B/R's Week 4 2020 Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer

Injuries, underwhelming players and roster shake-ups have left many fantasy football managers looking to add fresh talent. Players like running back Saquon Barkley and wide receiver Courtland Sutton are done for the year, while quarterbacks Carson Wentz and Baker Mayfield have been too underwhelming to remain fantasy-relevant.

The waiver wire should be the first avenue of approach for talent-starved fantasy managers. However, oftentimes the players available aren't going to provide enough of a jolt. This is where the trade market comes in.

Each week, Bleacher Report will analyze some of our readers' toughest trade proposals. Some of the analysis will be roster-specific, but we'll try to provide information that is useful to all fantasy fans.

As a reminder, the Week 4 game between the Pittsburgh Steelers and Tennessee Titans has been postponed until Oct. 25 because of COVID-19.           

Is It Time to Buy Low on Christian McCaffrey?

From the Bleacher Report app

Let's kick things off with a question that would have seemed silly just a couple of weeks ago. Was trading Nick Chubb and Amari Cooper for Christian McCaffrey and Kyler Murray a good deal?

Really, the query should be whether buying low on an injured McCaffrey was a good idea. Chubb and Cooper are both high-end players, as is Murray. McCaffrey, though, has the potential to be the best back in fantasy, as he proved last year.

The problem is McCaffrey is on injured reserve with a high ankle sprain. He's going to be out for at least two more weeks under IR rules for the 2020 campaign, but that is a best-case scenario. According to NFL Media's Ian Rapoport, McCaffrey will likely be out four-to-six weeks.

That means he'd be back in Week 7 at the earliest. By that point, your fantasy season might be in the tank. If the Carolina Panthers' season is also in the tank, they won't be inclined to rush McCaffrey back onto the field.

Buying low on the 24-year-old running back is a major risk, and trading Chubb—a top-10 fantasy RB so far—for him is not an example of buying low.             

How Valuable Is David Montgomery?

From the Bleacher Report app

The centerpieces of this proposed trade are Jacksonville Jaguars running back James Robinson and Chicago Bears running back David Montgomery.

Tarik Cohen is out in the Windy City with a torn ACL, so Montgomery does have slightly higher upside.

He has recorded 255 yards from scrimmage and a touchdown in three starts, and he'll have added value in points-per-reception (PPR) leagues. Cohen caught six of nine targets for 41 yards over the first three weeks.

And with Nick Foles under center instead of Mitchell Trubisky, Chicago's offense might get into a better rhythm.

Ultimately, Robinson remains more valuable than Montgomery, with the sixth-most fantasy points per game at the position in PPR leagues, while tight ends Dalton Schultz and Jonnu Smith won't put up points on a consistent basis.

Wide receiver Allen Lazard is out indefinitely with a core muscle injury, according to ESPN's Rob Demovsky, which is a major deal-breaker.           

What Is the Outlook for Chris Godwin?

From the Bleacher Report app

As previously mentioned, Montgomery should see a slight bump in his fantasy value. Expect him to be a mid-level RB2. Given your depth at running back—and the handcuffs—this is a fair deal.

The question mark is the outlook for Tampa Bay Buccaneers wideout Chris Godwin. Jarvis Landry is a solid PPR option in most weeks, while Godwin has elite WR1 upside under ideal conditions. He's not likely to see those conditions in the foreseeable future, though.

Godwin is dealing with a hamstring injury and isn't expected to play in Week 4.

The other issue is that the Bucs have been spreading the ball around more with Tom Brady under center. Through three weeks, six different players have seen double-digit targets.

Godwin can still be quality WR1 once healthy, and getting him and Landry for Montgomery is a solid deal. Just know that Godwin may not be starter-worthy in the immediate future and doesn't have the upside he did a year ago.         

What Value Does Tom Brady Have?

From the Bleacher Report app

The answer here is no, but it is close to being a fairly even deal. Let's dive into this one.

Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes has the potential to be the best QB in fantasy. Alvin Kamara can do the same at running back. What makes this potential deal unbalanced, though, is the inclusion of Brady.

At this point in his career, Brady is a serviceable fantasy starter, but he doesn't have the upside of Mahomes. 

James Conner, meanwhile, is a solid RB2 in PPR formats. He's still a high-volume option despite the fact that he's splitting time with fellow Pittsburgh Steelers running back Benny Snell Jr. Conner has seen 40 carries and 11 targets through three games, resulting in eight receptions, 287 yards from scrimmage and two touchdowns.

Ultimately, Mahomes is a weekly must-start, while Brady is more valuable as a streaming option. Kamara is a must-start, while Conner is a quality RB2. The combination of Mahomes and Conner is more valuable.

However, the biggest takeaway might be that while Brady is fantasy-viable, he isn't the reliable player he was in years past.      

What Is the Upside for Devonta Freeman?

From the Bleacher Report app

As we've already touched on, Tampa receivers don't have the value they did when Jameis Winston was under center. Mike Evans has marginally more upside than Washington Football Team wideout Terry McLaurin—at least, with Godwin out.                         

