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Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) scores a basket in front of Miami Heat guard Duncan Robinson (55) during the first half of an NBA basketball game Thursday, Aug. 6, 2020, in Lake Buena Vista, Fla. (Kim Klement/Pool Photo via AP)
Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) scores a basket in front of Miami Heat guard Duncan Robinson (55) during the first half of an NBA basketball game Thursday, Aug. 6, 2020, in Lake Buena Vista, Fla. (Kim Klement/Pool Photo via AP)Kim Klement/Associated Press

NBA MVP 2020: Analyzing Why Giannis Holds Edge over LeBron James for Award

Theo SalaunAug 14, 2020

This season, LeBron James has averaged 25.5 points, 7.9 rebounds and a league-leading 10.3 assists while leading the 52-19 Los Angeles Lakers to a No. 1 seed in a stacked Western Conference. But he's not the MVP. Giannis Antetokounmpo is.

Antetokounmpo's Bucks are 56-17 and the No. 1 seed in the East. He's averaged 29.5 points, 13.6 rebounds and 5.6 assists, all while shooting 55.3 percent from the field and playing just 30.4 minutes per game—4.5 fewer than James.

And he's the front-runner for Defensive Player of the Year as well, bolstered not by his averages of one steal and one block per game but instead by the fact that, all season, a near-7-footer has been a disruption across every defensive floorboard and put the clamps on every single position.

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When James is on the bench, Los Angeles is outscored by 1.3 points per 100 possessions. When Antetokounmpo sits down, Milwaukee outscores its opponents by 1.5 points per 100 possessions. But while the Lakers outscore opponents by 9.0 points per 100 possessions when James is on the court, the Bucks dominate by 15.9 when Giannis is.

The 25-year-old Greek superstar may have shouldered less of a burden than James has had to this season, but his statistical impact is undeniable, and his dominance over the regular season is visible to anyone who has watched him fiercely guard his own basket before treating an opponent's hoop like his own personal plaything.

The third notable MVP candidate is James Harden, who has averaged a league-leading 34.4 points, 6.6 rebounds and 7.5 assists—all exceptional numbers. But while his Houston Rockets are outscored by a hefty 2.1 points per 100 possessions when he's resting, they outscore their foes by a moderate 5.6 when he's playing.

At 44-27, Houston is the No. 5 seed in the West and Harden is one of the scariest players to face in the playoffs. But his team is not exceptionally dominant when he's on the court, and not all of that can be attributed to lesser talent than Milwaukee and Los Angeles.

Harden has a much lower defensive impact than James or Antetokounmpo and doesn't kick his team into quite as deadly a gear, so he's outside of the top two running mates for MVP. James has a lower defensive impact than Antetokounmpo and doesn't kick his team into quite as deadly a gear.

Giannis should take home MVP and maybe even DPOY. But that's all right. It will make for a better storyline if LeBron is able to prevent such a decorated superstar from coming away with the most important hardware: the Larry O'Brien Trophy.

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