MLB Free Agency 2020 Big Board: Ranking the Top 25 Players Available
The upcoming MLB free-agent class saw its most intriguing domino fall when Mookie Betts signed a 12-year, $365 million extension with the Los Angeles Dodgers, but there is still plenty of impact talent set to hit the open market.
Catcher J.T. Realmuto, second baseman DJ LeMahieu and outfielders George Springer and Marcell Ozuna headline the position player side of things, along with productive veterans Nelson Cruz and Michael Brantley, who will likely sign shorter deals.
On the pitching side, Trevor Bauer has emerged as the clear prize of the offseason, while Marcus Stroman, Kevin Gausman, Masahiro Tanaka and Taijuan Walker are among the other quality starting pitcher options. For teams searching for relief help, Liam Hendriks, Trevor Rosenthal and Trevor May headline a deep group of quality bullpen arms.
It's never too soon to start looking ahead to what promises to be another busy offseason, so here's our early big board of the top 25 players from the 2020-21 MLB free-agent class.
Players are ranked based on a combination of earning power and expected future production.
Honorable Mentions
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Attractive Buy-Low Pitchers
Whether by poor performance or injury, these pitchers will likely have to settle for one-year deals this offseason, but they still offer some intriguing upside.
- SP Anthony DeSclafani
- RP Sean Doolittle
- RP Ken Giles
- SP Mike Minor
- SP Jake Odorizzi
- SP James Paxton
- SP Jose Quintana
- SP Robbie Ray
Potential Low-Cost Steals
These hitters won't break the bank, but they're capable of providing value beyond what it will cost to sign them.
- CF Jackie Bradley Jr.
- C Jason Castro
- 1B C.J. Cron
- IF/OF Enrique Hernandez
- OF Jake Marisnick
- OF Joc Pederson
- IF/OF Jurickson Profar
- 2B Jonathan Schoop
- IF/OF Jonathan Villar
Nos. 25-21
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25. SP Drew Smyly (Age: 31)
Signed to a one-year, $4 million contract last offseason after missing all of 2017 and 2018 recovering from Tommy John surgery and then struggling through the bulk of 2019, Drew Smyly turned heads in limited action with the San Francisco Giants. He posted a 3.42 ERA and 1.10 WHIP with a staggering 42 strikeouts in 26.1 innings, good for a 14.4 K/9 rate that ranked eighth among all pitchers who worked at least 20 innings.
24. OF Robbie Grossman (Age: 31)
An on-base machine who proved more than capable in an expanded role this season, Grossman is an under-the-radar free agent capable of making a significant impact. He has a .359 on-base percentage and a 13.2 percent walk rate since the start of the 2016 season, and he posted a career-high 130 OPS+ with 22 extra-base hits and eight steals in 51 games this year.
23. SP Garrett Richards (Age: 32)
The San Diego Padres signed Richards to a two-year, $15.5 million contract prior to 2019 knowing he would spend the bulk of the first year of that deal recovering from Tommy John surgery. The former Los Angeles Angels ace returned healthy this year and pitched well enough to make a case for another multiyear deal with a 4.03 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and 46 strikeouts in 51.1 innings.
22. 3B Justin Turner (Age: 35)
Turner has lost some of his pop and he's no longer an above-average defender at third base, but he still hit .307 with a .400 on-base percentage and a 135 OPS+ in 175 plate appearances. A return to the Dodgers on a short-term deal to bridge the gap to prospect Kody Hoese looks like the most likely outcome.
21. RP Alex Colome (Age: 31)
Colome has converted 85.7 percent of save opportunities over the course of his eight-year career. That's good for the 14th-highest success rate among 36 active pitchers with at least 50 career saves. A middling strikeout rate (6.4 K/9) didn't stop him from converting 12 of 13 save chances with a 0.81 ERA in 21 appearances in 2020, and he will have no problem securing a multiyear deal.
