Where Do Luis Robert, Kyle Lewis Rank Among Best Rookie OFs in MLB History?

The unique nature of a 60-game MLB season makes it difficult to compare the statistics of 2020 with those from 162-game seasons.

Luckily, there's this tricky thing called math.

Tasked with placing standouts Luis Robert and Kyle Lewis among the best rookie outfielders in MLB history, we extrapolated their statistics over a full 162-game schedule.

What does that mean?

Basically, we took the statistics that each player has posted through the 43 games the Chicago White Sox and Seattle Mariners have played through Thursday and multiplied them to get a season's worth of production.

• Formula: 162-game season/43 games played=3.77 statistical multiplier

Make sense? If not, it will once you see the math in action.

Of course, it's never as easy as simply extrapolating statistics. Pitchers make adjustments, hitters fall into slumps, injuries play a role—any number of things can happen to throw a player off their pace.

This was a fun attempt to contextualize two of the best rookie outfielders in years with some of the best in history.

Other Notable Rookie Outfielders

Mark Lennihan/Associated Press

These rookies didn't crack the top 10 but were still worthy of mention:

• Ronald Acuna Jr., Atlanta Braves, 2018
• Tommie Agee, Chicago White Sox, 1966
• Jason Bay, Pittsburgh Pirates, 2004
• Carlos Beltran, Kansas City Royals, 1999
• Wally Berger, Boston Braves, 1930
• Curt Blefary, Baltimore Orioles, 1965
• Tom Brunansky, Minnesota Twins, 1982
• Jose Canseco, Oakland Athletics, 1986
• Marty Cordova, Minnesota Twins, 1995
• Mike Greenwell, Boston Red Sox, 1987
• Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals, 2012
• Jason Heyward, Atlanta Braves, 2010
• David Justice, Atlanta Braves, 1990
• Kenny Lofton, Cleveland Indians, 1992
• Willie Mays, New York Giants, 1951
• Bake McBride, St. Louis Cardinals, 1974
• Stan Musial, St. Louis Cardinals, 1942
• Mitchell Page, Oakland Athletics, 1977
• Yasiel Puig, Los Angeles Dodgers, 2013
• Tim Raines, Montreal Expos, 1981
• Darryl Strawberry, New York Mets, 1983
• Devon White, California Angels, 1987

10. Tim Salmon, Calfornia Angels (1993)

JEFF CHIU/Associated Press

Stats: 142 G, .283/.382/.536, 146 H, 67 XBH (31 HR), 95 RBI, 93 R, 5 SB

OPS+: 143

WAR: 5.3

Until Mike Trout surpassed him last week, Tim Salmon was the all-time home run leader in Los Angeles Angels franchise history with 299.

At 24 years old, Salmon was the No. 5 prospect in baseball at the start of the 1993 campaign, according to Baseball America. He had hit .347/.469/.672 with 38 doubles, 29 home runs and 105 RBI in 118 games at Triple-A the previous year.

That production immediately translated to the majors, and he tied for ninth in the American League home run race with 31 while showing an advanced approach with 82 walks and a .382 on-base percentage.

He won AL Rookie of the Year honors unanimously over Chicago White Sox right-hander Jason Bere.

9. Kyle Lewis, Seattle Mariners (2020)

Stephen Brashear/Associated Press

Extrapolated Stats: 158 G, .307/.399/.497, 41 XBH (34 HR), 87 RBI, 121 R, 11 SB

Extrapolated OPS+: 150

Extrapolated WAR: 6.4

Kyle Lewis' first taste of MLB action came in 2019, and he slugged five doubles and six home runs in 75 plate appearances as a September call-up.

Those numbers, however, were accompanied by a 29-to-3 strikeout-to-walk ratio, which raised a red flag about his ability to make enough contact to consistently tap in to his raw power. He did not appear on Baseball America's Top 100 list at the start of the year.

The 25-year-old has been up and down this year, hitting .176 in his last 14 games, but that speaks to just how good he was in the early going since he's still hitting well over .300.

On top of his offensive production, Lewis has also been a pleasant surprise in center field after playing primarily left field at Double-A in 2019.

8. Frank Robinson, Cincinnati Redlegs (1956)

Associated Press

Stats: 152 G, .290/.379/.558, 166 H, 71 XBH (38 HR), 83 RBI, 122 R, 8 SB

OPS+: 143

WAR: 6.6

Still the only player to win the MVP Award in each league, Frank Robinson made an immediate impact for the Cincinnati Redlegs as a 20-year-old rookie in 1956.

His 38 home runs tied for second in the National League and marked the second-highest total in history for a player prior to his age-21 season, trailing only Mel Ott's 42 in 1929.

It was no coincidence the Redlegs—as the Reds were known for five years in the 1950s—went from 75-79 afterthoughts in 1955 to 91-63 contenders with Robinson penciled in to the lineup alongside Ted Kluszewski and Wally Post.

Robinson earned a spot on the NL All-Star team, won the NL Rookie of the Year Award unanimously and finished seventh in NL MVP balloting.

7. Tony Oliva, Minnesota Twins (1964)

Uncredited/Associated Press

Stats: 161 G, .323/.359/.557, 217 H, 84 XBH (32 HR), 94 RBI, 109 R, 12 SB

OPS+: 150

WAR: 6.8

Tony Oliva is one of the best players who is not enshrined in Cooperstown.

He hit .304/.353/.476 and racked up 43.1 WAR in a 15-year career, winning three batting titles and earning eight AL All-Star selections.

His first batting title came in his rookie season of 1964, when he hit .323 to top Brooks Robinson (.317), Elston Howard (.313) and Mickey Mantle (.303). He also led the league in hits (217), doubles (43), runs (109) and total bases (374).

