1 NFL Team from Every Division That Will Be Better Than You Think in 2020

If all goes according to plan, we're fewer than 100 days away from the start of the 2020 NFL season. And beyond that, it won't take long for the surprises to start rolling in. 

Every year, several teams exceed expectations and take division titles, while others at least hit the over on the Las Vegas win-total odds they were assigned before the campaign. 

Based on momentum, offseason gains and emerging players and/or depleted competition—and with Caesars divisional odds in mind—here's a breakdown of one team from every division that will be better than you might think.

AFC East: New York Jets

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AFC East Odds

1. Buffalo Bills +105 (bet $100 to win $105)
2. New England Patriots +145
3. Miami Dolphins +700
4. New York Jets +800

Not only are the Jets much more talented than those odds indicate, but the rest of the teams in Gang Green's division might also be getting too much credit. 

The Dolphins are garnering a lot of buzz after a strong finish to 2019 and a flurry of moves this offseason, but let's keep in mind that Miami still had a scoring margin of minus-188 last season. That roster was historically weak, and that late-season run could have been an aberration. Miami seems like it's still a year away as it undertakes the grooming process with rookie quarterback Tua Tagovailoa. 

The football world is also understandably skittish about condemning the Patriots in the post-Tom Brady era. That's probably because Bill Belichick remains an intimidating force, and nobody wants to be exposed for counting out a team that will seemingly never die.

But the reality is New England's roster is mediocre on paper, and that's not just because Brady is likely to be replaced by unproven sophomore fourth-round pick Jarrett Stidham.

The team also lost its two most active front-seven defenders in Kyle Van Noy and Jamie Collins Sr., which isn't a good sign for a unit that started strong but came back to earth while allowing 21.6 points per game in the final five weeks of the 2019 regular season. 

The Jets went 6-2 in the second half of that campaign, compared to 4-4 for the Pats, 4-4 for the Dolphins and 4-4 for the Bills. Emerging quarterback Sam Darnold fought back from mononucleosis to throw 13 touchdown passes and four interceptions during that stretch, and that all went down despite the absence of superstar linebacker C.J. Mosley (groin injury), the loss of starters Trumaine Johnson (ankle) and Brian Winters (shoulder), and a foot injury to stud safety Jamal Adams. 

Mosley should be healthy, Winters and Adams are back, and they've added hyped first-round rookie tackle Mekhi Becton to the offensive line and intriguing 2020 second-round pick Denzel Mims to the receiving corps.

Free-agent pickup Connor McGovern should team up with Winters to give a boost to the interior offensive line, and their only significant open-market departure, wide receiver Robby Anderson, was replaced by Breshad Perriman. 

Anderson, 27, is a good player but fell short of 1,000 yards in all four of his seasons there. The 26-year-old Perriman, who is slightly younger and 2015 first-round pick, went over 500 yards with five touchdowns in December last season. 

The Bills might be the team to beat in the AFC East after a playoff year and a promising offseason, but look for the Jets to be right there all season. 

AFC North: Cleveland Browns

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AFC North Odds

1. Baltimore Ravens -250 (bet $250 to win $100)
2. Pittsburgh Steelers +350
3. Cleveland Browns +500
4. Cincinnati Bengals +3000

Just as it's easy to understand why nobody is ready to toss the Patriots in the trash, it's obvious why much of the football world isn't prepared to crown the wildly talented Browns. 

They were also wildly talented in 2019, but they lacked discipline and often looked lost during a 2-6 start and never recovered. They've missed the playoffs in 17 consecutive seasons and, unlike the Jets, they won't get any favors in their division.

The Ravens were the league's only 14-win team last year, the defensively stacked Steelers are supposed to get star quarterback Ben Roethlisberger back from an elbow injury, and even the oft-bullied Bengals should be a lot better with top pick Joe Burrow and several veteran free agents joining the fray. 

All of that said, the Browns are even better on paper than they were last season. 