Nos. 20-16
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20. RP Kirby Yates (Age: 33)
Yates was the best reliever in baseball in 2019. He converted 41 of 44 save chances with a 1.19 ERA, 0.89 WHIP and 15.0 K/9 in 60 appearances for the San Diego Padres and finished ninth in NL Cy Young voting. Unfortunately, bone chips in his right elbow limited him to six appearances and an ugly 12.46 ERA in 2020. He may need to settle for a one-year, prove-it deal, but he offers a ton of upside.
19. SS Andrelton Simmons (Age: 31)
A four-time Gold Glove Award winner and one of the best defensive players of his generation, Simmons missed significant time in 2020 with an ankle injury. He has racked up 36.6 WAR and he remains one of the game's better contact hitters with a 9.0 percent strikeout rate for his career. He is not the dynamic offensive player that many teams have at the shortstop position, but he's still capable of being an impact player.
18. SP Taijuan Walker (Age: 28)
After pitching just 14 total innings in 2018 and 2019, Walker settled for a one-year, $2 million contract to return to the Seattle Mariners where he began his pro career as a first-round pick in 2010. He went on to post a 2.70 ERA and 1.16 WHIP with 50 strikeouts in 53.1 innings with Seattle and Toronto, flying up the list of available starting pitchers in the process. His age is also a chip in his favor.
17. IF Tommy La Stella (Age: 31)
From pinch-hit specialist on the Chicago Cubs to All-Star with the Los Angeles Angels to leadoff hitter for the Oakland Athletics in the 2020 postseason, La Stella has boosted his value considerably in recent years. His on-base ability (.370 OBP, 27/12 BB/K in 2020) and defensive versatility make him a welcome fit on almost any roster.
16. RP Trevor May (Age: 31)
Armed with a lethal fastball-slider combination, May ranked 11th among relievers with a 39.6 percent strikeout rate in 2020. He posted a 3.86 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 14.7 K/9 this season, tallying nine holds and two saves in 24 appearances. His swing-and-miss stuff makes him an attractive high-leverage addition to any team's bullpen.
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Nos. 15-11
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15. RP Trevor Rosenthal (Age: 30)
Rosenthal was rocked in his return from Tommy John surgery last year, struggling to a 13.50 ERA and 2.41 WHIP in 15.1 innings. He joined the Kansas City Royals on a minor league deal and quickly emerged as one of the most sought after trade chips at the deadline. In 23 total appearances with Kansas City and San Diego, he converted 11 of 12 save chances with a 1.90 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 14.5 K/9. His 2020 numbers and strong ninth-inning pedigree should earn him top-tier closer money.
14. SP Masahiro Tanaka (Age: 31)
Despite some ups and downs, Tanaka has delivered on the seven-year, $155 million contract he signed prior to the 2014 season, logging a 3.74 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 1,054.1 innings. He had a 3.56 ERA and 120 ERA+ in 10 starts this season, and he has a strong track record of postseason success, despite a shaky outing in Game 2 of the Wild Card Series.
13. DH/OF Michael Brantley (Age: 33)
With a .311 batting average since the start of the 2014 season, Brantley ranks second only to Jose Altuve (.321) among players with at least 3,000 plate appearances during that span. He hit .300/.364/.475 for a 126 OPS+ with 20 extra-base hits this season while moving into the designated hitter role. That said, he also remains an above-average defender in left field.
12. C James McCann (Age: 30)
An All-Star in 2019 when he posted a 108 OPS+ with 18 home runs, McCann was pushed into a part-time role when the Chicago White Sox signed Yasmani Grandal. He hit .289/.360/.536 with seven home runs in 111 plate appearances this year, also grading out as one of the best pitch-framers in baseball while throwing out 33 percent of base-stealers. He'll be an excellent consolation prize for teams that whiff on J.T. Realmuto.
11. RP Liam Hendriks (Age: 31)
A quality reliever for multiple seasons, Hendriks emerged as an elite bullpen arm in 2019 when he tallied 25 saves and eight holds with a 1.80 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 124 strikeouts in 85 innings. He backed that performance up this year with a 1.78 ERA, 0.67 WHIP and 13.1 K/9 while slamming the door on 14 of 15 save opportunities. He's the best reliever on the market this offseason.
