B/R Staff's Most Underrated, Overrated Picks for 2020 NFL Season
Few stances in the sports realm are as constant and as demonstrative as "X is overrated!" or "Y is underrated!"
We're here to do that 40 times, just as the 2020 NFL regular season kicks off.
Bleacher Report NFL correspondents Gary Davenport, Brad Gagnon, Kalyn Kahler, Matt Miller and Brent Sobleski have thoughts on the league's most over- and underrated players, coaches, teams and rookies.
Read 'em and weep.
Most Overrated Player
1 of 8
Gary Davenport: Jacksonville Jaguars LB Myles Jack
The Jacksonville Jaguars have seemingly purged every decent player on the defense, but general manager Dave Caldwell saw fit to give an average linebacker over $14 million a season. That says all you need to know about the current Jags regime.
Brad Gagnon: Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Tom Brady
There are naturally humongous expectations for Brady in Tampa, but the reality is he hit a wall hard in 2019, and precedent indicates that at 43, he's unlikely to recover. In his last 12 games (including a playoff mess against the Tennessee Titans), Brady completed 59.4 percent of his passes for only 14 touchdowns, a 6.2 yards-per-attempt average and an 81.1 passer rating. Only three qualified passers posted lower ratings than that on the 2019 season. Maybe he'll be slightly better with more support in a new setting, but Brady is no longer remotely dominant.
Kalyn Kahler: Tom Brady and TE Rob Gronkowski
Don't get me wrong—I was thrilled by Gronk's unretirement and Brady's free-agent move to Tampa. It is going to be a much more exciting season in Tampa than any in recent history, but the preseason hype is almost impossible to match on the field. I spoke to Joe Montana earlier this summer about what it was like to end his career elsewhere, and he talked about how nervous he was to prove he could still play at an elite level with a new team. There are huge expectations here, and this duo will be good and lift the Bucs offense, but in a talented NFC South, it's not going to be easy.
Matt Miller: Seattle Seahawks WR DK Metcalf
This isn't predraft bias talking—I had Metcalf ranked No. 32 overall—but rather the expectations and hype placed on a good but not great wide receiver. The potential is there for him to reach that level, but Metcalf is still the No. 2 option in Seattle behind Tyler Lockett and is being hyped as the next Calvin Johnson, which is unfair to him.
Brent Sobleski: Minnesota Vikings QB Kirk Cousins
This had to be a quarterback, right? No position in sports receives more attention and credit than the one that takes snaps. As a result, some QBs tend to be overblown when it comes to their actual performance. Cousins is a good quarterback; he's not an elite quarterback. He's not in the same class as the league's best signal-callers. Instead, he's very good at getting what a defense gives him—which is an important trait for any quarterback. At the same time, he's not an offensive leader who consistently elevates the play of those around him.
Most Underrated Player
2 of 8
Gary Davenport: Buffalo Bills S Jordan Poyer
Maybe it's because he plays in a small market, but when folks talk about the best safeties in the NFL, Poyer's name rarely comes up. He's also never been named to the Pro Bowl. But over the last three seasons, the 28-year-old has been a key contributor for one of the better defenses in the league.
Brad Gagnon: Indianapolis Colts LB Darius Leonard
You rarely hear Leonard's name come up when peeps discuss elite NFL players, and I can't figure out why that is. Sure, he's an off-ball linebacker who doesn't rack up sacks, but we ought to talk about him like we do Bobby Wagner or C.J. Mosley. He's the only player in the last quarter-century to record five-plus sacks, five-plus interceptions and five-plus forced fumbles in his first two NFL campaigns.
Kalyn Kahler: Detroit Lions QB Matthew Stafford
This isn't a creative pick because Stafford is underrated every year. The Lions are never any good, and he's never won a playoff game, but maybe this will be the year the team finally puts it together so the NFL world can appreciate Stafford. He was playing at an MVP level before his season-ending back injury midway through the 2019 season. Detroit's defense was so bad that hardly anyone noticed that he was on pace to approach the 5,000-yard mark again and had 19 touchdown passes in eight games. Stafford deserves better from his defensive-minded head coach.
Matt Miller: Chicago Bears WR Allen Robinson II
It's really too bad we've never seen Robinson with a top-tier talent at quarterback, and he still produces at Pro Bowl clips. Robinson is a supreme talent being wasted by mediocre quarterbacking.
