Ranking Kyler Murray and the Best Dark-Horse NFL MVP Candidates

The NFL MVP race may be down to just two players halfway through the 2020 season. Still, a few dark-horse candidates could force their way into the argument in the second half of the year, including Arizona Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray.

Oddsmakers have Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson as the clear favorite to win this year's MVP award, according to DraftKings. That's not surprising considering Wilson is putting up career numbers, throwing for 2,151 yards and 26 touchdowns with a 120.8 passer rating through seven games.

Kansas City's Patrick Mahomes and Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers are relatively close to Wilson in the MVP race, coming in at 4-1 and 5-1 odds, respectively. Tom Brady of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is the only other player with better than 25-1 odds to win.

Wilson is on pace to break Peyton Manning's single-season record of 55 passing touchdowns. However, with nine more weeks of football left to play, some under-the-radar players could go off in the second half to get into the MVP conversation.

Let's take a look at five players who have had strong starts to 2020 and could find themselves in the MVP race at the end of the season.

5. Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans

Wade Payne/Associated Press

The last running back to win MVP was Adrian Peterson in 2012, but there's an outside chance Derrick Henry could bully himself into that conversation with a huge second half.

Henry leads the NFL in rushing with 775 yards and has eight touchdowns. As a workhorse for the Titans, he has a league-leading 161 carries while averaging an impressive 4.8 yards per rushing attempt.

The issue is that he will need a massive second half of the season statistically to keep up with the numbers Wilson and Mahomes are putting up. It took 2,097 rushing yards for Peterson to secure the award in 2012, but he also benefited from significant media hype after returning from a torn ACL suffered in the previous season.

In order for Henry to have a fighting chance, the Titans would likely need to secure the top spot in the AFC. The 26-year-old would also need to win the league's rushing title by a wide margin while finding the end zone as frequently as possible.

Henry is a 60-1 underdog to win MVP, but if any running back can win the award this year, it is the Titans superstar.

4. Myles Garrett, DE, Cleveland Browns

David Richard/Associated Press

The Cleveland Browns have a chance to make the playoffs for the first time since 2002. If that happens while defensive star Myles Garrett keeps wreaking havoc on opposing quarterbacks, then the 2017 No. 1 overall pick could make a compelling MVP argument.

Like Henry, history isn't on the side of Garrett. Only two defensive players have ever won the award—Lawrence Taylor did so in 1986, and Alan Page won in 1971. Still, Garrett has impressive numbers, leading the league with nine sacks and four forced fumbles.

Other defensive players could make their way into this argument. Aaron Donald is tied for the league lead with nine sacks and is a problem for offenses on every snap. T.J. Watt could also make a case as one of the leaders on the Pittsburgh Steelers defense as long as the team keeps picking up wins.

The narrative of helping lead the Browns into the playoffs would help Garrett's case with the Associated Press, but only if he has the numbers to back it up. If he can eclipse the 20-sack mark and keep forcing turnovers while the Browns make the postseason, it might earn him some MVP votes.

3. Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills

Adrian Kraus/Associated Press

It's taken Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen a couple of seasons to get acclimated to the NFL, but the 2018 first-round pick is looking like a possible MVP candidate in his third year.

Allen has led the Bills to a 6-2 record and the top spot in the AFC East. If that lead holds, it will be the first time the Bills win their division since 1995. Allen is a big reason for that success, completing over 67 percent of his passes for 2,172 yards, 16 touchdowns and five interceptions. He's also been making plays with his legs, rushing for 227 yards and four scores.

The biggest improvement for Allen this year has been taking better care of the football. He's posting a career-low interception rate of 1.8 percent while only fumbling the ball four times compared to the 14 he coughed up last season. A jump in production and a dip in turnovers has Allen sitting at 40-1 MVP odds as of Friday.

Considering the competition at quarterback, both Wilson and Mahomes would need to have pretty poor second halves for Allen to have a shot at winning the award. The good news is his dual-threat ability and the team's overall success have him in a good position for a strong finish.

2. Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers

Nick Wass/Associated Press

Pittsburgh Steelers quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has done enough to secure the NFL Comeback Player of the Year Award after suffering a season-ending elbow injury in 2019. If the Steelers keep winning, then Big Ben may also have a shot at winning his first MVP at 38 years old.

Roethlisberger came out in Week 1 without much rust, throwing for three touchdowns and zero interceptions in the Monday Night Football victory. He has only had one game without multiple touchdown passes, throwing for 1,628 yards, 15 touchdowns and four interceptions. His 99.8 passer rating is his best since 2014.

While Big Ben doesn't have the statistics the other quarterbacks have, he is leading the only undefeated team in the league. Keeping that perfect 7-0 record hasn't been easy either, as he has led two fourth-quarter comebacks and game-winning drives. That perfect record has also helped him post 33-1 odds to win MVP.

The path to MVP consideration for Roethlisberger would likely have to involve a perfect 16-0 season given his modest production. There's a chance that could happen, as the Steelers have the eighth-easiest remaining schedule in the league.

Even if the Steelers don't go 16-0, if they're able to finish with the best record in the league, Roethlisberger will earn MVP consideration.

1. Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals

Michael Ainsworth/Associated Press

The NFL is in great hands with all of its talented young quarterbacks, and Murray may be the next star to take it by storm.

After winning the Offensive Rookie of the Year Award in 2019, Murray is looking even better halfway through his sophomore season. He's completing 66.8 percent of his passes for 1,847 yards, 13 touchdowns and seven interceptions, but his impact with his legs is what makes him so dangerous.

Murray is on pace to blow his rushing numbers from last year out of the water. In seven games, he's rushed for 437 yards and seven touchdowns, leading the NFL with 6.7 yards per rushing attempt. He has also run for more first downs than he did in 2019 and is taking fewer sacks. After being sacked 48 times last year, he's only taken nine through seven games thanks to his decision-making and ability to evade pressure.

The Cardinals are averaging 35 points per game over the last three weeks, and Murray is getting more comfortable with new No. 1 receiver DeAndre Hopkins, who leads the NFL with 704 receiving yards.

Of the candidates listed, Murray has the best chance to enter the MVP race by the end of the year with 28-1 odds. Being a quarterback helps considering a QB has won the award 12 of the last 13 seasons, as does Murray's production on the ground.

It will take a big push in Murray's final nine games, but if the Cardinals can secure a playoff spot as he keeps posting big numbers, he'll have a real shot to win MVP.

All MVP odds provided by DraftKings.

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