10. SP Kevin Gausman
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Kevin Gausman never quite lived up to being the No. 4 overall pick in the 2012 draft during his six seasons with the Baltimore Orioles before he was dealt to the Atlanta Braves at the 2018 trade deadline.
He pitched extremely well immediately following that trade but struggled to a 6.19 ERA in 80 innings for Atlanta last year. He was designated for assignment in August and closed out the year pitching in relief for the Cincinnati Reds.
In search of starting pitching help, the San Francisco Giants rolled the dice on him with a one-year, $9 million contract, and he wound up emerging as the ace of the staff. The 29-year-old went 3-3 with a 3.62 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 79 strikeouts in 59.2 innings. That career-high strikeout rate and a stellar 3.09 FIP provide plenty of reason for optimism looking ahead to 2021 and beyond.
His age and a thin starting pitching market will make him a hot commodity, and the three-year, $28 million contract that Kyle Gibson signed last offseason might be the floor of his earning power.
9. SS Marcus Semien
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Will someone gamble on Marcus Semien returning to his MVP form?
The 30-year-old finished third in AL MVP voting in 2019, hitting .285/.369/.522 for a 139 OPS+ with 43 doubles, 33 home runs, 92 RBI and 123 runs scored in an 8.9-WAR season.
However, his numbers plummeted across the board in 2020.
He hit just .223/.305/.374 for a 91 OPS+, and he ranked near the bottom of the league in exit velocity (12th percentile), hard-hit rate (9th percentile) and barrel rate (27th percentile).
There is no question his stock has dipped significantly, and he will be a prime candidate to either accept a qualifying offer or sign a one-year deal to try to rebuild his value.
8. DH Nelson Cruz
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At 40 years old, Nelson Cruz had arguably the best season of his career in 2020.
The veteran slugger posted a career-high 169 OPS+ while ranking among the AL leaders in batting average (.303, seventh), on-base percentage (.397, third) and home runs (16, fifth).
In the six seasons prior, he hit .285/.361/.555 for a 149 OPS+ while averaging 41 home runs and 105 RBI, suiting up for the Baltimore Orioles, Seattle Mariners and Minnesota Twins.
His age and defensive limitations put a cap on his market, but he has shown no signs of slowing down and the two-year, $26 million contract he just wrapped up in Minnesota will go down as one of the best signings in franchise history.
A similar short-term deal and another 40-homer, 100-RBI season could be forthcoming in 2021.
7. SS Didi Gregorius
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Didi Gregorius emerged as one of the best two-way shortstops in baseball during his time with the New York Yankees, but he was not the same player in 2019 upon returning from Tommy John surgery.
He hit .238 with an ugly .276 on-base percentage in 344 plate appearances ahead of his first foray into free agency, and he opted for a one-year, $14 million contract with the Philadelphia Phillies in hopes of rebuilding his stock.
The 30-year-old did just that, hitting .284/.339/.488 with 10 doubles, 10 home runs and 40 RBI, and he now stands to cash in with a multiyear deal.
"He’s going to have teams lining up to be able to sign him next year, and I can’t wait to see what we do or what another team does for him," teammate Bryce Harper told reporters.
6. SP Marcus Stroman
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The forgotten headliner of the 2020-21 MLB free-agent class, Marcus Stroman opted out of the 2020 season after suffering a torn left calf muscle.
The 29-year-old was an All-Star for the first time in 2019 when he posted a 2.96 ERA in 124.2 innings with the Toronto Blue Jays before he was traded to the New York Mets in exchange for top pitching prospects Simeon Woods Richardson and Anthony Kay.
The undersized right-hander quieted the doubters who didn't think he could handle a starter's workload with a pair of 200-inning seasons, and at his best he's capable of ace-level production at the top of a contender's rotation.
Even after a lost 2020 season, he could still push toward the five-year, $118 million contract that Zack Wheeler signed with the Philadelphia Phillies last offseason.
5. LF Marcell Ozuna
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Marcell Ozuna was an absolute force in the middle of the Atlanta Braves lineup in 2020.