Brent Sobleski: Kansas City Chiefs OT Mitchell Schwartz
Schwartz is one of the league's best offensive tackles. He's the game's best right tackle. His technical wizardry almost rivals his former teammate, the Hall of Fame-bound Joe Thomas. He was the best player on the field for the entirety of Super Bowl LIV. Yet the 31-year-old blocker has never been fully recognized in accordance with his performance level. The fact that he's never made a Pro Bowl is borderline criminal.
Most Overrated Team
3 of 8
Gary Davenport: Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Maybe it will all come together for the Tom Brady-led Buccaneers in 2020. But anointing Tampa a Super Bowl contender before the new-look Buccaneers have even played a game feels like an old trap that we keep falling into. The team that wins the offseason more often than not disappoints once the games start—just ask the 2019 Browns.
Brad Gagnon: New England Patriots
Only a handful of teams have better Super Bowl odds than the Pats, despite the fact that they lost Brady, Jamie Collins Sr., Kyle Van Noy, Danny Shelton, Dont'a Hightower, Marcus Cannon and Patrick Chung for various reasons this offseason. This wasn't a great team down the stretch last year (it lost five of its last nine games including the playoffs), and it's a heck of a lot worse now.
Kalyn Kahler: Cleveland Browns
The 2020 Browns are certainly not experiencing the preseason hype of the 2019 Browns, but there will be more growing pains in new head coach Kevin Stefanski's offense than are expected. The Browns did sign top free agents in tight end Austin Hooper and tackle Jack Conklin, but after a disappointing 2019, Baker Mayfield and the offense are transitioning to a new system without the full offseason of work. These Browns will struggle for the first half of the season as they figure things out under Stefanski.
Matt Miller: San Francisco 49ers
Kyle Shanahan is a very good coach, but this roster has taken huge hits. Trent Williams hasn't played football in a year. Javon Kinlaw is expected to replace an All-Pro-caliber player in DeForest Buckner as a rookie. And then there is the high number of injuries we're already seeing from the 49ers camp. The Super Bowl hangover is real, and it's hitting Santa Clara.
Brent Sobleski: Buffalo Bills
Let's not get in a rush to crown the Bills before they earn it. Yes, everything is trending in the right direction, and the big, bad New England Patriots look like they're about to experience a downswing through a transitionary period. With that said, the main hangup remains at the quarterback position where the Bills' success hinges on Josh Allen's continued development. Everything is in front of the Bills, and they have the talent to take over the AFC East; they just have to prove it.
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Most Underrated Team
4 of 8
Gary Davenport: Buffalo Bills
Despite making the postseason in two of the last three seasons, the Bills are flying under quite a few radars. But this is a team with a stout defense, a loaded backfield and (with the addition of Stefon Diggs) a solid array of passing-game weaponry. If Josh Allen can take the next step at quarterback and improve his accuracy, the Bills could be a legitimate threat to the Ravens and Chiefs in the AFC.
Brad Gagnon: Atlanta Falcons
I have the Falcons way higher than my colleagues in our latest power rankings. I know they've lacked consistency in recent years and are thus untrustworthy, but this is basically the same core that dominated in 2016 en route to the Super Bowl. In their 6-2 finish to the 2019 season, they often looked as dominant as they did in '16. Are they finally over the trauma from their Super Bowl LI meltdown? It's possible, and they definitely have the talent to contend in 2020.
Kalyn Kahler: New England Patriots
I know it sounds impossible that New England could ever be underrated, but they have been seriously downgraded this offseason, as far as expectations go, with the loss of Tom Brady to Tampa Bay and the surprising number of key players who opted out. Sorry, Buffalo and Miami—I expect Bill Belichick to expertly design an offense around a rejuvenated Cam Newton and lock up the AFC East title yet again.
Matt Miller: Miami Dolphins
Opt-outs at wide receiver might hurt this team, but the Dolphins are far from the squad we thought was tanking a year ago. Head coach Brian Flores and general manager Chris Grier are amazing at their jobs and have this team headed in the right direction. In an uneven AFC East, Miami could make plenty of noise.
