NFL Draft 2020: Highlighting Riskiest Mid-1st-Round Picks in Latest Expert Mocks

When it comes to the NFL draft, everyone carries some risk. The 2020 iteration of the event will be no different. 

Every team in the league has at least one player they thought was a "sure thing" who ended up off the team or out of the league in three years. For every successful draft pick in the first round, there's another player who becomes "just a guy" or an outright bust. 

That being said, some prospects are inherently riskier than others. Whether it's less-than-flattering athletic testing, questionable college production or just an overly optimistic projection based on who the player is right now the options get a little riskier once you go beyond the top 10. 

These prospects are being projected in the middle of the first round in different experts' mock drafts, however, that isn't a guarantee they will hit. They may wind up being stars, but there's reason for pause if your team takes them where they are being slotted by the experts. 

Henry Ruggs III, WR, Alabama

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There's been a lot of buzz about Henry Ruggs III ever since the combine when he confirmed what the tape already shows: The man can fly. 

Ruggs ran an absolutely smoking 4.27 40-yard dash at the combine, and the hype was on. The Alabama receiver is being touted as a WR1 prospect and is expected to be taken among CeeDee Lamb and Jerry Jeudy in the first tier of receivers off the board. 

Bleacher Report's Matt Miller has Ruggs heading to the Las Vegas Raiders with the 12th pick in his latest mock. Mel Kiper of ESPN projects he's going to Denver at 15. 

He could pay off for the team willing to take him that high, but there's some reason for concern. Ruggs could wind up being the next Tyreek Hill or DeSean Jackson. There's also a chance he winds up like his most comparable player on Player Profiler, Marquise Goodwin. 

Most star receivers coming out of college were the dominant receiver in their own offense. Even if they don't put up over 1,000 yards or 10 touchdowns they are their own team's leading receiver. Ruggs was the third receiver in Alabama's offense. Jerry Jeudy and DeVonta Smith each had over 1,000 yards and double-digit touchdowns, while Ruggs racked up 746 yards and seven touchdowns. 

Ruggs' ability to win against man coverage is questionable. As Mike Renner of PFF noted, he's among the least productive against man, which he can expect to see a lot in the NFL. 

There's no question that speed is vital in the NFL. The Chiefs and Niners were among the fastest teams in the league and therefore the most lethal. So it makes sense that Ruggs will be an early-to-mid first-rounder. However, there's no guarantee that he doesn't just become a one-trick pony who doesn't pan out as a true No. 1 receiver. 

Austin Jackson, OT, USC

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A rising tide lifts all boats, and it feels like that is what's happening with Austin Jackson's draft stock as we approach the draft. 

There's no doubt this tackle class is talented. The top four prospects project to be Day 1 starters in Jedrick Wills, Mekhi Becton, Tristan Wirfs and Andrew Thomas. However, the second tier for tackles, which features Josh Jones of Houston and Austin Jackson of USC, seems to be creeping up higher and higher in mock drafts. 

It makes sense. Tackle is an extremely valuable position, and these guys seem to have the goods to become starters. However, in Jackson's case, he's not as pro-ready as his contemporaries who are sure to be taken early. 

Evan Silva of Establish the Run has the Tampa Bay Buccaneers taking the tackle at No. 14 in his latest mock draft. Silva makes the case that Jackson's 25 starts for the Trojans at left tackle and his 6'5", 322-pound frame show he's not a project. 

However, his games against Bradlee Anae and A.J. Epenesa show otherwise. Anae—who figures to be a Day 2 selection—had five tackles, a sack and two tackles for loss against the Trojans tackle. Epenesa had four tackles, 2.5 sacks and a forced fumble while primarily lining up against Jackson. 

There's a chance Jackson continues his progression and develops into a franchise left tackle. However, taking him in the middle of the first round after the top four tackles are off the board feels like a reach. If he doesn't develop quickly, it will be difficult for him to live up to the hype from a relatively high draft spot. 

A.J. Epenesa, Edge, Iowa

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Speaking of Epenesa, he isn't a sure-fire first-round either. 

In general, there's a dearth of pass-rushers in this draft. In most mock drafts, only K'Lavon Chaisson, Epenesa and Yetur Gross-Matos are projected to go in the first 32 picks. 

Epenesa has the best production of the lot. He was top 10 in the nation in sacks in 2018 and came back in 2019 with 11.5 more. By comparison, Chaisson only had one season of starting at LSU and was 68th in the nation with 6.5 sacks. 

Daniel Jeremiah of NFL Network has Epenesa going to the New England Patriots at No. 23 in his latest mock. 

There's a lot more to projecting defensive linemen in the NFL than production, though. If it were that easy, teams would just take the nation's leader in sacks every season. Chase Young is that player in 2019, but Sutton Smith was that player in 2017. 

Physical traits and athleticism are key factors as well and must be weighed with production. That's where Epenesa becomes a risky prospect. While he's put some good things on tape, his combine performance was worrisome. 

He ran a 5.04 40-yard dash, which is bad enough as it is, but only put up 17 bench press reps and didn't jump well. He showed little explosiveness or agility in drills, and while you don't want to write off a prospect because of his combine, it's hard to look past Epenesa's. 

According to Player Profiler, Epenesa isn't even in the 50th percentile in any of its athletic measures, including speed score, burst score or agility. Epenesa would be best suited as a 5-tech in a 3-4 defense or even bumping inside in a 4-3. 

Either way, it's a risk to draft him in the mid-first based on his production at Iowa. It isn't clear that he has the athleticism to be a true pass-rushing threat at the next level.