Tackles Greg Robinson and Chris Hubbard struggled while taking a combined 19 penalties and surrendering a combined 10 sacks in 2019, according to PFF, but they've upgraded immensely with rookie first-round pick Jedrick Wills Jr. and free-agent pickup Jack Conklin. That should help third-year quarterback Baker Mayfield in a major way, as should the addition of Pro Bowl tight end Austin Hooper. 

On the other side of the ball, new general manager Andrew Berry got tremendous value in defensive tackle Andrew Billings, cornerback Kevin Johnson and safety Karl Joseph, signing each to one-year deals worth $3.5 million or less, and rookie second-round safety Grant Delpit should be ready to make an immediate impact after three strong seasons as a starter in the SEC. 

On top of that, the Browns will get top pass-rushers Myles Garrett (suspension) and Olivier Vernon (knee injury) back, star receiver Odell Beckham Jr. should be more comfortable in his second season with the team, and the Browns should gain more stability across the board under Berry and new head coach Kevin Stefanski. 

Freddie Kitchens looked like he was in over his head and was probably underqualified for that coaching job last year, and it showed. But Stefanski is more of a proven commodity in NFL coaching circles. 

Put it all together, and it might finally be time for the Browns to live up to the talent and hype. On paper, this team is better than Pittsburgh offensively and as strong as Baltimore defensively. It should be in the mix through December. 

AFC South: Houston Texans

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AFC South Odds

1. Indianapolis Colts +135
2. Tennessee Titans +140
3. Houston Texans +300
4. Jacksonville Jaguars +2500

It was a brutal offseason for the Texans. They were justifiably ridiculed for trading All-Pro receiver DeAndre Hopkins for the expensive, over-the-hill David Johnson and draft capital, and matters were made worse when they lost underrated defensive lineman D.J. Reader on the free-agent market. 

Toss in the fact that the Texans lacked a first-round pick, and it's hard to get fired up about Bill O'Brien's team. 

Still, don't forget that Houston has won this division in each of the last two seasons. The Texans also won a playoff game last year and held a commanding road lead over the eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs in the divisional round. 

That lead evaporated in epic fashion, but the point is this team has gone toe-to-toe with juggernauts in recent years. Losing Hopkins and Reader hurts, but those blows might be softened if J.J. Watt can stay healthy and intriguing young wideout Will Fuller V, 26, can continue to emerge. 

Fuller no longer has Hopkins to hog defensive attention, but the Texans receiving corps remains strong, with Brandin Cooks and Randall Cobb joining Fuller and Kenny Stills. As yours truly wrote recently, it's possible franchise quarterback Deshaun Watson could benefit from no longer using Hopkins as a crutch, just as we saw with Detroit Lions quarterback Matthew Stafford when Calvin Johnson abruptly retired in 2016. 

The Texans are unlikely to suddenly become bad, and the Colts and Titans are just as unlikely to suddenly become great. In fact, it wouldn't be surprising if Tennessee regressed after last year's shocking playoff run. It lost Conklin to the Browns, and it's possible that quarterback Ryan Tannehill and/or running back Derrick Henry will come back to earth after both became Pro Bowlers for the first time out of nowhere in 2019.

And while Indy hopes it has solved its quarterback problem with Philip Rivers, the 38-year-old looked to be running out of gas in a 2019 campaign in which his rate-based numbers plummeted. 

The Texans have a decent shot at winning this division for a third consecutive season. 

AFC West: Denver Broncos

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AFC West Odds

1. Kansas City Chiefs -425
2. Los Angeles Chargers +600
3. Denver Broncos +1000
4. Las Vegas Raiders +1000

OK, the Broncos are unlikely to win a division that features the defending Super Bowl champs, but Denver deserves better odds than the Raiders and maybe even a Chargers squad that might not be as stable at quarterback while transitioning from Rivers/Tyrod Taylor to Justin Herbert. 

That's because, for starters, the Broncos might finally have stability at the sport's most important position.

With the offense under the guidance of strong-armed 2019 second-round pick Drew Lock down the stretch in 2019, Denver went 4-1 while averaging 26.0 points per game in its victories. Lock threw seven touchdown passes and just three picks during that stretch, and he excelled in critical situations despite a lack of weapons following the late-October Emmanuel Sanders trade. 

