NBA Players Dangerously Close to Bust Status
A handful of recent top-20 NBA draft picks may be running out of time.
Some slow starters, like Mohamed Bamba and Markelle Fultz, are still young with room left to improve, so they'll have suitors lined up once they're available.
But the following five prospects could find themselves in trouble after the 2020-21 season. They've struggled to establish any one valuable skill, and a lack of evident improvement has created skepticism about their ability to break out.
Kevin Knox II, New York Knicks
1 of 5
The revamped New York Knicks front office will need to take a hard look at Kevin Knox II during camp. Another season like last year will ruin his trade value, and if president Leon Rose is skeptical about his development, he may be better off shopping Knox now before teams stop buying his potential after three seasons of no improvement.
While most NBA sophomores' roles and production increase, Knox received fewer minutes and averaged 6.4 points for a 21-45 team. It's worth noting that he didn't have a long leash; David Fizdale was fighting for wins to keep his job (he didn't), and interim coach Mike Miller was also trying to prove himself.
But it's telling that neither coach had interest in involving Knox.
He isn't advanced enough with the ball to be used as a creator. Even with an advantageous mix of 6'7" size and athleticism for slashing, Knox has shown poor instincts and touch converting drives.
There was more hope that his value would show as an off-ball scorer, but Knox generated just 0.85 points per possession out of spot-ups (28th percentile) and 0.83 PPP off screens (29th percentile), struggling to consistently make catch-and-shoot jumpers, one-dribble pull-ups and line-drive takes to the basket.
For a non-playmaker, his inability to create or consistently make shots has made him unplayable at times, even if he did make strides on defense.
Though Knox just turned 21 in August, teams will start to forget about his age and worry more about his lack of progress if he's unable to make a third-year jump.
Maybe a new coaching staff will help Knox flip the switch. Perhaps he needs a change of scenery to a team that can offer a more defined role and supporting talent.
Or maybe former president Steve Mills and general manager Scott Merry totally misevaluated their 2018 lottery pick. There is no denying Knox's talent and skill set—the question is whether he will figure out how to apply and optimize them.
Dennis Smith Jr., New York Knicks
2 of 5
Every offseason, it seems like hope is pumped into a Dennis Smith Jr. breakout projection. And every year, he's wound up looking worse than the one before.
Some have likely already written him off as a bust after he averaged 5.5 points and 2.9 assists in 34 games this year. It seems fair to conclude he won't come close to being the player who so many hyped out of high school and North Carolina State. But Smith is dangerously close to NBA rock-bottom and potentially needing to look for work overseas.
We'll give him one more season with good health and a new coaching staff, including Tom Thibodeau, who experienced years of success with scoring point guard Derrick Rose.
Smith's identity isn't changing at this point—he's a scoring ball-handler who'll always look more comfortable attacking/hunting for himself over running the offense. He could still carve out a valued role playing to those strengths, even if it's off the bench.
But Smith hasn't flashed the same explosiveness from his teenage years. He shot an atrocious 36.8 percent on drives this year (6th percentile), and his jump shot has completely broken down. A hitch at the top of his release appeared. He lost range on his shot. Smith's three-pointers made per game have dropped every season since he entered the league, and he finished this year at 50.9 percent from the free-throw line.
The NBA's point guard position is too competitive for Smith to stick around as a poor shooter who doesn't offer significant value with playmaking.
Justin Jackson, Dallas Mavericks
3 of 5
After leading North Carolina to a national championship, setting a Tar Heels single-season record for three-pointers and going No. 15 in the 2017 draft, Justin Jackson has fallen off the map.
The 25-year-old is already onto his second team in Dallas, where it's tough to imagine he'll carve out a regular role moving forward.
Jackson shot 29.4 percent from three this season with the Mavericks, a scary number for a non-creator or playmaker. Shooting was supposed to be his NBA moneymaker, but it looks like his first two college seasons (30.4 percent, 29.2 percent 3PT) were more indicative of his accuracy.
The 6'7" Jackson has averaged fewer than 2.0 assists, 3.0 rebounds and 1.0 steals in each of his first three seasons. Unless he's able to reestablish himself as a shooting specialist and floor spacer, teams won't find much use for Jackson, who seems headed for a one-year, prove-it contract once his rookie deal expires.
TJ Leaf, Indiana Pacers
4 of 5
Drafted at No. 18 in 2017—before John Collins, Jarrett Allen, OG Anunoby and Kyle Kuzma—TJ Leaf has been a non-factor since entering the league.
He's averaged fewer than 10 minutes per game every year. It's fair to say his lack of playing time has plenty to do with Myles Turner, Domantas Sabonis and former coach Nate McMillan. But three seasons is a long enough time to build a case for backup minutes.
He's also coming off his worst year as a Pacer, shooting 41.9 percent from the floor.
The appeal to Leaf out of college was tied to the idea of his stretch-4 playmaking potential for today's NBA. But perceived versatility disguised a player who didn't have a bankable, translatable skill. His shot hasn't fallen (career 31 three-pointers in 139 games), and he isn't sharp enough off the dribble to be used as a creator.
Offense was supposed to be Leaf's strength, yet the Pacers scored 8.3 fewer points per 100 possessions this season when he was on the floor.
Assuming he won't be a Pacer long-term, he'll get another chance for a team that thinks it's worth seeing if he can break out with a bigger opportunity. But after his rookie contract, a lost season elsewhere could mean an early end of the road.
Josh Jackson, Memphis Grizzlies
5 of 5
Josh Jackson received a fresh start this year with the Memphis Grizzlies after going fourth in the 2017 draft and playing two disappointing seasons in Phoenix. He did play well with the Memphis Hustle in the G League before putting together a promising stretch for the Grizzlies in February and March.
But the bar has been lowered to just above rock bottom.
He still wasn't used by coach Taylor Jenkins in the bubble. Though he's a capable scorer when locked in, Jackson's shooting and decision-making have been difficult to trust since he entered the league. As a third-year pro in Memphis, he finished with a 31.9 percent three-point mark and 13.4 turnover percentage to 13.1 assist percentage, numbers that don't align with useful NBA wings.
Unable to consistently make the right reads off the dribble and a limited threat to space the floor, Jackson has to establish a signature strength for coaches to value outside of transition offense.
Athleticism and spurts of production fueled by scoring versatility should keep hope alive for the short term. But he's at the point where he's just trying to convince a coach he's worthy of bench minutes.
