Fantasy Football Week 12: Start 'Em, Sit 'Em

It's Thanksgiving week, which means quite a few things.

It means eating a ridiculous amount of turkey and far too many slices of pie.

It means time spent with family and friends, although much of that will unfortunately have to be done virtually this year.

It means a Thursday triple-header of NFL action that's as much a part of the holiday as those pies.

And it means that the fantasy football playoffs are right around the corner.

With so many fantasy managers hanging on to postseason aspirations by a thread, more folks than ever are ruminating over every lineup decision. Trying to milk their starting lineup for every possible point.

And with Week 12 getting off to an early start, we decided to do the same with this Thanksgiving edition of fantasy football start/sit here at Bleacher Report.

Each week, I look over lineup questions on the Bleacher Report app and then give answers that will (hopefully) aid fantasy managers in setting a winning lineup. Let's chow down.

Editor's Note: Per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport, the Ravens-Steelers games has been postponed to Sunday afternoon. 

Making the Best of a Bad Situation

From the Bleacher Report App

This question is as good a place to start as any this week, because it will allow us to address the elephant in the Week 12 room. With this column running a day early this week due to the holiday, it will go live before the first injury report of the week comes out.

That means unless we have definitive information that a player will be available in Week 12, we're going to operate under the assumption that those who didn't play last week won't this week, either.

In this case, though, we do have that info. Seattle Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll indicated in last Friday's presser that he expects running back Chris Carson back in Week 12 against the Philadelphia Eagles.

Carson's injury isn't his only problem this week, though. Even though Nick Chubb peeled off a big game last week, the Eagles are still allowing the seventh-fewest PPR points to running backs in 2020.

That leaves a trio of wide receivers. Mike Williams of the Los Angeles Chargers had a decent 4/72/1 line last week, but he hasn't caught five passes in a game since Week 9. Jakobi Meyers of the New England Patriots came back to earth last week, managing only three catches for 38 yards against the Houston Texans. DeVante Parker is the No. 1 wide receiver for the Miami Dolphins, but given that Tua Tagovailoa has failed to hit 100 passing yards in two of four starts, that may not mean much.

Still, Parker's touchdown last week was with Tagovailoa at quarterback, and the Dolphins face a struggling Jets secondary giving up the sixth-most PPR points to wide receivers that just got roasted like a turkey by Justin Herbert.

Why wait for the obligatory Thanksging metaphor (or six)?

The Call: DeVante Parker (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,900)

Stack Attack

From the Bleacher Report App

The "if Swift is out" part of this question looms large.

D'Andre Swift of the Detroit Lions is an easy call here against the Houston Texans and their NFL-worst run defense if he plays. However, he's still in the NFL's concussion protocol. While he was limited in practice Tuesday, the Lions play on Thanksgiving, leaving him precious little time to get cleared.

Sadly, we have to plan for him sitting.

Chase Edmonds of the Arizona Cardinals isn't an option here, either. With Kenyan Drake back, Edmonds had only six touches last week against the Seahawks. That isn't going to cut it.

Christian Kirk of the Cardinals is also a pass against the New England Patriots. The young wideout has had his moments in 2020, but he has only eight catches for 77 yards over the last two games combined.

More often than not, the smart play is to defer to the running back since touches equal opportunities for fantasy production. But Ronald Jones II of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers has been one of the more maddening lead backs in the league. Two weeks ago, he piled up 24 touches and almost 200 total yards. But on Monday night against the Los Angeles Rams, he didn't clear 25 yards.

The play here is Indianapolis Colts wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. The rookie is quickly becoming the top wide receiver in Indy, with 10 catches for 167 yards and a score over the past two games.

Look no further than Pittman's stat line two weeks ago against the same Tennessee Titans team that the Colts host Sunday: seven catches on eight targets for 101 yards. That he has a nice DFS price point is icing on the cake.

The quarterback call is relatively easy. Philip Rivers of the Colts has been solid of late, averaging almost 300 passing yards and two scores per game the past two weeks. Jared Goff was great against the Buccaneers on Monday, but he has been up and down and draws a tough Week 12 matchup against the San Francisco 49ers.

Anyone for a little fantasy stack action?

The Call: Michael Pittman Jr. (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,000), Philip Rivers (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,100)

The Scrapheap Isn't So Bad

From the Bleacher Report App

Given the kind of season we've had at running back, this isn't a terrible set of options to choose from.