That has changed now that general manager John Elway used two early draft picks on wide receivers Jerry Jeudy and KJ Hamler and another on pro-ready center Lloyd Cushenberry III. Those guys should help Lock while bolstering emerging star pass-catchers Courtland Sutton and Noah Fant, both of whom excelled when Lock shined late in 2019. 

Throw in that they likely improved the running game by upgrading from Connor McGovern to Graham Glasgow along the interior offensive line and adding two-time Pro Bowler Melvin Gordon III to an already strong stable of backs, and it's hard not be excited about a young but scary-talented offense. We haven't even mentioned recent high picks Garett Bolles and Dalton Risner, or big-money vet Ja'Wuan James.

With star pass-rusher Von Miller still able to dominate, it's hard to find weak spots on either side of the ball in Denver, where the team will get 2018 top-five selection Bradley Chubb back from a knee injury and should benefit from the additions of veterans A.J. Bouye and Jurrell Casey at cornerback and defensive tackle, respectively.  

The Bolts might have more established talent, and Kansas City is king of the West, but the ingredients are there for Denver to do some unexpected damage this fall and winter. 

NFC East: Washington Redskins

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NFC East Odds

1. Dallas Cowboys -105
2. Philadelphia Eagles +115
3. New York Giants +800
4. Washington Redskins +2200

The NFC East is almost always a circus, so we could just as easily have gone with a Giants team that is loaded with young talent. But so, too, are the Redskins, and yet their odds are shockingly low even compared to Big Blue's. 

That might have something to do with the fact that we've become used to the constant tumult surrounding this franchise, but new head coach Ron Rivera might bring a calming presence to D.C. And it doesn't hurt that the man is a two-time NFL Coach of the Year. 

His guidance should be critical, but don't overlook the talent on Washington's roster. 

With highly touted No. 2 overall pick Chase Young on board, the Redskins have five first-round picks along the defensive line or on the edge—four of whom are 25 years old or younger. If Young hits as a rookie and Daron Payne, Montez Sweat and Jonathan Allen continue to improve, that defense could be unreal. Don't forget that the unit already has highly respected veterans Landon Collins and Ryan Kerrigan. 

The offense could remain a problem, especially if the line continues to be a liability as it officially embarks on the post-Trent Williams era. Still, quarterback Dwayne Haskins has a remarkably high ceiling as a second-year first-round pick, and he redeemed himself late in a tough rookie season with a 131.3 passer rating and a completion percentage of 72.1 in his last two outings. 

The Redskins scored 62 points in those games. 

Haskins flashed an obvious rapport with promising rookie receiver (and former Ohio State teammate) Terry McLaurin. If those two can flourish and the also promising but oft-injured running back Derrius Guice can stay healthy, a three-headed offensive monster could mask a questionable offensive line.  

That could be enough for the Redskins to surprise in a wide-open division in which the Eagles haven't been able to stay healthy, the Cowboys might be too top-heavy and the Giants might still have too many flaws. 

NFC North: Detroit Lions

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NFC North Odds

1. Minnesota Vikings +150
2. Green Bay Packers +180
3. Chicago Bears +250
4. Detroit Lions +1000

This all comes down to Matthew Stafford. If the 11-year veteran quarterback can remain on the field and produce the way he did when healthy in 2019, the Lions will have a much better shot at taking a wide-open division than the odds would lead you to believe. 

Before a back injury ended his campaign midway through the season, Stafford was having a career year and appeared to be gaining steam. He posted a 116.2 passer rating in his final three outings and finished with an NFC-best 8.6 yards-per-attempt average. 

Up to that point, the Lions were in the mix. But without Stafford, they went 0-8 in the second half of the season.

The good news is he's healthy. Elsewhere, they could miss departed corner Darius Slay but should be pumped about No. 3 overall pick Jeff Okudah; second-round rookie running back D'Andre Swift should team up with Kerryon Johnson to give them much-needed balance on offense; and there's plenty of trench talent on both sides of the ball. 