He hit .338/.431/.636 for a career-high 175 OPS+ and led the NL in home runs (18), RBI (56) and total bases (145) after signing a one-year, $18 million contract to replace the departed Josh Donaldson in the middle of the Atlanta lineup.
Those stellar numbers and the fact that he won't be saddled with a qualifying offer this time around should greatly improve his free-agent market, and the four-year, $64 million contract that Nick Castellanos inked last winter might be his floor.
There is some regression risk after he logged an unsustainable .391 BABIP and he doesn't provide any defensive value, but in terms of pure run-production ability, he's the biggest bat on the market.
4. 2B DJ LeMahieu
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Last December, I selected the three best free-agent signings in the history of each MLB franchise. The selections for the New York Yankees were as follows:
- Reggie Jackson (five years, $2.9 million)
- Mike Mussina (six years, $87 million)
- Orlando Hernandez (four years, $6.6 million)
Now that his two-year, $24 million contract is set to wrap up at some point this month, it's fair to start asking where DJ LeMahieu ranks on that list.
The 32-year-old hit .327/.375/.518 with a career-high 26 home runs and 102 RBI last season, carrying an injury-plagued lineup and finishing fourth in AL MVP voting.
He followed that up by becoming the first player in modern MLB history to win a batting title in both leagues, hitting .364/.421/.590 for an AL-best 177 OPS+ in 50 games this season.
Add in his stellar defense at second base and versatility to move all over the infield, and he's an extremely valuable player.
Will the Yankees make re-signing him a top priority?
3. CF George Springer
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One of the few Houston Astros hitters who didn't see a dramatic dip in his offensive production in 2020, George Springer remains a dynamic offensive catalyst, and his ability to play a premium defensive position helps vault him to No. 3 on this list.
The 31-year-old posted a 140 OPS+ with 14 home runs and 32 RBI in 2020, on the heels of slugging a career-high 39 home runs in a 6.4-WAR season in 2019.
Aside from his stellar offensive work, he also tallied 13 DRS in center field over the past two seasons, developing into a standout at the position after starting his career in right field.
Will the Houston Astros prioritize signing him long-term or be more focused in locking up 2021 free-agent-to-be Carlos Correa?
2. C J.T. Realmuto
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J.T. Realmuto is the consensus best catcher in baseball, and he's going to cash in on the open market.
The 29-year-old is reportedly seeking a contract that will make him the highest-paid catcher in MLB history in terms of average annual value, with the current mark set at $23 million by Joe Mauer.
That could also mean becoming just the third catcher to ever sign a contract north of $100 million, joining Mauer and Buster Posey who signed an eight-year, $168 million extension early in his career with the San Francisco Giants.
Realmuto posted a 123 OPS+ with 11 home runs and 32 RBI in 2020, and he was a Gold Glove winner for the first time in 2019, so he's more than just an offensive contributor.
The Philadelphia Phillies paid a steep price to acquire him prior to the 2019 season, sending highly regarded pitching prospect Sixto Sanchez to the Miami Marlins in that trade. With so much invested in the current core, locking up Realmuto will no doubt be a priority this winter, but affording him will be tricky.
1. RHP Trevor Bauer
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Buckle up, baseball fans.
Trevor Bauer is likely going to hit the free-agent market as the reigning NL Cy Young winner after leading the NL in ERA (1.73) and WHIP (0.80) while tallying 100 strikeouts in 73 innings.
The 29-year-old put an impressive cherry on top of that stellar season when he allowed just two hits while striking out 12 in 7.2 scoreless innings in his lone postseason start.
The outspoken right-hander has indicated multiple times in the past that he will seek one-year contracts for the remainder of his career in an effort to maximize his annual earning power and to ensure that he's playing for a contender.
A one-year, $40 million contract might not be out of the question for a team that thinks he's the missing piece in securing a World Series title.
At the same time, there will no doubt be multiple nine-figure deals dangled in front of him, and it will be interesting to see if he sticks to his guns when that money hits the table.
Regardless, his free agency is going to be one of the most compelling offseason storylines in years.
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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