Preakness 2020: Early Predictions Post-Kentucky Derby

Now that the Belmont Stakes and Kentucky Derby are in the books, attention turns toward the 2020 Preakness Stakes on Oct. 3 to see how the final race of the Triple Crown season will end up.

Coming into the Kentucky Derby, Tiz the Law looked to be unbeatable with four straight victories in 2020. He won the Belmont Stakes, which was shortened from 12 to nine furlongs, by 3¾ lengths.

Since there were more than two months between the Belmont and Kentucky Derby, Tiz the Law was given a tune-up at the Travers Stakes on Aug. 8. The son of 2014 Florida Derby champion Constitution finished 5½ lengths ahead of Caracaro at Saratoga Race Course.

Despite a valiant effort coming around the final stretch, Tiz the Law was unable to catch up with Authentic.

With no chance to have a Triple Crown winner this year, it remains unclear which horses will make the journey to Baltimore in four weeks.

If Tiz the Law takes part in the Preakness Stakes, the odds should remain in his favor despite Saturday's loss. He's been terrific in shorter races throughout his career, especially this year. Churchill Downs was tied with Saratoga Race Course for the longest event he's been part of (10 furlongs).

The Preakness would normally be the shortest race of the Triple Crown (9½ furlongs), but it will end up being slightly longer than the Belmont because of the unusual nature of the schedule this year.

Going with the other obvious candidate to leave Pimlico Race Course victorious is Authentic. The Bob Baffert-trained horse earned the biggest victory of his career at the Kentucky Derby. He was coming off a win at the Haskell Stakes on July 18, five weeks after being runner-up at the Santa Anita Derby.

Per Brad Stephens of Horse Racing Nation, the biggest question for Authentic coming into the Kentucky Derby was stamina and closing speed:

"There were questions about how Authentic would handle the 1¼ miles after barely hanging on last month to win the Grade 1 Haskell at 1 1/8 miles. He answered those doubts Saturday to become a Derby champion.

"... [Jockey John] Velazquez had to take his time working Authentic over toward the rail, and was able to finally get out in front going into the first turn. The fractions went in :22.92, :46.41 and 1:10.23 as Tiz the Law closely tracked Authentic."

The next question for Authentic to answer is if he can be in peak condition with a four-week layoff between races. He's never had less than six weeks between races in his career.

One contender who could spoil things for both Tiz the Law and Authentic is Art Collector. The three-year-old colt likely would have been a top contender at Churchill Downs, but a foot injury forced his camp to withdraw him from the race.

Trainer Tommy Drury told reporters Art Collector is on track to run at Pimlico on Oct. 3: "Once we put the Derby behind us, our focus is on the Preakness and trying to get him there. That's where my mindset is. The biggest reason I want to watch the Derby is I want to see who we have to run against in the Preakness."

Art Collector turned a corner last November and rattled off five straight wins leading up to what could have been a triumphant moment at the Kentucky Derby. He won the Blue Grass Stakes on July 11 and Ellis Park Derby on Aug. 9.

Assuming the foot injury that kept him out of the Run for the Roses was a minor setback, Art Collector could return in a blaze of glory at the Preakness Stakes.