He won Rookie of the Year honors easily and finished fourth in MVP voting behind Robinson, Mantle and Howard.

6. Ted Williams, Boston Red Sox (1939)

Associated Press

Stats: 149 G, .327/.436/.609, 185 H, 86 XBH (31 HR), 145 RBI, 131 R, 2 SB

OPS+: 160

WAR: 6.8

Ted Williams wasted zero time establishing himself as one of the best hitters in baseball.

As a 20-year-old rookie in 1939, he hit .327 with more walks (107) than strikeout (64), crushing 44 doubles, 11 triples and 31 home runs and leading the AL in RBI (145) and total bases (344).

His debut came prior to the inception of the Rookie of the Year Award, but he finished fourth in AL MVP voting behind legends Joe DiMaggio, Jimmie Foxx and Bob Feller.

Foxx, his teammate, hit .360/.464/.694 with 35 home runs and 105 RBI, giving Boston one of the most dangerous duos in history.

5. Luis Robert, Chicago White Sox (2020)

Paul Beaty/Associated Press

Extrapolated Stats: 154 G, .265/.329/.536, 72 XBH (41 HR), 102 RBI, 102 R, 23 SB

Extrapolated OPS+: 132

Extrapolated WAR: 8.3

Would Luis Robert be able to maintain his pace over a full season? Would he get even better and make a run at a 10.0-WAR season?

There's no way to know what a 162-game debut would look like for the Chicago White Sox's young superstar, but the extrapolated stats are eye-popping.

His stellar output should come as no surprise after he joined the White Sox as one of the most hyped international prospect of all time. Over three minor league levels last year, he posted a .328/.376/.624 line that included 31 doubles, 11 triples, 32 home runs and 36 steals.

As impressive as his offensive game has been, his defense has arguably been even better. His 11 defensive runs saved lead all of baseball, and his 19.8 UZR/150 speaks to his incredible range in center field.

Because this is a projection, it's hard to rank him any higher on this list, but there's a case to be made that Robert should be as high as No. 2.

4. Fred Lynn, Boston Red Sox (1975)

Associated Press

Stats: 145 G, .331/.401/.566, 175 H, 75 XBH (21 HR), 105 RBI, 103 R, 10 SB

OPS+: 162

WAR: 7.4

After hitting .419 with two home runs and 10 RBI in a cup of coffee in 1974, Fred Lynn took over as the Boston Red Sox's starting center fielder the following year.

His .331 average ranked second in the AL, and he led the league in slugging (.566), OPS (.967), doubles (47) and runs (103).

He earned a spot on the AL All-Star team, and the accolades poured in once the season was over. He won a Gold Glove Award and the AL Rookie of the Year Award, and he became the first rookie to win an MVP Award (Ichiro Suzuki has since joined him).

Lynn also helped the Red Sox improve from 84 to 95 wins, and they reached the World Series before losing to the Cincinnati Reds in a seven-game thriller.

3. Ichiro Suzuki, Seattle Mariners (2001)

MARK J. TERRILL/Associated Press

Stats: 157 G, .350/.381/.457, 242 H, 50 XBH (8 HR), 69 RBI, 127 R, 56 SB

OPS+: 126

WAR: 7.7

The Seattle Mariners signed Ichiro Suzuki to a three-year, $14.1 million contract prior to the 2001 season.

He had already played nine professional seasons in Japan, batting .353 with 1,278 hits and establishing himself as a pop culture phenomenon.

The 27-year-old made a seamless transition to the MLB game, winning the AL batting title (.350) and leading the majors in hits (242) and steals (56).

He started the All-Star Game, won the AL Rookie of the Year Award, took home Gold Glove and Silver Slugger honors and joined Fred Lynn as the only rookies to win an MVP Award.

The 2001 Mariners tied an MLB record with 116 wins, and they still stand as the club's most recent playoff team.

2. Aaron Judge, New York Yankees (2017)

Kathy Willens/Associated Press

Stats: 155 G, .284/.422/.627, 154 H, 79 XBH (52 HR), 114 RBI, 128 R, 9 SB

OPS+: 171

WAR: 7.9

Detractors will point to his MLB-leading 208 strikeouts as a reason Aaron Judge doesn't belong this high.

He also, however, led the league with 127 walks, and his .422 on-base percentage trailed only Mike Trout's .442. So, the significant swing-and-miss tendency he displayed was not a hindrance to elite-level offensive production.

The 6'7" slugger broke Mark McGwire's long-standing rookie record of 49 home runs, though his mark lasted just two years before Pete Alonso broke it with 53 long balls last season.

Nevertheless, Judge still stakes claim to the No. 2 spot on this list thanks to his significant offensive impact. To that point, his 171 OPS+ ranks second to Jose Abreu's 173 among qualified rookies since 1900—ahead of even the OPS+ of the No. 1 rookie on this list.

1. Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels (2012)

Jeff Chiu/Associated Press

Stats: 139 G, .326/.399/.564, 182 H, 65 XBH (30 HR), 83 RBI, 129 R, 49 SB

OPS+: 168

WAR: 10.5

Who else?

The 10.5-WAR season Mike Trout put together in 2012 stands as the most valuable rookie campaign by a position player by a wide margin:

• Mike Trout, 2012: 10.5
• Dick Allen, 1964: 8.8
• Aaron Judge, 2017: 7.9
• Ichiro Suzuki, 2001: 7.7

He led the AL in OPS+ (168), runs (129) and steals (49) and showed his toolbox of skills on the way to an All-Star selection, Rookie of the Year honors and a runner-up finish in MVP voting.

The mix of power, speed and defense he displayed has never been matched by a rookie.

All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs unless otherwise noted.