The roster isn't flawless but has playoff potential if Stafford stays out there, and it's not as though there's a perfect roster in the NFC North. Aaron Rodgers hasn't been himself for years, and his Packers could still be vulnerable on run defense and short on pass-catching depth.

The Vikings' talented defense was semi-gutted in the offseason, their line could still be a liability and they could miss receiver Stefon Diggs. And don't get me started on the declining Bears and their messy quarterback situation. 

The Lions aren't getting enough respect. 

NFC South: Atlanta Falcons

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NFC South Odds

1. New Orleans Saints -105
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers +150
3. Atlanta Falcons +650
4. Carolina Panthers +1100

Expectations are sky-high as always for the Saints and are freshly sky-high for the Tompa Bay Gronkaneers, but while the Panthers might suffer growing pains following a change-drenched offseason, the window is open for the underrated Falcons to contend in this division. 

That's gotta be the case when the two teams in the NFC South with higher odds have quarterbacks who are a combined 83 years old, especially considering that Tom Brady's productivity fell off a cliff last year and that Drew Brees missed a handful of games because of a thumb injury. 

But this isn't just about the fact that either Hall of Fame signal-caller could suddenly become a liability, paving the way for Atlanta to make a playoff run. The Falcons are good! Yeah, they're coming off back-to-back losing seasons, but they were 7-9 despite being ravaged by injuries in 2018, and they bounced back from a nightmare start to go 6-2 in the second half of a 7-9 2019 campaign. 

Julio Jones and Calvin Ridley have become a dynamic duo at wide receiver for established former MVP quarterback Matt Ryan, whose offensive line looks steadier than ever with 2019 first-round picks Chris Lindstrom and Kaleb McGary set to take off in support of veterans Jake Matthews and Alex Mack. 

The defense still has troubling holes, but Grady Jarrett is a stud, and Deion Jones came back from an injury-derailed 2018 season (foot) and rediscovered his groove as 2019 wore on. In addition, newbies A.J. Terrell (a first-round rookie corner) and Dante Fowler Jr. (signed as a free agent) bring more room for growth than the departed Desmond Trufant and Vic Beasley Jr.

Only four teams had better scoring margins in the final eight weeks of 2019, and there's little reason the Falcons can't continue to be elite in 2020. 

NFC West: Arizona Cardinals

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NFC West Odds

1. San Francisco 49ers -115
2. Seattle Seahawks +250
3. Los Angeles Rams +500
4. Arizona Cardinals +600

A lot of people think the Cardinals will fare damn well in 2020, but they still have the highest odds to finish last in a division that contains the last two NFC champions and a Seahawks squad that hasn't posted a losing record since 2011. 

It'll be tough for Arizona to dethrone San Francisco. But with Hopkins joining Larry Fitzgerald and a slew of up-and-coming receivers in support of reigning Offensive Rookie of the Year Kyler Murray and promising young coach Kliff Kingsbury, they might have the momentum and firepower to at least leapfrog the Seahawks and Rams this season. 

Throw in 2019 breakout running back Kenyan Drake, and the Arizona offense is likely to put on a show. But don't look past a defense that was a punchline in the beginning of the Vance Joseph era before it surrendered a respectable 22.8 points per game in the final four weeks of the season. 

Defensive Player of the Year runner-up Chandler Jones should be complemented wonderfully by rookie top-10 pick Isaiah Simmons, and don't forget about Patrick Peterson or the underrated Budda Baker in the secondary. That unit became less of a liability and more opportunistic as the 2019 season wore on, and it should be even better. 

The Rams are headed in the opposite direction. Jared Goff has regressed, Todd Gurley is gone, 38-year-old Andrew Whitworth has no tire tread left, and in the last 15 months, the defense has lost Fowler, Eric Weddle, Cory Littleton, Ndamukong Suh, Marcus Peters, Aqib Talib, Nickell Robey-Coleman and Lamarcus Joyner.

And while San Francisco looks stronger than it did when it almost won it all last year, the Seahawks defense is a shell of its former self. That team continues to rely too heavily on quarterback Russell Wilson, as fabulous as he is. 

Don't be surprised if the Cards wind up as the runner-up in the league's strongest division.