8 Candidates to Break Bob Gibson's ERA Record in MLB's Shortened 2020 Season
Hall of Famer Bob Gibson set a modern record with a 1.12 ERA in 1968, and no pitcher in Major League Baseball has really come close to breaking it in 52 years since.
That could change in 2020.
Though the designated hitter's presence in both leagues won't make life any easier for pitchers, the 60-game schedule might just make breaking Gibson's record possible. The average pitcher will only make 12 starts, after all. With enough skill, health and luck, anything is possible in such a small sample size.
Of course, anyone who breaks Gibson's record this year will have to bear an asterisk. But because it would still be an official achievement, let's rank the top eight candidates for the task based on their proven ability and potential upside.
8. Sonny Gray, Cincinnati Reds
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A couple of things are working against the idea of Sonny Gray as the new single-season ERA champion.
For one thing, he's tended to shift in and out of acehood throughout his seven-year career. For another, his Cincinnati Reds play their home games amid bandbox dimensions at Great American Ball Park.
Yet the 30-year-old is coming off an All-Star campaign in 2019, and his best work happened in the season's final three months. In 15 starts, he pitched to a 1.94 ERA over 93 innings.
The leap from there to a sub-1.12 ERA over 12 or 13 starts isn't small, but it might not be too great for Gray to handle. He was striking out 11.0 batters per nine innings in his last 15 outings of 2019, and his MLB-best spin rate is one indicator that he might be able to double down on that dominance in 2020.
In short, don't sell Gray, well, short.
7. Walker Buehler, Los Angeles Dodgers
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Last year was Walker Buehler's first truly full season for the Los Angeles Dodgers, and he acquitted himself well with a 3.26 ERA over 182.1 innings.
He'll obviously have to lower his ERA by more than two runs if he wants to beat Gibson in 2020. And yet we're thinking that's doable.
Have you ever seen Buehler's stuff? It's pretty great. Velocity-wise, the 96.6 mph he averaged on his fastball was fifth among all qualified pitchers in 2019. Spin rate-wise, he placed behind only Gray and Justin Verlander.
Buehler, 25, also proved last year that he can aim his pitches with the best of 'em. He walked only 1.8 batters per nine innings, which placed in the top 10 among qualified hurlers.
Back in 2018, he had a 12-start run in which he had a 1.55 ERA. Because he's a more complete pitcher now than he was then, it's possible he has an even better run in him for 2020.
6. Tyler Glasnow, Tampa Bay Rays
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With Tyler Glasnow, the big question that needs answering is whether he can stay healthy.
Even setting aside his bout with the coronavirus, Glasnow's injury history includes shoulder discomfort when he was with the Pittsburgh Pirates in 2016 and, more alarmingly, a forearm strain that limited his first full year with the Tampa Bay Rays in 2019 to just 12 starts.
When the 26-year-old did take the mound last year, however, he was basically unhittable.
He whiffed 76 batters and put up a 1.78 ERA over 60.2 innings, and his xwOBA—a Statcast metric that measures expected production based on strikeouts, walks and contact quality—beat out even those of Verlander and Gerrit Cole.
This, apparently, is what happens when a pitcher pairs an upper-90s fastball with an electric curveball. If a healthy Glasnow has those pitches working this season, he may well build on last year's breakout.
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5. Max Scherzer, Washington Nationals
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Any discussion of dominant pitchers can only go for so long before Max Scherzer's name comes up.
Since 2013, he's been an annual All-Star and a three-time Cy Young Award winner. His track record also includes two no-hitters and a 20-strikeout game, plus a rare 300-strikeout season in 2018.
On a less awesome note, the Washington Nationals ace is 35 years old and coming off a year in which his body gave him trouble in both the regular season and the postseason.
But to these ends, it can't hurt that Scherzer got a few extra months of unforeseen rest. Between that and how much like his usual self he's looked in summer camp, there may be no stopping him this season.
At best, he might even be able to outdo the superb 13-start stretch he had between April 26 and June 30 of 2019, in which he had a 1.70 ERA, 126 strikeouts and only 17 walks in 90 innings.
4. Justin Verlander, Houston Astros
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Justin Verlander is older than Scherzer and not immune to the effects of aging in his own right.
Back in March, the Houston Astros ace had to be shut down with a lat strain and later underwent surgery to repair a groin injury. This all happened shortly after he turned 37 on Feb. 20.
Otherwise, there isn't much difference between Verlander at 37 and Verlander at 27. To wit, he's coming off netting his second American League Cy Young Award on the strength of a 2.58 ERA and 300 strikeouts over 223 innings.
Verlander is also still throwing in the mid-90s with two devastating out pitches in his slider and curveball. With those weapons, it's little wonder he finished so high on the xwOBA board in 2019.
Verlander had an 11-start run in 2019 in which he had a 1.72 ERA and over 12 times as many strikeouts as walks in 73.1 innings. If enough things break his way, he might do better in 2020.
3. Jack Flaherty, St. Louis Cardinals
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If Jack Flaherty wants to break Gibson's ERA record, he only needs to pick up where he left off in 2019.
He began his third year with the St. Louis Cardinals in something of a funk, but he found something when he threw seven innings of one-run ball on July 7. In 16 starts between then and the end of the season, he allowed only 11 earned runs over 106.1 innings.
In ERA-ese, that means he had a 0.93 ERA.
It all might have seemed too good to be true given that Flaherty, 24, is essentially a two-pitch pitcher who relies heavily on his fastball and slider. But from the right perspective, it's easy to see how their heavy movement and similar trajectories make them such an unhittable tandem of pitches.
So even if Flaherty changes nothing from his approach from the stretch run of 2019, he might keep putting up zeroes at the same rate.
2. Gerrit Cole, New York Yankees
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Want to become a $300 million pitcher? Do what Gerrit Cole did in 2019.
Beyond leading the American League with a 2.50 ERA, he also set a single-season record by striking out 13.8 batters per nine innings. By xwOBA, he was easily the top pitcher among all who faced at least 500 batters.
Granted, this was as a member of the Astros. Cole is a New York Yankee now, and that'll require him to pitch at a traditionally hitter-friendly park at Yankee Stadium and in a historically offense-heavy division in the AL East.
He has the stuff for these challenges, though. Between its upper-90s velocity and 95th percentile spin rate, Cole's fastball is arguably the best in all of baseball. He also throws a curve and slider that are plenty nasty in their own right.
At his peak, Cole posted a 1.51 ERA with 143 strikeouts over 89.2 innings in his final 13 starts of 2019. With more of that, Gibson's record will be in his sights.
1. Jacob deGrom, New York Mets
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Though he gave the New York Mets a scare during an intrasquad scrimmage on Tuesday, an MRI revealed on Wednesday that there's nothing seriously wrong with Jacob deGrom's back.
Assuming nothing changes on that front, he's cleared to chase a third straight National League Cy Young Award in 2020.
The 32-year-old regressed from a 1.70 ERA in 2018 to a 2.43 ERA in 2019, but he really only had one bad month (April) and was off to the proverbial races by the second half. In his last 13 starts, he put up a 1.42 ERA with a 111-to-16 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 89 innings.
When he's at his best, deGrom is basically a living cheat code. He works off an upper-90s fastball and mixes in a slider and changeup that both move a ton despite averaging over 90 mph in their own right. What's more, he excels at disguising those three pitches upon release.
Cole and deGrom are basically 1A and 1B as the best pitchers in baseball right now. But since there's probably a little less offense in the NL East, deGrom gets the edge as a threat to Gibson.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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