Brent Sobleski: Indianapolis Colts
Two years ago, the Colts went 10-6 and made the postseason. The team looked built to contend for years. Then Andrew Luck abruptly retired. Jacoby Brissett proved he wasn't a viable replacement. So the Colts signed Philip Rivers. Rivers will start behind arguably the game's best offensive line, and the team has a loaded backfield and multiple talented receiving threats. Paired with Matt Eberflus' swarming defense that now includes DeForest Buckner, this should once again place the Colts in the playoff conversation.
Most Overrated Coach
5 of 8
Gary Davenport: Jon Gruden, Las Vegas Raiders
Gruden got a jaw-dropping 10-year, $100 million contract to resurrect the Raiders—and then went 11-21 in his first two seasons at the helm. Yes, Gruden won a Super Bowl in Tampa. But he did that with a team that Tony Dungy built, and for his career "Chucky" is a whopping four games over .500.
Brad Gagnon: Mike McCarthy, Dallas Cowboys
No hate intended here because McCarthy has been successful and appears to be doing his best to evolve, but I have to see it to believe it. There seems to be a perception he can put the Cowboys over the top in 2020, but this is the guy who ruined the Packers with his archaic, stubborn offensive approach. And in his last eight seasons with the highest-rated passer in NFL history, he won just a handful of playoff games.
Kalyn Kahler: Gruden
The Raiders have underwhelmed since their long-awaited reunion with Gruden in 2018. The pass rush has struggled since trading Khalil Mack to Chicago, and the offense has also been a disappointment under Gruden's play-calling (28th and 24th in scoring offense). He has only won 11 games in two seasons. Though the Raiders flirted with a wild-card spot late in the season in 2019, the AFC West includes the Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes, so Gruden is going to have to figure out a way to live up to his reputation as an iconic offensive mind.
Matt Miller: Sean Mcvay, Los Angeles Rams
A career 33-15 record and a voice that sounds like Jon Gruden doesn't match the reverence McVay's name inspires from NFL insiders and owners. His buddies got hired by knowing him, and in the meantime, he struggled to put a winner on the field in 2019. McVay is a good coach, there's no doubt, but he's not a top-five NFL head coach like many want him to be.
Brent Sobleski: Gruden
People know and love Gruden thanks to his fiery sideline demeanor and the decade he spent working in the media. The biggest question when he returned to the sideline was whether the game passed him by while he sat in the Monday Night Football booth. We've seen mixed results with an 11-21 record through two seasons since rejoining the Raiders organization. Even worse, the head coach/play-caller's team ranked 28th and then 24th in scoring offense the last two seasons.
Most Underrated Coach
6 of 8
Gary Davenport: Brian Flores, Miami Dolphins
That Flores didn't get a single Coach of the Year vote last season is a little baffling. Yes, the Dolphins were 5-11 in his first season in charge. But getting five wins out of the most talent-deficient team in the league was quite an achievement.
Brad Gagnon: Flores
The Dolphins were clearly tanking last year, but Flores didn't care. His team was outscored by a league-high 188 points and started 0-7 with no remarkable talent on either side of the ball. Yours truly asked at the end of September if the Dolphins were the worst team in NFL history. And yet they went 5-4 after the winless start to the season. I can't wait to see what Flores can squeeze out of some actual talent in 2020.
Kalyn Kahler: Ron Rivera, Washington Football Team
Rivera commands appreciation and respect around the league, but not enough considering the challenges he is tasked with navigating this season. He was diagnosed with cancer last month, and as a coach, he's dealing with the renaming of the franchise, a workplace sexual harassment investigation and a controversial owner. No matter what happens to the Washington Football Team on the field this season, Rivera's ability to lead his players through the turmoil within that organization will be an impressive feat.
Matt Miller: Sean McDermott, Buffalo Bills
The rejuvenation of the Buffalo Bills is in large part due to the culture installed by the former undefeated high school wrestler. McDermott is both a CEO and an X's and O's coach who has commanded discipline and accountability from a team on the rise.
Brent Sobleski: Bill O'Brien, Houston Texans
We've all made fun of the Texans and Bill O'Brien based on some of the moves he has made in the past year as the team's general manager, and deservedly so. However, no one can deny the Texans' track record of success with four AFC South division titles in the last five years and only one losing season since O'Brien took over the team. A few other franchises around the league would love to be laughed at while experiencing similar success.
