NFL Week 1 Overreaction: Are the Cam Newton Patriots for Real?

For the past six months or so, many of us have simply craved some normalcy.

The first Sunday NFL experience of the 2020 season certainly delivered that with the voices of Joe Buck, Jim Nantz and Al Michaels, a standard Philip Rivers fourth-quarter meltdown, appearances from the same old Detroit Lions and samer, older Cleveland Browns and dozens of other Sunday football staples.

Of course, there were also surprises—both good and bad—and performances that raised eyebrows just a little higher and more forcefully than expected. And because we're working with a one-game sample for 28 teams this morning, it's tempting to overreact.

Let's take stock of the most glaring potential overreactions from Sunday and speculate on how those burning-hot takes might hold up when tested by Father Time.

Can Cam Newton Sustain This?

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The hot take: Cam Newton and the New England Patriots can excel using Cam Newton's legs

It wasn't long ago there was speculation the New England Patriots were going in the tank this year. They crashed with a 4-4 second half in 2019 before burning in the first round of playoffs, and then key players Tom Brady, Jamie Collins Sr., Kyle Van Noy, Dont'a Hightower (2020 opt-out) and Marcus Cannon (2020 opt-out) fleed the wreckage in the offseason.

But New England signaled it wasn't giving up when it signed former MVP Cam Newton to replace Brady, and the 31-year-old three-time Pro Bowler looked a lot like his old self as the Pats beat the nuisance Miami Dolphins with relative ease to kick off the season Sunday.

Newton ran nearly as often as he threw (15 carries versus 19 pass attempts) and scored a pair of rushing touchdowns as the Patriots made an obvious effort to take advantage of his unique combination of size, strength and speed in a 21-11 victory.

But is that a sustainable model? The Dolphins had no idea what to expect from Newton, who started just two games last season and wasn't himself as a result of a balky shoulder for much of the 2018 campaign. Now, opposing teams will be prepared for that approach, and the challenges will only grow with the Seattle Seahawks, Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers on the upcoming schedule.

A more significant concern could be that Newton has already been victimized by wear and tear as a result of the constant contact that made him so effective before shoulder and foot injuries derailed his last two seasons in Carolina.

Never count out Bill Belichick, but the Pats' 2020 climb remains steep.

The verdict: Newton's body is unlikely to hold up, and future opponents are likely to wise up

Is Aaron Rodgers Back?

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The hot take: A healthy, inspired Aaron Rodgers has revived his career for the Green Bay Packers

Have you heard? The Packers used a first-round draft pick on a quarterback this offseason. That had everyone questioning how much longer Rodgers would remain Green Bay's franchise signal-caller and wondering if the 36-year-old would be more inspired than ever to regain his elite status in 2020.

All he did in an offensively balling Week 1 victory over the division rival Minnesota Vikings was put up 364 yards and four touchdowns with zero interceptions in his sixth-highest-rated performance since the start of 2017.

It was a complete throwback performance from Rodgers and the Green Bay offense, which put up 43 points and controlled the ball for more than 41 minutes. But does it mean Rodgers is back?

The two-time MVP hasn't been a first- or second-team All-Pro since 2014, he hasn't surpassed the league average in yards per attempt since 2016, and his 62.6 completion rate since the start of 2017 ranks 25th among 31 qualified passers during that span. He also registered the worst bad-throw rate in football last year.

And on Sunday, he faced a Vikes defense in transition. The cornerbacks corps was overhauled in the offseason, which wasn't ideal considering the limited nature of spring and summer training, and it didn't help that star pass-rusher Danielle Hunter was hurt, veteran Everson Griffen is gone and newbie Yannick Ngakoue didn't look fully acclimated against Green Bay.

Before drawing any conclusions about a Rodgers renaissance, we'll need to see him and that offense against better competition.

The verdict: The gutted Vikings defense wasn't a strong enough test

Is Tom Brady Toast?

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The hot take: As he embarks on a late-career run with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tom Brady has nothing left

Brady is looking to prove that with more support in Tampa, he can become the first quarterback in NFL history to experience success at or beyond the age of 43. That after he threw a mere 14 touchdown passes in his last 11 games as a 42-year-old, averaging just 6.2 yards per attempt for an 83.0 passer rating during that stretch.