It looks like Christian McCaffrey of the Carolina Panthers will remain sidelined this week, which means at least one more week of featured-back duties for Mike Davis. The sixth-year veteran has cooled off after a hot start in McCaffrey's stead, but he did amass 21 touches for 79 yards and a touchdown last week against the Lions.

The first spot is his.

Washington's J.D. McKissic is a decent flex option, as he's taken over duties as the third-down back in the nation's capital. But he isn't much more than decent. The 69 total yards he racked up last week against the Bengals was much closer to his ceiling than his floor.

Melvin Gordon III of the Denver Broncos is coming off a huge game against the Miami Dolphins, scoring twice and picking up 84 yards on 15 carries. But that marked the first time he had topped 50 rushing yards since Week 7, and his workload concerns eliminate him from consideration here.

That leaves two comparable options that absolutely no one had interest in before the season: Wayne Gallman of the New York Giants and Salvon Ahmed of the Dolphins.

At first glance, this is close to a coin flip. But while Gallman has averaged less than four yards per carry in three of his last four games, the fourth-year pro has also scored five touchdowns over that span.

Winner, winner, turkey dinner.

The Call: Mike Davis (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,900), Wayne Gallman (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,000)

The Overthink Trap

From the Bleacher Report App

With so many fantasy managers in a must-win situation to keep their playoff hopes alive, it's only natural at this time of year to examine every lineup decision closely.

But overthinking can be a dangerous thing.

In his first game against the Baltimore Ravens this year, Diontae Johnson caught only one of his three targets for six years. But in the three games since, he's racked up 24 receptions for 304 yards and a touchdown on a whopping 37 targets.

You just can't bench a guy getting 12-plus targets a game.

The second spot is a closer call at first glance. Carolina Panthers wideout DJ Moore has been all over the place this season, but he's been riding a hot streak as of late. Over the last two weeks, Moore has 11 catches for 223 yards and a touchdown despite an injury-induced quarterback change in Carolina.

Jamison Crowder of the New York Jets is headed in the exact opposite direction. After a smoking-hot start, Crowder has hauled in only three receptions for 42 yards and a score over the past two games.

Even if Sam Darnold (shoulder) is cleared to play in Week 12, Crowder is bringing up the back end of this trio.

The Call: Diontae Johnson (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,200), DJ Moore (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,200)

Flattery Will Get You Everywhere

From the Bleacher Report App

This question carries both an addendum and an assumption. The addendum is that in another post, this reader stated that he also has Colts wideout Michael Pittman Jr.

The assumption is a starting lineup of two running backs, three receivers, a flex and a tight end.

The first running back spot is an easy one. After notching his first 100-yard rushing effort of the season, Ezekiel Elliott of the Dallas Cowboys is an easy yes. The second spot goes to Duke Johnson of the Houston Texans, who should see at least 15 touches against a Detroit Lions defense allowing the most PPR points to running backs this year.

At wide receiver, Allen Robinson II of the Bears is the fifth-most targeted wideout in the NFL and an every-week start, regardless of which terrible quarterback his team punishes him with. As was already mentioned, Pittman and Diontae Johnson of the Steelers have been riding hot streaks of late. Pittman has a top-five fantasy matchup with the Tennessee Titans in Week 12 to boot.

The tight end spot is a toss-up between two less-than stellar options with bad matchups in Houston's Jordan Akins and Gerald Everett of the Rams. Akins hauled in five catches for 83 yards against the Patriots in Week 11, but he has also been all over the place. Still, at least he offers a ceiling—one worth risking a doughnut on.

That leaves the flex spot. While Curtis Samuel of the Panthers, Sterling Shepard of the Giants and J.D. McKissic of Washington have some appeal, the final spot belongs to James White of the Patriots, who should see an uptick in touches with Rex Burkhead sidelined by a likely season-ending knee injury.

The Call: Ezekiel Elliott (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,800), Duke Johnson (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,700), Allen Robinson II (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,400), Michael Pittman Jr. (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,000), Diontae Johnson (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,200), Jordan Akins (DraftKings DFS Value: $2,900), James White (DraftKings DFS Value: $4,500)

Duke-Ing It Out

From the Bleacher Report App

There isn't a week that goes by that I don't peruse the wide receiver questions, look at my own dumpster fires ("options," whatever) at the position and then sob softly.

