BS Meter on Latest NFL Free-Agency and Trade Buzz, Rumors

Before the official start of free agency on March 18, we have to get through smokescreen season. General managers put on their best poker face, agents attempt to ramp up market interest in clients, and teams play coy about players on the trade block to maintain leverage.

Now, it's up to us to sort through reports, separating what's fabricated for personal or team gain and the rumors that hold some truth.

In all cases, it's important to trace the speculation back to the original source and break down the facts. Like a detective, you can spot inconsistencies from previous reports, leading to healthy skepticism. 

Let's discuss some of the hottest rumors and give each report a BS meter rating from one to 10. We assigned higher numbers to suspicious information and lower digits for buzz that's closer to reality.

Mutual Interest Between QB Philip Rivers and Indianapolis Colts

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This rumor makes sense on both sides. The Indianapolis Colts left the door open for a change at quarterback when owner Jim Irsay said "all options are on the table" at the position.

The Los Angeles Chargers will allow Philip Rivers to hit the open market. He's "permanently" moved his family to Florida, per ESPN's Adam Schefter. Although many accurately speculated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers would be a logical landing spot, a connection to the Colts picked up steam during the NFL Scouting Combine, per NFL Network's Ian Rapoport. 

According to Football Outsiders, the Colts offensive line ranked second and seventh in pass protection in 2018 and 2019, respectively. Rivers, who has limited mobility, could stay upright and deliver strikes from the pocket behind a stout front line.

In 2019, Rivers threw some head-scratching interceptions, but he still accumulated 4,615 passing yards and 23 touchdowns while completing 66 percent of his passes to go along with 20 picks.

There's one issue with this rumor that raises a question mark. If the Colts sign Rivers, he'll likely start, which would force the coaching staff to bench or trade Jacoby Brissett. The former option seems costly with the incumbent starter set to carry a sizable $12.5 million dead cap hit for the 2020 season.

It's difficult to believe Indianapolis would sideline a moderate investment for a 38-year-old quarterback on the decline, yet Rivers could serve as a slightly better stopgap option under center in a bounce-back season. He also shares Chargers ties with head coach Frank Reich and offensive coordinator Nick Sirianni.

BS Meter: 2

QB Nick Foles Drawing Interest, Jacksonville Jaguars Not Shopping Him

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Thus far, Nick Foles has experienced a rocky transition from the Philadelphia Eagles to the Jacksonville Jaguars. In baseball terms, he's no longer a reliever out of the bullpen. The 31-year-old is expected to lead the huddle for a full season, which hasn't happened in his eight-year career.

Foles has only started 10 or more games twice. In the 2019 season opener, he broke his collarbone and returned in Week 11 but lost his job to Gardner Minshew II, a sixth-rounder from the previous draft.

According to ESPN's Dan Graziano and Jeremy Fowler, the Jaguars would prefer to move forward with Minshew and deal Foles.

"In Jacksonville, word is the Jaguars want to go with Gardner Minshew II as their starting QB and, ideally, find a trade partner for Foles," per the ESPN report.

However, NFL Network's Mike Garafolo said Jacksonville isn't actively shopping Foles but that teams have inquired about him and the front office will listen to offers.

Because of the potential veteran signal-callers set to test free agency, Foles' trade-market draw should be minimal. Furthermore, is there a team desperate enough to acquire an unproven full-time starter in the second term of a four-year, $88 million deal?

With Tom Brady, Ryan Tannehill, Jameis Winston, Teddy Bridgewater and Philip Rivers all potentially free agents in a week, Foles could be the least inspiring option of the group if he's available on the trade block. 

The Jaguars have Minshew and two first-round picks (Nos. 9 and 20) in this year's draft. Foles couldn't hold off his rookie backup for the job, so why wouldn't Jacksonville look to trade him and move forward with a less costly option?

Jacksonville may not want to go public with its desire to deal Foles because that would hurt the trade value he has left after a disappointing campaign. Perhaps the front office isn't calling multiple teams, but it's difficult to believe the veteran signal-caller has garnered legitimate buzz or isn't somehow made available behind closed doors.

BS Meter: 8

Las Vegas Raiders More Likely to Pursue Veteran Backup Than QB Tom Brady

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Tennessee Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota

Initially, the Las Vegas Raiders seemed like the front-runners to sign Tom Brady if he didn't re-sign with the New England Patriots.

