SEC Tournament 2020: Preview and Predictions for Every Team
Top-heavy like Stewie from Family Guy, the SEC has five teams with a legitimate chance to win the conference's tournament this week.
According to the Ken Pomeroy bible of college basketball analytics, all of the top five seeds have a 10-plus percent chance of winning the SEC. His probabilities have No. 1 Kentucky at the top of the pack with 22.0 percent, No. 2 Auburn at 20.3, No. 3 LSU at 17.1, No. 5 Florida at 12.4 and No. 4 Mississippi State at 10.8.
The next-highest? No. 11 Arkansas at 4.6 percent. What a world.
Here's how the schedule shakes out along with predictions for all 14 teams, ranked according to their seed.
14. Vanderbilt Commodores
1 of 14
First matchup: No. 11 Arkansas (Wednesday, 25 minutes after Game 1)
Prediction: Loses first game
The Commodores have two straight wins after losing 16 of their previous 17. But their spoiling is likely over with two of their top scorers (Aaron Nesmith, 23.0 points per game; Clevon Brown, 9.0 points per game) out indefinitely with lower-body injuries.
Guards Saben Lee (18.2 points per game) and Scotty Pippen Jr. (11.9) continue to put up buckets and were instrumental in Saturday’s win over South Carolina, as they and Maxwell Evans combined for 60 of Vandy’s 83 points.
But that won’t be enough against Arkansas, who throttled the Commodores by 20 in January despite Lee dropping 17 on 54.5 percent shooting.
13. Georgia Bulldogs
2 of 14
First matchup: No. 12 Ole Miss (Wednesday, 7 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Wins first game, loses to No. 5 Florida in second round
This is a nightmare to predict. The heart wants to put faith in freshman Anthony Edwards, who is averaging 19.5 points and 5.3 rebounds this season. But the brain recalls January's 10-point loss to Ole Miss in which the Rebels held Edwards to 13 points on just 25 percent shooting.
Ole Miss is good at defending the three (holding opponents to 28.9 percent from deep on the season, 14th-best in the nation), and Georgia struggles from deep—as it shoots a paltry 28.8 percent from deep (326th-highest).
The Bulldogs do hit 52.8 percent of their two-pointers (good for 31st-highest in the country) with Edwards and forward Rayshaun Hammonds (12.6 points and 7.3 rebounds per game) unafraid of getting easy looks.
Since both teams had miserable regular-season finales, as Georgia lost by 30 to LSU and Ole Miss lost by 25 to Mississippi State, the smart move is likely to follow KenPom's adjusted efficiency margin and pick Ole Miss (ranked 93, 12 spots higher than Georgia). But the Rebels are best at preventing what the Bulldogs already don't want to do, and sometimes it's worth trusting a wing's "it" factor in a bottom-of-the-barrel scrap.
12. Ole Miss Rebels
3 of 14
First matchup: No. 13 Georgia (Wednesday, 7 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Loses first game
Breein Tyree (19.7 points per game) is talented and did scrub the floor with Georgia in January’s 10-point win, putting up 20 points, four rebounds, four assists and three steals.
But his ceiling isn’t nearly as high as Edwards’ and that caps the Rebels, who have otherwise lost all of my confidence after totaling just six assists in their Saturday loss to Mississippi State.
11. Arkansas Razorbacks
4 of 14
First matchup: No. 14 Vanderbilt (Wednesday, 25 minutes after Game 1)
Prediction: Wins first two games, loses to No. 3 LSU in quarterfinals
The Razorbacks have some serious juice. They have prolific scoring guards and love to get to the line on offense, and they create turnovers and limit threes on defense.
Three guards average 14-plus points for the Razorbacks: Mason Jones (22 points per game), Isaiah Joe (16.8) and Jimmy Whitt Jr. (14.1). Those gunners and the team's proclivity for the charity stripe (ninth-most free throw attempts in the nation) contribute to a 75.5 point-per-game average.
On defense, the team gets steals while holding opponents to the worst three-point percentage in the nation (27.3 percent). All five starters average a steal or more per game.
This team is too good to lose to Vanderbilt and then good enough to defeat a South Carolina team whose inferior KenPom ranking (69th, to Arkansas' 49th) reflects limited upside. Huge games from Jones and Whitt Jr. powered Arkansas to its March win over LSU, but the high-scoring, high-rebounding Tigers are likely to get their revenge in the quarterfinals.