One of these spots is an easy(ish) call. Minnesota Vikings rookie wideout Justin Jefferson has four 100-yard games, an equal number of touchdowns, ranks inside the top-20 PPR receivers for the year and has more fantasy points than any rookie wideout not named Chase Claypool.

From there, things cloud up.

Carolina's DJ Moore has been hot as of late, but he also has tended to be high-variance at times. The same goes for CeeDee Lamb of the Dallas Cowboys, although he has found the end zone in each of his past two games. Brandin Cooks of the Houston Texans has quietly scored double-digit PPR points in five of his past six games, and he barely missed the mark in that last one.

But for the final spot, we're going with a player who appears to be making a case to be this week's poster boy. Although Duke Johnson of the Texans is averaging less than three yards per carry, he's touched the ball at least 13 times in each of his last three games, and he's heading into a matchup with a Lions team giving up the most PPR points to running backs in 2020.

Plus, it gives you a reason to yell at the TV while slamming mashed potatoes into your face Thursday.

Just don't do them simultaneously.

The Call: Justin Jefferson (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,300), Duke Johnson (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,700),

The Defense Rests

From the Bleacher Report App

See? Told you that Duke Johnson was making a play for a photo on the ol' front page.

The problem here isn't Johnson's struggles moving the ball since taking over as Houston's lead running back, although that's a viable concern. The Los Angeles Chargers plan to designate running back Austin Ekeler for return from injured reserve, per Tom Pelissero of NFL Network, but his status for Sunday remains unclear. And with Johnson playing on Thursday, fantasy managers can't wait and see how things shake out.

Johnson's matchup is so good that it's worth jumping the gun on Ekeler's possible return.

The real reason this question got mentioned is that defense queries are a nice change of pace.

Both of these defenses are excellent plays. The Saints play a Denver Broncos team that leads the league in giveaways and ranks third in points per game allowed to defenses. The Giants get a Cincinnati Bengals team that sat one slot behind them before rookie quarterback Joe Burrow got hurt.

The two are also nearly identical in fantasy points scored in 2020, because of course they are. It's essentially a "no wrong answer" situation.

However, the Broncos at least showed some signs of life offensively last week, while the Bengals under backup quarterback Ryan Finley were abysmal.

That breaks the tie and makes Big Blue the play.

The Call: Duke Johnson (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,700), New York Giants defense (DraftKings DFS Value: $3,200)

A Very 2020 Question

From the Bleacher Report App

If Adam Thielen of the Vikings can clear the COVID-19 list ahead of this week's matchup with the Carolina Panthers, he's a must-start. He received one positive test and one negative test, according to Tom Pelissero of NFL Network, which puts his status for Sunday in doubt.

Now for the Plan B option.

Travis Fulgham of the Eagles had his moments when the Philly wideout corps was chewed to pieces by injuries. But as the Eagles have gotten healthier, he has faded, and the second-year pro has only one eight-yard catch in each of the last two games.

Mecole Hardman of the Kansas City Chiefs is a threat to score every time he touches the ball. However, the young speedster has three or fewer targets in four out of his last six games.

Allen Lazard of the Green Bay Packers appeared to have emerged as the No. 2 receiver in Titletown before landing on injured reserve earlier this season. But in his first game back last week against the Colts, Lazard managed only two catches on four targets for 18 yards.

That brings us to Curtis Samuel of the Carolina Panthers, who had eight catches for 70 yards and a score last week against Detroit. That game was the third in four weeks in which Samuel found the end zone, and the former Ohio State star has been a top-five PPR receiver over that four-week span.

He's a relatively easy call here against an iffy Vikings secondary allowing the fourth-most PPR points per game to receivers in 2020.

The Call: Curtis Samuel (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,100)

DraftKings DFS Player of the Week

From the Bleacher Report App

Well at least this is an easy question: "Win me a million dollars."

Piece of cake, right?

A big part of having success in a big tournament like this is finding cheaper players who post big scores. That allows you to afford big-ticket performers like Washington wideout Terry McLaurin or Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson.

There are a few such options at running back on Thanksgiving, including this week's cover boy.

Yes, there's risk involved in trusting Johnson on Thursday given his underwhelming performance thus far this season. But the Detroit run defense is horrific. Only two teams in the league allow more yards per game on the ground than the 139.0 that Detroit gives up.

