Kentucky Derby 2020 Post Positions: Updated Picks and Predictions After Draw

Four months after it was originally scheduled, the Kentucky Derby is finally set to take place Saturday, and it could feature some surprises.

Art Collector was considered a top contender, but he was forced to drop out because of an injury. It leaves Belmont Stakes winner Tiz the Law as the heavy favorite, although there is a long list of competitors capable of crossing the finish line first.

While the draw could play a significant factor, the 146th Run for the Roses will likely come down to which horse is the best.

Kentucky Derby Post Positions

1. Finnick The Fierce: 50-1 (Trainer: Rey Hernandez)

2. Max Player: 30-1 (Trainer: Steven M. Asmussen)

3. Enforceable: 30-1 (Trainer: Mark E. Casse)

4. Storm The Court: 50-1 (Trainer: Peter Eurton)

5. Major Fed: 50-1 (Trainer: Gregory D. Foley)

6. King Guillermo: 20-1 (Trainer: Juan Carlos Avila)

7. Money Moves: 30-1 (Trainer: Todd Pletcher)

8. South Bend: 50-1 (Trainer: William I. Mott)

9. Mr. Big News: 50-1 (Trainer: William Bret Calhoun)

10. Thousand Words: 15-1 (Trainer: Bob Baffert)

11. Necker Islander: 50-1 (Trainer: Stanley M. Hough)

12. Sole Volante: 30-1 (Trainer: Patrick L. Biancone)

13. Attachment Rate: 50-1 (Trainer: Dale L. Romans)

14. Winning Impression: 50-1 (Trainer: Dallas Stewart)

15. Ny Traffic: 20-1 (Trainer: Saffie A. Joseph Jr.)

16. Honor A. P.: 5-1 (Trainer: John Shirreffs)

17. Tiz the Law: 3-5 (Trainer: Barclay Tagg)

18. Authentic: 8-1 (Trainer: Bob Baffert)

Post information and morning line odds available at KentuckyDerby.com.

Predictions

Win: Tiz the Law

Seth Wenig/Associated Press

Why fight it? This is the fastest horse in the field, and he will win the Kentucky Derby.

It's not often a colt enters this race with as impressive of a resume as Tiz the Law, who already won four Grade 1 stakes events, including the Belmont Stakes. The Florida Derby made him a favorite for the first Triple Crown event, and he hasn't done anything to diminish the hype.

Tiz the Law was simply dominant in the Travers Stakes in early August, beating a competitive field by 5.5 lengths:

It's enough to have confidence the three-year-old will do it again even with a crowded field Saturday.

There are still risks, including the fact his lone loss came at Churchill Downs with a third-place finish at Kentucky Jockey Club. The No. 17 post didn't help as it creates a long route for the favorite.

As the odds-on favorite, a win also won't lead to much of a payout for bettors.

It's still the smartest play available out of the numerous options.

Place: Authentic

Gregory Payan/Associated Press

The outside post will have plenty of drama early on as the top three favorites are next to each other on the end.

In a situation like this, experience will help, and Authentic has a lot of it with this team.

The horse is trained by Bob Baffert, who has led five Kentucky Derby winners, including 2018 Triple Crown winner Justify. Jockey John Velazquez has won this event twice, most recently in 2017 aboard Always Dreaming, and has made 21 rides in this event.

It will do a lot to prepare for what will be an unusual running of the race.

Authentic also has plenty of experience on his own, winning four of his five starts with one second-place finish. He skipped Belmont but won the Grade 1 Haskell Stakes in July.

This horse has the best chance to challenge Tiz the Law for a win and should at least finish in the money.

Show: Max Player

Seth Wenig/Associated Press

Though the 30-1 long shot might not win the Kentucky Derby, Max Player has showed he can at least run with the best.

The horse has finished inside the top three in each of his five starts, including the Belmont Stakes and Travers Stakes while trailing Tiz the Law both times.

Veteran trainer Steve Asmussen has been getting everything the most out of the three-year-old and believes the length of the track will play a big role

"The mile-and-a-quarter ought to suit him," Asmussen said Monday, per Marty McGee of Daily Racing Form. "He's getting over this racetrack really well and he's got a great attitude. We've been able to do everything we had hoped to do with him leading into the derby."

Replacing jockey Joel Rosario with Ricardo Santana Jr. creates some uncertainty, but the 27-year-old has had a good year while ranking sixth on the money list, per Equibase. It could be enough for a strong finish at Churchill Downs.