angels are another team that might be willing to take on Wheeler's remaining salary without offloading any high-priced players of their own if it meant getting the frontline starter they need.
While most teams are unlikely to part with a prospect such as Jordyn Adams to acquire Wheeler, Wheeler could be the missing piece for the Angels.
Los Angeles has a future outfield of Mike Trout, Jo Adell and Brandon Marsh, so Adams is an expendable piece even though he has one of the highest ceilings in the system. The No. 17 pick in the 2018 draft has the potential for five-plus tools, including 80-grade speed and intriguing untapped raw power.
Left-hander Hector Yan is undersized at 5'11", but he has been extremely effective, including a 2019 season in which he logged a 3.39 ERA and 148 strikeouts in 109 innings at Single-A.
Rounding out the package is controllable MLB reliever Mike Mayers, who was quietly one of the most dominant setup men in the game last season. The 29-year-old posted a 2.10 ERA and 12.9 strikeouts per nine innings with two saves and five holds in 29 appearances, and he's controllable through 2023.
New York Yankees
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The Fit
With Masahiro Tanaka on the free-agent market and Luis Severino on the mend, the only sure thing in the New York Yankees rotation is Gerrit Cole. That has to change if they are serious about contending for a title in 2021.
The Return Package
- RP Adam Ottavino
- OF Estevan Florial
- SP Luis Gil
- SP/RP Trevor Stephan
Agreeing to take on Adam Ottavino and his $9 million salary in 2021 would help the Yankees fit Wheeler's salary on the books. On the other side, the Phillies would pick up an effective bullpen arm if he can return to his 2019 form of a 1.90 ERA and 11.9 K/9 with 28 holds in 73 appearances.
Packaging him along with a prime change of scenery candidate in Estevan Florial would give the Phillies a potential answer in center field, provided he can tap into the tremendous upside he showed in the lower levels of the minors a few years ago. Prior to the 2018 season, Florial ranked No. 38 on the Baseball America Top 100 prospect list, but his development has stalled in the upper levels of the minors.
The real prize of this package, however, is the hard-throwing Luis Gil.
The 22-year-old has a 75-grade fastball that touches triple digits and a power slider, giving him a high floor as a late-inning reliever. He has made strides with his changeup but will need to improve his command to stick as a starter. He has top-of-the-rotation potential if everything clicks.
The Rule 5 draft-eligible Trevor Stephan rounds out the trade proposal as an MLB-ready arm who could contribute in a multi-inning role out of the bullpen or perhaps even as a No. 5 starter. His deceptive mechanics help his stuff play up, and he's been successful in the minors despite less than elite stuff.
San Diego Padres
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The Fit
The San Diego Padres will be without Mike Clevinger while he recovers from Tommy John surgery, and they could also lose Garrett Richards via free agency, leaving multiple spots to fill in the starting rotation.
The Return Package
- C Francisco Mejia
- RP David Bednar
- SP Lake Bachar
If the Phillies don't feel confident they have a chance to re-sign J.T. Realmuto, this trade could fill the void behind the plate.
Francisco Mejia has fallen down the depth chart in San Diego with Austin Nola taking over as the catcher of the present and Luis Campusano waiting in the wings as the catchers of the future. Mejia remains a work in progress behind the plate, but he still has the offensive tools to be a star.
He was a top 50 prospect in baseball three years running from 2017 to 2019, according to Baseball America, and he hit .295/.349/.462 over seven minor league seasons with a 50-game hitting streak on his resume.
David Bednar has nothing left to prove in the minors after logging a 2.95 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 13.3 K/9 in 44 appearances at Double-A in 2019, and he would serve as an addition to the MLB bullpen and a controllable long-term piece.
Right-hander Lake Bachar is a Rule 5 draft candidate after he was left unprotected, and he looks like a useful MLB piece after posting a 3.93 ERA with 133 strikeouts in 132.2 innings at High-A and Double-A in 2019.
This stands as another cost-cutting return package for the Phillies and would also address one of their more glaring holes.
Toronto Blue Jays
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The Fit
The Toronto Blue Jays are the biggest offseason wild card, with at least some level of interest in seemingly everyone on the market. With a questionable starting staff behind ace Hyun Jin Ryu, Wheeler would provide a major upgrade to the rotation.
The Return Package
- C Reese McGuire
- SP/RP Ryan Borucki
- SP Adam Kloffenstein
The upside of Adam Kloffenstein is the key to this package.
The 6'5", 243-pound right-hander does not appear on leaguewide Top 100 prospect lists, but he could arrive in short order with four above-average pitches, solid command and further projectability. He's still just 20 years old, and there's a reason the Blue Jays gave him a $2.5 million bonus after he was picked in the third round of the 2018 draft.
He would join Spencer Howard and Francisco Morales as top-tier pitching prospects in the Philadelphia system.
Reese McGuire would address the catcher question as a young backstop controllable through the 2025 season. He hit .299/.346/.526 with 12 extra-base hits in 105 plate appearances in 2019 and has primary catcher upside.
Ryan Borucki is just two years removed from posting a 3.87 ERA and 3.79 FIP in 97.2 innings over 17 starts as a rookie. The 26-year-old spent 2020 in the bullpen, pitching to a 2.70 ERA with 11.3 K/9 in 21 appearances, so he would give the Phillies a controllable swingman.
All these trade packages may seem light, but this is the kind of return the Phillies can expect if they are serious about dealing Wheeler. His hefty salary leaves little room for much return value, and with teams pinching pennies this offseason, that's going to be a roadblock in trade talks.
That said, if flipping him gives the Phillies a few quality MLB-ready pieces and some financial flexibility, perhaps they'll be better for it in 2021 and beyond.
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.
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