10. Missouri Tigers
5 of 14
First matchup: No. 7 Texas A&M (Thursday, 7 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Loses first game
Missouri has some potential, as guard Dru Smith is averaging a balanced 12.7 points, 4.2 rebounds, 3.9 assists and 2.1 steals on the season. And he did help lead a 19-point win over Alabama on Saturday, with 17 points and eight assists.
But forward Josh Nebo has Missouri's number. The Tigers have lost both meetings with A&M this season, and Nebo is averaging 16.0 points and 5.5 rebounds in those contests. In the second game, no Tiger had double-digit points, and Smith was held to just four. Some matchups aren't meant to be.
9. Alabama Crimson Tide
6 of 14
First matchup: No. 8 Tennessee (Thursday, 1 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Loses first game
Another tight matchup. Alabama lost to Tennessee by just one point in February, and the needle is hard to move. Ultimately, the Crimson Tide's fate will come down to their shooting.
Alabama averages the fourth-most points in the country with 82.0, thanks to making the third-most threes and taking the 16th-most free throws. Sophomore guard Kira Lewis Jr. has been sensational, averaging 18.5 points, 4.5 rebounds and 5.2 assists—but the team still needs more consistency (as proven by the aforementioned 19-point loss to Missouri despite an 18-point outing from Lewis Jr.).
Tennessee's stingy defense is a nightmare, so Alabama isn't likely to win unless Lewis Jr. is joined in lighting up the box score. John Petty Jr., averaging 14.5 points on 44 percent shooting from deep, will need to deliver.
8. Tennessee Volunteers
7 of 14
First matchup: No. 9 Alabama (Thursday, 1 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Wins first game, loses to No. 1 Kentucky in quarterfinals
The Volunteers have balanced scoring and a stifling defense. Jordan Bowden, John Fulkerson, Yves Pons and Santiago Vescovi all average between 10 and 14 points, while the defense holds opponents to 40.2 percent shooting from the field (45th-best in the nation) and swats the seventh-most shots.
That’s enough to defeat Alabama, but you need more than above-average play to tilt favor away from Kentucky.
7. Texas A&M Aggies
8 of 14
First matchup: No. 10 Missouri (Thursday, 7 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Wins first game, loses to No. 2 Auburn in quarterfinals
At 6'9", 245 pounds, Josh Nebo is a grown man and a menace to game-plan for. Fellow forward Savion Flagg brings physicality of his own while guard Wendell Mitchell is a streaky gunner with obvious ups and downs.
Nebo and the Aggies should comfortably defeat Missouri and could then beat Auburn for a second time (following their 78-75 win over the Tigers on March 4). But Bruce Pearl is a good coach, and Auburn has the tools to adjust and defeat an A&M squad whose lack of range (337th in three-point shooting, hitting just 29.4 percent from deep) makes its spacing vulnerable.
6. South Carolina Gamecocks
9 of 14
Projected first matchup: No. 11 Arkansas (Thursday, 25 minutes after Game 5)
Prediction: Loses first game
South Carolina needed major bench contributions to complement AJ Lawson and Maik Kotsar in a win against Arkansas in January—just barely weathering Jones’ 34-point, 12-rebound, four-assist storm.
That bench scoring will be hard to replicate and, to make matters worse, it’ll be even harder to keep the rest of the Razorbacks from scoring closer to their season averages.
5. Florida Gators
10 of 14
Projected first matchup: No. 13 Georgia (Thursday, 25 minutes after Game 3)
Prediction: Wins first game, loses to No. 4 Mississippi State
Florida should beat Georgia easily because the Gators are a balanced team, not a limited, single-dimensional squad.
Forward Keyontae Johnson scores (14.0 points per game) and gets rebounds (7.1), guard Andrew Nembhard scores (11.2) and notches assists (5.6), and their sharpshooter, Noah Locke, is averaging 10.6 points by hitting 43.2 percent of the 5.9 threes he takes per game.
The Gators could go on a deep run. They lost to Kentucky by just one point on Saturday, helped by a quality 19 points from Scottie Lewis. Unfortunately, forward Kerry Blackshear Jr. (averaging 12.8 points and 7.5 rebounds) left that game with a wrist injury and is questionable for the SEC tournament.
Losing the 6'10", 240-pound Blackshear Jr. makes it hard to imagine a victory against Mississippi State and their 6'10", 250-pound double-double machine, Reggie Perry.