Most Overrated Rookie
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Gary Davenport: Washington Football Team RB Antonio Gibson
Don't get me wrong—Gibson is a talented young running back who could have a bright future. But he also carried the ball all of 33 times at Memphis in 2019. When Washington parted ways with Adrian Peterson, the hype around Gibson (especially in fantasy football) got completely out of hand.
Brad Gagnon: Arizona Cardinals LB Isaiah Simmons
Simmons is one of the most talented players in this rookie class, but his versatility is his strongest suit, and the Cardinals seem stuck on keeping him in one spot. That could make it extremely difficult for the Clemson product to live up to the hype as a rook.
Kalyn Kahler: Green Bay Packers QB Jordan Love
According to reports out of Green Bay, Love struggled in his first training camp. Who cares? The rookie first-round pick was never going to threaten Aaron Rodgers for the starting job this season, so the attention placed on Love since the Packers surprisingly traded up to take him isn't warranted. I don't expect to see Love at any point this season.
Matt Miller: Los Angeles Chargers QB Justin Herbert
It shouldn't be a surprise if Herbert doesn't play much this year. Too many scouts saw the body and the arm and thought he was Carson Wentz, but his processing skills must speed up in a hurry before he's ready to live up to his status as a top-10 draft pick.
Brent Sobleski: Cincinnati Bengals QB Joe Burrow
Hear me out before you blow a gasket. Joe Burrow will be an excellent NFL quarterback one day. He has all the tools and intangibles to be a true franchise player. All of that can be true while still thinking he's going to struggle as a rookie thanks to poor roster construction on the Cincinnati Bengals' behalf. Cincinnati features one of the worst offensive fronts in football. Yes, the Bengals have some fantastic weapons, but Burrow must remain upright to take advantage of the situation. They were the worst team in the league last season for a reason, and Burrow will be placed in difficult positions all year because of the squad's shortcomings.
Most Underrated Rookie
8 of 8
Gary Davenport: Cincinnati Bengals LB Logan Wilson
Wilson may not begin his rookie season as the starting "Mike" linebacker for the Bengals. But by Thanksgiving, he's going to be playing significant snaps—and he has the tools to be a fixture in the middle of the Cincinnati defense for years to come.
Brad Gagnon: New York Jets WR Denzel Mims
A dozen wide receivers were drafted ahead of Mims, but watch for him to be one of the most productive rookies in the league. He's 6'3" and 207 pounds with 4.38 speed, he went over 1,000 yards twice at Baylor and scored 12 touchdowns as a senior, and he should gain plenty of reps in a wide-open Jets offense now that he's recovered from a hamstring injury.
Kalyn Kahler: Philadelphia Eagles QB Jalen Hurts
The Eagles know the importance of a good backup quarterback, and judging by Carson Wentz's long injury history, Hurts could have a more significant impact this season than we expect. Since there were so many able veteran quarterbacks available for little cost this offseason, the Eagles likely didn't draft Hurts in the second round to just be a good backup. If Wentz gets hurt again, I can see a future in Philly for Hurts, whose traits fit the offensive trend led by the Ravens and Chiefs with their mobile quarterbacks.
Matt Miller: Jacksonville Jaguars Edge-Rusher K'Lavon Chaisson
There is so much buzz about Chase Young, and it's very deserved, but this could be just like last season when Nick Bosa stole the headlines and too many overlooked what Josh Allen did in Jacksonville. That's the case with Chaisson, an excellent talent who was just starting to put it all together at LSU before he was drafted. Young will get the headlines, but Chaisson could have a better season.
Brent Sobleski: Tampa Bay Buccaneers S Antoine Winfield Jr.
The Buccaneers landed arguably the best safety prospect in this year's draft class with the 45th overall pick, but that has been lost in the shuffle thanks to a breathtaking offseason that redefined the organization. Let's not forget Winfield because his skill set is spectacular as a backline ball hawk and sound tackler reminiscent of his father's fundamental open-field stops. Two injury-plagued seasons prior to his breakout 2019 performance is the only reason why Winfield wasn't selected in the first round. The rookie safety may be underrated now, but he'll likely receive plenty of attention once he's making play after play for the nationally hyped Buccaneers.
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