The other back plays in the nightcap, and he's the beneficiary of unfortunate circumstances in Baltimore.

You can't often get a starting running back who has averaged 4.4 yards per carry and will see 15-plus touches for $4,000. But that's the salary for Gus Edwards after J.K. Dobbins and Mark Ingram II both landed on the COVID-19 list.

Adrian Peterson of the Lions draws Houston's NFL-worst run defense with a $4,700 salary, but this isn't 2011.

If I had to take one of them as the kind of home run play you need to win a tournament, it's Edwards, despite the bad matchup.

No guts, no glory.

The Call: Gus Edwards (DraftKings DFS Value: $4,000)

Rapid Fire

Wade Payne/Associated Press

Now it's time to close this week's column out with a Thanksgiving Week edition of Rapid Fire.

I hope all of you and your families have a safe and happy Turkey Day!

CRussell is looking for some flex help. "Who should I start at flex (.5PPR)? (Salvon) Ahmed, A.J. Brown or Duke J(ohnson)?"

I've already said all there is to say about Johnson, and Ahmed has been OK as Miami's lead back over the last two weeks. But A.J. Brown of the Tennessee Titans (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,700) has scored in six of eight games this season. Don't be scared off by his down game against Indy two weeks ago.

TheSpititus needs a quarterback. "Carson Wentz or Justin Herbert?"

As bad as Carson Wentz has been much of this season, he has remained a fantasy-relevant quarterback for most of the season. But this is no contest. In terms of fantasy points per game, Justin Herbert (DraftKings DFS Value: $7,200) of the Los Angeles Chargers has been a top-five option since taking over in Week 2. The sixth overall pick in 2020 has five games with over 300 yards and five with three scores this season.

JacksonEllis wants Thanksgiving Day help. "Got a Thanksgiving Day flex decision. (Kenny) Golladay, JuJu (Smith-Schuster), (Chase) Claypool or (J.D.) McKissic?

Were Golladay (hip) 100 percent or close to it, this would be tough, but you can afford to duck the injury. McKissic's touch-share and JuJu's targets are both legitimate worries, but with 10 scores in as many games, Pittsburgh's Chase Claypool (DraftKings DFS Value: $6,100) has been the top rookie wideout in 2020. Last time out against the Ravens, Claypool caught five passes for 42 yards and a score.

The Chargers rookie signal-caller is the subject of another query from stephegger. "Russ or Herbert?"

The turkey coma is apparently kicking in early. Herbert has been great, and he draws a much better fantasy matchup this week than Russell Wilson (DraftKings DFS Value: $7,500) of the Seahawks. But Arizona's Kyler Murray is the only signal-caller in the league with more fantasy points this season than Wilson. Roll him out against the Eagles on Monday night.

nathanshov88 has an interesting tight end question. "Start Dallas Goedert (vs. SEA) or Mark Andrews (at PIT)."

This is a very interesting question, especially since Mark Andrews (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,200) of the Ravens managed only three catches for 22 yards last time out against a Pittsburgh Steelers defense that ranks dead last in PPR points surrendered to tight ends. With that said, Goedert's matchup ranks in the bottom five too, so it isn't enough to swing the needle toward him.

RadChad22 needs a running back for Week 12. "PPR…Kalen Ballage or Giovani Bernard?"

Kalen Ballage of the Chargers averaged only 2.8 yards a carry last week against the Jets, but he caught seven passes to salvage his PPR stat line. Giovani Bernard (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,700) of the Bengals wasn't as productive last week, but he draws a much better Week 12 matchup against a Giants team allowing the seventh-most PPR points to running backs in 2020. That matchup (and the possible return of Austin Ekeler) is the difference here.

Finally, cphillips876 has a rather depressing wide receiver question. "Standard scoring. DJ Chark or Tyler Boyd?"

Both of these young wide receivers have had their fantasy value capped significantly by poor quarterback play. With that said, Jake Luton has at least shown some ability to push the ball down the field, and the Jaguars get a marginally better fantasy matchup Sunday for wide receivers against the Cleveland Browns. It's pretty close, but Jacksonville's DJ Chark JR. (DraftKings DFS Value: $5,200) is the play.

DFS player salaries courtesy of DraftKings. Fantasy scoring data courtesy of FFToday. Fantasy points per game against data courtesy of My Fantasy League.

Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year.

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