Evans has caught 10 passes for 108 yards and four touchdowns, while McLaurin has 16 catches for 269 yards and one score.

What makes this deal a no-go is the swap of New York Giants running back Devonta Freeman for the Las Vegas Raiders' Josh Jacobs.

Jacobs, who has 10 receptions, 327 yards from scrimmage and three touchdowns, is an elite fantasy back. Freeman, who was signed following Saquon Barkley's season-ending injury, is not.

Even if Freeman gets the bulk of New York's backfield touches, the Giants have averaged just 3.2 yards per carry (dead last in the NFL). No Giants running back has averaged more than 2.0 yards per carry behind a struggling offensive line.           

Continue Buying Low on DK Metcalf

From the Bleacher Report app

I've talked about the upside of Seattle Seahawks wideout DK Metcalf in the past, and it's worth touching on it again. While the second-year Mississippi product has not yet passed Tyler Lockett as Seattle's clear-cut No. 1 receiver, he's getting there.

Lockett has caught 24 passes for 259 yards and four touchdowns. Metcalf has caught 12 for 297 yards and three scores. While Lockett is the superior PPR option, Metcalf is a home run hitter who will have elite upside as long as the Seahawks are letting Russell Wilson cook.

Wilson, by the way, has completed 76.7 percent of his passes for 925 yards, 14 touchdowns and just one interception this season.

Metcalf has substantially more upside than Cooper Kupp, while Derrick Henry and Josh Jacobs should have similar value moving forward. Henry is likely to be the higher-volume runner, but Jacobs has a bit more PPR value.

This trade buys low on Metcalf, which managers should do now while they have the chance.       

What's the Long-Term Outlook for Christian McCaffrey and Saquon Barkley?

From the Bleacher Report app

Let's wrap up the list proper with a fantastic keeper-league question. The relevant part of this proposed trade is the swap of Saquon Barkley and Christian McCaffrey.

As previously mentioned, the outlook for McCaffrey isn't great this year. However, there's at least a chance that he'll return and be fantasy-relevant over the second half of the season. That isn't going to be the case for Barkley, who is out with a torn ACL.

Looking ahead, I believe that McCaffrey has the higher upside. Both backs can be special, but Barkley is stuck on one of the worst teams in the NFL and will be coming back from a significant injury in 2021.

McCaffrey isn't on a tremendous team, but he should be 100 percent healthy next season and has seen better blocking recently. While Barkley averaged a mere 1.8 yards per carry before his injury, McCaffrey averaged a more respectable 3.8.

While Newton has a fair bit of value for the 2020 season, his keeper outlook is cloudy at best. I'd prefer to have McCaffrey over Newton and Barkley for the next few years.       

Quick Hits

Elaine Thompson/Associated Press

Seahawks RB Chris Carson

Let's cap off this week's edition with a few quick hits.

tobinjacob asks: Should I trade DJ Moore and Hollywood Brown for Chris Carson and Brandon Aiyuk?

This is a deal I would not make, largely because Chris Carson is dealing with a knee sprain. Even if he does play, he may not be at 100 percent in the coming weeks.

If not for Carson's injury, I would give this trade strong consideration, though. I like Aiyuk's upside and role in the San Francisco 49ers offense, and I'm down on Brown. He's a boom-or-bust receiver who doesn't seem to have consistent chemistry with Lamar Jackson this season.

I wouldn't deal DJ Moore for a banged-up Carson, though, especially if this is PPR. While Robby Anderson has been the more productive Panthers receiver thus far, he has been out-targeted by Moore 26-23.

fumaruno asks: Austin Ekeler for Frank Gore and David Montgomery?

Ekeler could be a top-five fantasy running back. He already has 378 yards from scrimmage, 16 receptions and a touchdown.

I wouldn't give up Ekeler for Montgomery, and Gore could be nearly irrelevant in a matter of weeks. While he's a solid flex play now, he's going to continue losing touches to rookie La'Mical Perine. Le'Veon Bell is likely to reenter the picture after recovering from his hamstring injury too.

Two-for-one trades can be valuable when you need depth at a specific position, but the value here hinges entirely on Montgomery's upside, which remains a bit of a mystery.

austinko asks: Kyler [Murray] and [Tyler] Boyd for [Joe] Mixon?

There's no way I could recommend giving up a starting-caliber quarterback in Kyler Murray and a high-end flex option in Tyler Boyd for Joe Mixon. However, I did want to address this one because some managers may be anticipating another late-season breakout for the Cincinnati Bengals running back.

Don't.

Mixon is averaging just 3.2 yards per carry behind a bad Bengals offensive line. While he does have seven receptions in three games, he isn't a high-end PPR option. Furthermore, the Bengals have made it clear that they're willing to go pass-heavy with rookie quarterback Joe Burrow. He's attempted 141 passes in just three weeks (the team is third in total passing attempts).

Unless Burrow suffers an injury, Mixon isn't going to be a focal point of the offense. He's a high-end flex play or RB2 at best.

*Advanced statistics from Pro Football Reference.