Week 4 NFL Picks: Prop Bets Advice, Vegas Odds, Spreads and Predictions

Week 3 of the 2020 NFL season went out with a bang. The defending champion Kansas City Chiefs thrashed the Baltimore Ravens 34-20 and asserted their dominance as the best team in the AFC, if not the entire league.

Week 4 is set to kick off Thursday night with a matchup a little less juicy than the Chiefs-Ravens tilt. The Denver Broncos are set to visit the New York Jets in a battle between winless squads.

The Broncos are banged up, without No. 1 receiver Courtland Sutton and on to No. 3 quarterback Brett Rypien. The Jets have simply struggled and appear to be going nowhere with Adam Gase as their head coach. Of course, a lackluster matchup on paper doesn't mean that this game cannot still be fun.

It will be interesting to see how Rypien performs in his first NFL start. It will be equally intriguing to see whether Sam Darnold can do more than show glimpses of being a franchise quarterback.

Naturally, there are a few ways to make the game even more interesting, and we'll examine some of the top prop bets for Thursday night's game here. First, though, let's run down the latest lines, props and over/unders from DraftKings Sportsbook.

NFL Week 4 Lines, Over/Unders and Predictions

Denver Broncos (+1, 41) at New York Jets: 22-19 NY Denver

Seattle Seahawks (-6.5, 53) at Miami Dolphins: 33-26 Seattle

Cleveland Browns (+4.5, 56) at Dallas Cowboys: 35-28 Dallas

Los Angeles Chargers (+7, 43) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 28-20 Tampa Bay

Indianapolis Colts (-2.5, 43) at Chicago Bears: 27-22 Indianapolis

Arizona Cardinals (-3.5, 51.5) at Carolina Panthers: 36-30 Arizona

Minnesota Vikings (+4.5, 54.5) at Houston Texans: 30-28 Houston

Jacksonville Jaguars (+3, 49) at Cincinnati Bengals: 24-23 Jacksonville

Baltimore Ravens (-13, 45.5) at Washington Football Team: 33-17 Baltimore

New Orleans Saints (-4, 55) at Detroit Lions: 26-20 New Orleans

New York Giants (+13, 48) at Los Angeles Rams: 44-24 Los Angeles

Buffalo Bills (-3, 52.5) at Las Vegas Raiders: 23-20 Buffalo

New England Patriots (+7, 53) at Kansas City Chiefs: 27-23 Kansas City

Philadelphia Eagles (+7, 46) at San Francisco 49ers: 32-22 San Francisco

Atlanta Falcons (+7.5, 56.5) at Green Bay Packers: 38-31 Green Bay

Broncos and Jets UNDER 20.5 First-Half Points

On paper, at least, Thursday's game figures to be a low-scoring affair. This is likely to be most prevalent in the first half, as the Broncos try to establish a rhythm with Rypien—assuming they stick with him as a true starter.

Head coach Vic Fangio has hinted that Denver could use both Rypien and Jeff Driskel under center against New York.

"We'll just see how the game unfolds," he said, per ESPN's Jeff Legwold. "We may change it up a few times."

While Denver could struggle to find offensive chemistry early, the Jets are unlikely to have much chemistry at all. No team has scored fewer points through the first three weeks of the season, and New York's high total on the season is just 17 points.

With both teams coming off a short week, there could be a lot of sloppy football early before things start to settle in the second half.

La'Mical Perine OVER 26.5 Rushing Yards

Darron Cummings/Associated Press

The Jets haven't seen a ton of rookie fourth-round pick La'Mical Perine thus far, as the Florida product suffered an ankle injury during training camp.

The 22-year-old got just three carries in Week 2 and seven carries in Week 3, as New York appears content to slowly phase him into the offense.

With Perine another week removed from the injury, he should see his workload share increase once again. He should get double-digit touches this week while sharing a more even load with veteran Frank Gore—perhaps more, if the Jets want to get a good look at the rookie before activating Le'Veon Bell from injured reserve.

Between Gore and Perine, the rookie has been the more explosive runner, albeit in limited action. He's averaged 4.1 yards per carry to Gore's 3.4.

If Perine's average can hold against Denver's seventh-ranked run defense, he should have a good chance of surpassing what is a relatively low over/under of just 26.5 yards.

Brett Rypien UNDER 219.5 Passing Yards

Let's turn back to Denver's quarterback situation for this passing prop. The line for Rypien is set at 219.5 yards, which is low for the 2020 NFL season but probably higher than what the Boise State product will deliver.

The 24-year-old replaced Driskel during last week's loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, and he likely won the starting opportunity because of his efficiency. While he did toss an interception, he also completed eight of his nine pass attempts.

Here's the thing, though. Rypien didn't exactly push the ball down the field when he was on it. He averaged a mere 5.9 yards per 6.625 yards per completion, meaning he'd have to complete 33 passes at that rate to hit 220 yards.

Even if Rypien were to complete 70 percent of his passes, he'd have to attempt 47 of them to reach 33 completions. Denver is highly unlikely to throw the ball 47 times with an unproven quarterback on a short week. Plus, as previously mentioned, Rypien might not even see all of those attempts.

Expect the Broncos to more heavily rely on Melvin Gordon and the running game and for Rypien to miss the 220-yard mark.