One performance into his new endeavor, the jury remains out. Brady made some classic throws and performed well on script in a loss to the New Orleans Saints, but the Tampa Bay offense often lacked chemistry following a strange initial offseason together. He threw two touchdown passes but also tossed multiple interceptions in a game for the first time in 20 months.

On deep passing attempts, Brady was just 2-of-6 with an interception.

It was a tough spot on the road against one of the league's deepest teams, top wideout Mike Evans wasn't healthy and some rust was expected. But if Brady bombs again against the novice Carolina Panthers defense in Tampa Bay's home opener next week, those still clinging to the idea he's elite will want to lower their expectations for his time in Florida.

The verdict: He's in the toaster

Super Bowl Hangover for the 49ers?

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The hot take: The San Francisco 49ers are destined for a post-Super Bowl letdown

The Super Bowl hangover is often real, especially for losers. Altogether, 25 of the last 26 Super Bowl losers failed to make it back to the Super Bowl the following season, and each of the last five NFC teams to lose the Super Bowl failed to win their division the next year. 

Following an opening-day home loss to the division-rival Arizona Cardinals, the 49ers might be in search of Tylenol and/or Gravol. A banged-up team finds itself alone in dead-last in the NFC West after a Super Bowl-esque fourth-quarter letdown and an uneven performance from quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo. 

Now, this wasn't an easy spot considering the hype surrounding Arizona and the weirdness associated with a fan-less home opener. The 49ers might get healthier and are far too talented to fall off a cliff this season, but they're adjusting to a lot of changes with little preparation. And what's really working against them is the fact the NFC is so stacked to begin with.

It's incredibly difficult to get back to the Super Bowl when all's right, but all's not right at the moment and they're likely to enter a royal rumble against the Cardinals, Seattle Seahawks, Los Angeles Rams, Saints, Packers, Minnesota Vikings, Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles with at least one hand tied behind their back. 

Good luck with that. 

The verdict: San Francisco is extremely unlikely to get back to the Super Bowl this year

Are the Jaguars Somehow Not Bad?

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The hot take: The Jacksonville Jaguars aren't tanking, and Gardner Minshew II is the next Tom Brady

Having parted with key players Leonard Fournette, Ronnie Harrison, Yannick Ngakoue, A.J. Bouye, Calais Campbell, Nick Foles, Marcell Dareus and Jalen Ramsey in the last calendar year, the Jaguars were slotted into the No. 32 spot in preseason power rankings throughout the galaxy.

It seemed the tank was officially on, but Doug Marrone's players didn't get the memo, and Jacksonville upset the Indianapolis Colts to take early possession of first place in the AFC South. In the process, Minshew indicated that his surprisingly sensational rookie season wasn't an anomaly by completing 19 of his 20 passes with three touchdown strikes to zero picks.

But let's not get ahead of ourselves.

Only one of Minshew's completions came on a pass that traveled 15 or more yards, and Colts quarterback Philip Rivers threw two interceptions in his own territory that led to 10 Jacksonville points. Indy scored on just two of five red-zone possessions and converted just four of 12 third-down attempts in a sloppy and discouraging performance.

Minshew might keep the Jags in more games than you'd expect based on the dearth of talent on the roster, and rookie first-round pick CJ Henderson's career got off to a promising start, as well. But the Jags faced practically no pressure against a stunningly lifeless and flawed opponent. They won't be so lucky most Sundays.

The verdict: This was an aberration and an indictment of the Colts

Is the Washington Football Team a Contender?

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The hot take: Despite—or even as a result of—a tumultuous offseason, the new-look, no-name Washington Football Team is on a mission

Nobody would have faulted you for writing off the Washington Football Team before they were the Washington Football Team. It's been a scandalous and trying offseason that didn't inspire much confidence in a team that won just three games last season.

Those down on Washington were shortly validated by the squad's 17-0 first-half deficit Sunday against the Philadelphia Eagles. At halftime, with his team trailing by double digits, Washington head coach Ron Rivera, who has squamous cell cancer, was hooked to an IV. Sophomore quarterback Dwayne Haskins Jr. delivered a speech to his teammates that Rivera described as "raucous," and the Football Team dominated the rest of the game.

