NFL Mock Draft 2020: 1st-Round Projections and Riskiest Prospects

All educated guesses—in this case, NFL draft picks—inherently come attached with risk.

But the risk level changes from one to the next.

NFL draft prospects can raise red flags for any number of reasons. Medical issues are the most obvious, but inconsistent play or undeveloped skill sets can prove just as problematic.

After running through our latest mock draft for Thursday's first round, we'll zero in on three of the riskiest prospects.

2020 NFL Mock Draft

1. Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow, QB, LSU

2. Washington Redskins: Chase Young, EDGE, Ohio State

3. Detroit Lions: Jeff Okudah, CB, Ohio State

4. New York Giants: Isaiah Simmons, LB, Clemson

5. Miami Dolphins: Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon

6. Los Angeles Chargers: Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama

7. Carolina Panthers: Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn

8. Arizona Cardinals: Tristan Wirfs, OT, Iowa

9. Jacksonville Jaguars: Javon Kinlaw, DT, South Carolina

10. Cleveland Browns: Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia

11. New York Jets: Jedrick Wills, OT, Alabama

12. Las Vegas Raiders: Henry Ruggs III, WR, Alabama

13. San Francisco 49ers (via Indianapolis Colts): Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama

14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Mekhi Becton, OT, Louisville

15. Denver Broncos: CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma

16. Atlanta Falcons: K'Lavon Chaisson, EDGE, LSU

17. Dallas Cowboys: C.J. Henderson, CB, Florida

18. Miami Dolphins (via Pittsburgh Steelers): Austin Jackson, OT, USC

19. Las Vegas Raiders (via Chicago Bears): Kristian Fulton, CB, LSU

20. Jacksonville Jaguars (via Los Angeles Rams): Josh Jones, OT, Houston

21. Philadelphia Eagles: Justin Jefferson, WR, LSU

22. Minnesota Vikings (via Buffalo Bills): Jeff Gladney, CB, TCU

23. New England Patriots: A.J. Epenesa, EDGE, Iowa

24. New Orleans Saints: Jordan Love, QB, Utah State

25. Minnesota Vikings: Tee Higgins, WR, Clemson

26. Miami Dolphins (via Houston Texans): D'Andre Swift, RB, Georgia

27. Seattle Seahawks: Xavier McKinney, S, Alabama

28. Baltimore Ravens: Patrick Queen, LB, LSU

29. Tennessee Titans: Yetur Gross-Matos, EDGE, Penn State

30. Green Bay Packers: Denzel Mims, WR, Baylor

31. San Francisco 49ers: Noah Igbinoghene, CB, Auburn

32. Kansas City Chiefs: Jonathan Taylor, RB, Wisconsin

Riskiest Prospects

Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama

Tua Tagovailoa is doing everything he can to minimize the damage done when he dislocated his hip in November. But he can't do much during this socially distanced predraft process.

He had a medical recheck by an independent doctor. He held a virtual pro day. Teams are still concerned about his NFL outlook, with Pro Football Talk's Mike Florio reporting chatter is rising about Tagovailoa slipping outside of the top 10:

"The talk has become too persistent and widespread to ignore. It comes from a combination of Tua's three lower-body injuries in three college seasons, lingering questions about his recovery from last year's hip surgery, and scuttlebutt regarding other potential physical red flags. And the core problem continues to be the inability of teams to have their doctors examine Tagovailoa."

Could the hip lead to longevity concerns? Does the fact that it wasn't his only injury mean more maladies are on the horizon?

That's a ton of risk to take on, even for the biggest believers in Tagovailoa's talent. If he's healthy, he might be a franchise quarterback for a decade-plus. But if he's not, the draft investment is so rich it could cost a decision-maker their job if it goes awry.

Jordan Love, QB, Utah State

The risk factor with some prospects requires an examination of the subtleties. Not so with Jordan Love, who shows boom-or-bust potential on his college stat sheet.

In 2018, he looked like a rising star with 32 touchdown passes and only six interceptions. One year later, he became a walking turnover machine, managing just 20 passing scores against a whopping 17 picks.

He had a new coaching staff and weaker supporting cast the second time around, but that only forgives so many brutal decisions. Even if scouts are fans of Love's old film and physical tools (6'4", 225 lbs), they still must wrestle with his head-scratchers.

"His 3.6 percent interception rate ranks 102nd out of the 105 FBS quarterbacks who've attended the combine since 2014—only Mitch Leidner (3.9 in 2017), Jameis Winston (3.9 in 2015) and Tanner Lee (3.7 in 2018) threw interceptions at a higher rate in their final collegiate seasons," NFL.com's Mike Band noted.

There probably isn't a middle ground with Love. Either he will make a front office look brilliant as he emerges as the league's next star quarterback or he will put them on thin ice with each interception thrown.

A.J. Epenesa, EDGE, Iowa

There's no way to say A.J. Epenesa disappointed over his three-year run with the Hawkeyes. His past two seasons featured 22 sacks and eight forced fumbles, and he wasn't even a full-time player until 2019.

But there's more to being a good NFL prospect than posting strong numbers in college. Given the rise in competition, question marks with athleticism can prove to be fatal flaws.

As Band wrote, that's a big red flag for Epenesa, since he fell short in virtually every physical test:

"At 6'5" and 275 pounds with 34½-inch arms, Epenesa has the ideal frame for the position, but his lack of speed (5.04 40), quickness (4.46 short shuttle, 7.34 3-cone), explosiveness (9-foot-9 broad jump, 32½-inch vertical leap) and strength (17 bench reps) all raise red flags for a potential early pick. If Epenesa is taken in the first round next week, he will be the first primary edge rusher dating back to 2003 to be selected in Round 1 despite running a 40-yard dash slower than 5.0 seconds."

Maybe the numbers don't matter. Perhaps he had a rough day at the combine. Or maybe he's just one of those players who performs more athletically on the gridiron.

But there's also a worst-case scenario in which Epenesa heads to the NFL as a first-round pick without a defined position. As far as the tests are concerned, he doesn't have the juice to be an outside pass-rusher or the size and strength to play inside. When teams are spending an opening-round selection on someone, they presumably want to know where that player will line up for the next 5-10 years.