Kentucky Derby Picks 2020: Predictions for Projected Lineup at Churchill Downs

The 146th running of the Kentucky Derby will be unlike any other. 

Rather than taking place in May, the race was moved to the first weekend in September because of the coronavirus pandemic.

The derby will also serve as the second leg of the Triple Crown after the Belmont Stakes ran in late June. Rather than start the discussion for who could win one of the most notable achievements in the sport, Saturday's race will only zoom in on it. 

That means only one horse will grab the headlines leading up to post time, and deservedly so. 

The 2020 Kentucky Derby is Tiz the Law's race to lose. The stallion has passed every test this season and picked up a win at the Belmont along the way. 

Saturday may serve as his official coming-out party, but make no mistake, Tiz the Law has already shown what makes him the odds-on favorite at Churchill Downs.

Here's a look at who will try to spoil his run for the roses. 

2020 Kentucky Derby Post Positions 

(odds via Twin Spires)

1. Finnick the Fierce (50-1)
2. Max Player (30-1)
3. Enforceable (30-1)
4. Storm the Court (50-1)
5. Major Fed (50-1)
6. King Guillermo (20-1)
7. Money Moves (30-1)
8. South Bend (50-1)
9. Mr. Big News (50-1)
10. Thousand Words (15-1)
11. Necker Island (50-1)
12. Sole Volante (30-1)
13. Attachment Rate (50-1)
14. Winning Impression (50-1)
15. Ny Traffic (20-1)
16. Honor A. P. (5-1)
17. Tiz the Law (3-5)
18. Authentic (8-1)

Predictions

Tiz the Law Wins The Kentucky Derby Easily

This one almost isn't fair.

Tiz the Law has raced at a number of different lengths this year, but perhaps his best performance came during the Travers Stakes on August 8, when he completed the 1¼-mile loop at Saratoga in two minutes, 0.95 seconds. Considering jockey Manuel Franco didn't let his horse reach top speed until the final stretch, it says plenty about the strength and stamina of Tiz the Law that he still managed to win by 5½ lengths. 

He'll be running the same distance in the Kentucky Derby and aiming for his fifth consecutive victory dating back to February. 

Trainer Barclay Tagg last won the Derby with Funny Cide in 2003 before the pair captured the Preakness Stakes a few weeks later. A loss at the Belmont robbed the 82-year-old of a Triple Crown. 

With Tiz the Law, Tagg is back with a contender and arguably better than ever. In a season that's been unlike any other, Tiz the Law has withstood every challenge and fought off every contender. Saturday should be no different as he crosses the finish line first at the Kentucky Derby. 

No Top-Three Finish For Bob Baffert

It sounds absurd because it is. 

Bob Baffert is synonymous with horse racing success and even more so when it comes to the Kentucky Derby. The famed trainer has won the race five times, including 2015 and 2018 en route to Triple Crown wins for American Pharoah and Justify. 

He won't find the same success in 2020. 

Baffert has two entries this year with Thousand Words and Authentic. The latter is the stronger of the bunch at +800 (bet $100 to win $800), but he doesn't particularly stack up well in this field. Authentic last ran at the Haskell Stakes in mid-July, finishing the 1⅛-mile track in 1:50.45.

That won't be fast enough to win, place or show at Churchill Downs. 

With Dr Post, Ny Traffic and Max Player all looking like contenders for second place, Bob Baffert won't be finding himself near any trophies at the Derby. 

Fortunately, he already has plenty at home to keep him company.