4. Mississippi State Bulldogs
11 of 14
Projected first matchup: No. 5 Florida (Friday, 25 minutes after Game 7)
Prediction: Wins first game, loses to No. 1 Kentucky
Perry is a veritable juggernaut. He's averaging 17.4 points, 10.1 rebounds and 1.2 blocks this season—capped off by a 22 and 14 performance in Mississippi State's 25-point drubbing of Ole Miss on Saturday.
But, despite his contributions, the team is limited. While the Bulldogs have other scorers, Robert Woodard is the only rotation player who hits over 37.1 percent of his threes. And that's why Mississippi State will lose to Kentucky.
The Bulldogs kept it close against Kentucky in their only matchup this season, but Perry was held to 14 points (on 25.0 percent shooting) and eight rebounds in the eight-point loss. Instead, it was Wildcats big Nick Richards piling up 27 points and 11 rebounds. If Kentucky wins the big-man battle, then Mississippi State's limited backcourt will be hard-pressed to keep up.
3. LSU Tigers
12 of 14
Projected first matchup: No. 11 Arkansas (Friday, 25 minutes after Game 9)
Prediction: Wins first game, loses to No. 2 Auburn in semifinals
Something just seems right about LSU this year. The Tigers have five players averaging double-digit points, helping them hit 80.5 points per game (11th-highest in the NCAA) and they take care of the fundamentals—owning the 18th-highest free-throw percentage (76.9 percent) and grabbing the 29th-most rebounds.
Those are the numbers of a team with its priorities straight.
The matchup with Arkansas should be a barn burner, as the teams split their two meetings this season and Arkansas holds the advantage in differential by seven. Each game, Jones and Whitt Jr. popped off for Arkansas while LSU had more balanced scoring.
Ultimately, it's hard to bank on the scoring output of just two guards, so the edge has to be given to the Tigers, who have high-scoring upside in Skylar Mays (averaging 16.7 points, boosted by a 39.4 percent rate on the 4.1 threes he takes per game)—but the depth to survive if he goes cold.
After Arkansas, it's right back into the fog of war with a tightly contested matchup against the Auburn Tigers, who won their regular-season meeting and—as a similarly built but more experienced team—are likely to win again.
2. Auburn Tigers
13 of 14
Projected first matchup: No. 7 Texas A&M (Friday, 7 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Wins first two games, loses to Kentucky in SEC finals
LSU is great because it has a balanced scoring output while emphasizing the free-throw line and rebounding fundamentals. Auburn is a bigger version of that.
Auburn scores 78.0 points per game, which is less than LSU's 80.5 but still good for 26th-most in the country. But Auburn really stands out for its work inside: It has the 12th-most rebounds, 19th-most blocks and fourth-most made free throws in the nation.
Auburn is well-coached, has a prolific scorer in Samir Doughty (16.7 points per game) and a true big in Austin Wiley who patrols the glass and the paint (10.6 points, 9.3 rebounds and 1.6 blocks per game).
On Saturday, Doughty dropped 32 in a 22-point win against Tennessee. He can get hot and, if not, the team is balanced and experienced enough to make a run to the SEC finals—where it'll likely fall to Kentucky's overwhelming talent.
1. Kentucky Wildcats
14 of 14
Projected first matchup: No. 8 Tennessee (Friday, 1 p.m. ET)
Prediction: Wins SEC tournament
Kentucky should win the SEC tournament, even without Ashton Hagans (questionable with a personal issue).
The team has one of the nation's top guards in Immanuel Quickley (averaging 16.1 points per game on 42.8 percent shooting from deep) and a giant in 6'11" Nick Richards (14.0 points, 7.8 rebounds and 2.1 blocks per game).
Guard Tyrese Maxey also has scoring upside (14.0 points per game), while the rest of the team is efficient and plays suffocating defense. The Wildcats love the free-throw line, as they have hit the third-most free throws in the country thanks to the nation's highest free-throw percentage: 79.7.
On the other end, they've had the 16th-most blocks and, more importantly, are holding opponents to just 39.4 percent shooting from the field—20th-lowest in the nation.
First they'll beat a slightly above-average Tennessee team. Then, they should be able to beat a formidable Florida squad for the third time this season, especially if 6'10" Kerry Blackshear Jr. is out. Finally, they'll take the 2019-20 lead against on Auburn—the two teams split their regular-season meetings.
Wiley and the Tigers have largely succeeded against the Wildcats by nullifying Richards' presence (he averaged 10.5 points and 5.0 rebounds in the two meetings). It should be a fantastic game, but Kentucky is ranked higher in NET and KenPom efficiency for a reason. Quickley and Co. should be hard to deny as they limber up for the Big Dance.
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