Twenty-seven unanswered points and a double-digit-margin of victory now have Washington alone in first place in the NFC East. And while winning said division won't be easy, it's entirely possible. There's something about this team: It's really playing up the fact it's nameless and driven, the inspirational Rivera is a two-time Coach of the Year who won't let his guys quit, and it certainly helps that it might have the most talented defensive front in football.

There are still questions about Haskins on the field, but he rebounded from a weak first half and showed late last season that he can put up mega-numbers in this league. If it all comes together in the first season with expanded playoffs, don't count out D.C.'s professional football team.

The verdict: Washington can make the playoffs in the NFC

Are the Seahawks Ready to Return to the Super Bowl?

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The hot take: The Seattle Seahawks are a prime Super Bowl contender

The Legion of Boom-era Seahawks never fully disappeared, but they were often in a room adjacent to the one containing top-tier Super Bowl contenders.

Those who watched them easily dispose of the Atlanta Falcons on the road to start the season might be tempted to move Seattle back into that top echelon, and it would be hard to argue otherwise.

Against a veteran team that went 6-2 down the stretch in 2019, Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson completed all but four of his 35 pass attempts while posting four touchdown passes to zero interceptions for a 143.1 passer rating in a 13-point victory.

Tyler Lockett and DK Metcalf indeed look like one of the most dynamic receiver duos in the league, top back Chris Carson looks fully healed from his fractured hip, and new star safety Jamal Adams recorded 12 tackles, a sack and two quarterback hits.

To boot, there was pressure all offseason for the Seahawks to "let Russ cook" and live up to his massive salary by utilizing the best deep ball in the league more often, and it seems head coach Pete Carroll and offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer got the message. Seattle passed nearly twice as much as it ran, and Wilson was 4-of-7 on deep throws as Seattle put up its second-highest point total since 2018.

The Seahawks won't be on par with the Kansas City Chiefs or Baltimore Ravens until they're stronger in the trenches, but they belong with the brass of the NFC.

The verdict: Seattle is for real

Is It Already Tua Time?

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The hot take: Ryan Fitzpatrick's poor Week 1 performance means the Miami Dolphins should prepare to start Tua Tagovailoa

Those who figure that one bad showing from Fitzpatrick (20-of-30 for 191 yards, zero touchdowns and three interceptions) should cause the Dolphins to make the move to Tagovailoa are missing the point.

Fitzpatrick isn't starting because he's more talented than Tua or even because he gives the Dolphins a better chance to win. We all knew this rebuild was at least a two-year process, and it should be understand that Miami's approach to 2020 isn't solely about winning in 2020.

Critical message: The Dolphins are not going to win Super Bowl LV.

Fitzpatrick is the starter right now because he's more prepared to serve in that role and because Tua is nine months removed from suffering a career-threatening hip injury. Throwing him to the wolves with no preseason and a minimalized training camp under his belt, behind a neophytic offensive line, would be reckless.

The timing related to the start of Tagovailoa's career should in no way be tied to how Fitzpatrick performs. In reality, that approach would be dangerously shortsighted.

The verdict: An emphatic "No!"

Has Josh Allen Arrived?

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The hot take: Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen is an MVP candidate

Allen was always going to require time to become a star quarterback, and there remains a possibility it'll never happen. But those who believe in the cannon-armed third-year Wyoming product had to be tickled pink by his 33-of-46, 312-yard, two-touchdown, interception-free performance in Sunday's easy season-opening victory over the New York Jets. 

Allen added 57 rushing yards and another touchdown on the ground in one of the best performances of his career. 

It's extremely encouraging, but highs and lows are just part of the process with a young talent like this. Before deeming Allen to be the breakout star of 2020, we have to ensure this isn't just a peak towering over another valley. After all, the Jets are a dumpster fire and without both Jamal Adams (traded to the Seattle Seahawks) and C.J. Mosley (a COVID-19 opt-out on defense). 

Plus, Allen fumbled twice in the first half, so it's not as though this performance was clean. It might have been his best yet, but now he has to prove it won't be just another section of the roller coaster—like his monster showing last season in Miami or the one the year before that against the Dolphins at home. 

Let's at least see him against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 3—and maybe even the Tennessee Titans in Week 5.

The verdict: Ask me in a month

Brad Gagnon has covered the NFL for Bleacher Report since 2012. Follow him on Twitter: @Brad_Gagnon.