Tyler Ervin, Dexter Williams' Updated Fantasy Outlook Ahead of Packers vs. 49ers

The Green Bay Packers' backfield could look far different for Thursday night's Week 9 game against the San Francisco 49ers because of injuries and COVID-19 protocols. 

Running back AJ Dillon was placed on the reserve/COVID-19 list Monday and was ruled out for the clash with the Niners. Tom Pelissero of the NFL Network reported fellow rusher Jamaal Williams was designated a "high-risk close contact" of Dillon and will also miss the contest.

Rob Demovsky of ESPN provided a statement from the NFL about Williams and linebacker Kamal Martin:

In addition, ESPN's Adam Schefter noted the Packers are "unsure" about whether No. 1 running back Aaron Jones will be ready to return from a calf injury to face San Francisco.

It could leave Tyler Ervin and Dexter Williams, who's been on the practice squad, as the team's only players at the position against the 49ers, which creates major questions for the Packers and in the fantasy football world.

Tyler Ervin

Ervin has appeared in 40 games across five NFL seasons but he's never operated as a three-down lead back and that's unlikely to change. He'll probably lead the backfield in snaps if Jones is ruled out, but don't expect him to receive 20-plus touches.

In that scenario, he'd likely receive all of the passing-down work to go along with a handful of carries. That would give him appeal in PPR leagues, especially since there would be a chance he could break off a touchdown on a long catch and run, but he'd still fall in the boom-or-bust category.

While he's worth a waiver claim even if it looks like Jones may return since he could still handle some of the third-down snaps, keep expectations within reason. He has more punt (76) and kickoff (47) returns in his career than carries (10) or catches (22).

Ervin, 27, is a short-term target while the Packers' backfield situation settles over the next few weeks but he'll almost certainly be droppable before the fantasy playoffs arrive, so don't invest too heavily in leagues that use an auction bidding format for free agency.

Dexter Williams

Williams may have the higher fantasy floor of the Packers' reserve rushers since he'd probably be the favorite for short-yardage carries, including in the red zone, if Jones is sidelined.

The 23-year-old Notre Dame product is 20 pounds heavier than Ervin (212-192) and most recently served as a lead back with the Irish in 2018. Ervin hasn't filled that role since 2015 at San Jose State.

He won't be too involved in the aerial attack aside from a few checkdowns, so his appeal will be more broad in standard formats, but his touchdown potential within the NFL's ninth-ranked offense is notable.

Like Ervin, it's hard to envision a scenario where Williams has much fantasy value beyond the next two weeks. If you need a one-week bye replacement, he could be your guy if Jones is out. Those seeking long-term depth should look elsewhere on the waiver wire.