The Brady-to-Vegas rumors started with ESPN's Adam Schefter reporting the Raiders' interest in the 42-year-old signal-caller. Minnesota-based journalist Larry Fitzgerald Sr. added that the Silver and Black would offer the coveted six-time Super Bowl champion a two-year, $60 million contract. 

In an attempt to dispel rumors around Brady, NBC Sports Boston's Tom E. Curran pumped the brakes on the strong connection to Las Vegas.

"Las Vegas head coach Jon Gruden, I was told, isn’t going to cold-shoulder Brady if the quarterback’s people reach out but the team isn’t planning to give great chase," Curran wrote.

In addition to Curran's report, NFL Network's Mike Garafolo (h/t Gregg Rosenthal) thinks the team would make a stronger push for someone like Marcus Mariota to back up Derek Carr than outright replace him with Brady. 

In a follow-up tweet, Garafolo recalled that Raiders general manager and former NFL Network draft analyst Mike Mayock listed Mariota as the No. 1 quarterback in the 2015 draft. The five-year veteran signal-caller's mobility probably appeals to Gruden. He'd also come at a modest price after losing his starting job to Tannehill this past season.

The Raiders improved from 4-12 to 7-9 with Carr also making strides in Jon Gruden's system. While Mayock didn't rule out an upgrade to the quarterback position, Brady, who's not mobile and would have to learn or teach a new system in Vegas, doesn't seem like a much better option in terms of on-field capabilities.

In 2019, Brady and Carr had similar numbers with below-average pass-catching groups that didn't feature viable secondary receiving options behind a 1,000-yard wideout or tight end:

• Brady: 4,057 passing yards, 24 touchdowns, eight interceptions, 60.8 completion rate

• Carr: 4,054 passing yards, 21 touchdowns, eight interceptions, 70.4 completion rate

Nevertheless, Carr undoubtedly improved from 2018 to 2019 while Brady took a step backward. 

If Brady wants to play for the Silver and Black, Gruden would likely consider the scenario because of the signal-caller's resume and accolades. With that said, the Raiders aren't in a position to plug him into the offense and contend for a Super Bowl with a bottom-tier defense that ranked 24th in scoring this past season.

In his age-43 term, Brady would have to shoulder a heavy load to compensate for the Raiders defense, which hasn't ranked higher than 18th in scoring since 2002.

As the Patriots' primary starting signal-caller, Brady has played with a top-10 scoring defense for 15 out of 18 seasons. The Raiders's interest in Brady may only be lukewarm because of the stress they'd have to put on his arm to win games.

Right now, it seems UFC president Dana White has more interest in Brady coming to Las Vegas than the Raiders.

BS Meter: 3

DE/OLB Jadeveon Clowney Interested in Playing for New York Giants

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

As free agency approaches in the coming week, Jadeveon Clowney's camp tossed out a bit of shocker, per SNY's Ralph Vacchiano.

"If Dave Gettleman is right, Jadeveon Clowney might be the only elite pass-rusher available on the free-agent market," Vacchiano wrote. "And Clowney is interested in playing for the Giants."

If this is true, Clowney did a Deion Sanders-like backpedal on his comments following a loss to the Green Bay Packers in the NFC divisional round, per ESPN's Brady Henderson:

"I just want to win. I'm trying to get to the Super Bowl by any means. That's what I'm looking for: Who's going to get me there? I ain't looking to get on no sorry team for no money. That ain't going to fly. I ain't gonna put my body through all of that just to lose no 16 games, go home with my check. I'd hate that, so that ain't what I'm doing. So if I can't win no Super Bowl, I ain't going to no team that can't win."

Based on his comments about free agency in January, Clowney isn't just chasing the money. He wants to win games and contend for a title.

Well, the New York Giants are 12-36 over the last three seasons. Big Blue is also headed for another rebuild with new first-year head coach Joe Judge and quarterback Daniel Jones going into his sophomore campaign.

Why would Clowney's camp consider the Giants? As Vacchiano mentions in his report, Gettleman seems fond of the three-time Pro Bowler. He may offer a large chunk of the team's $73.3 million in cap space to bolster a defense that ranked 22nd in sacks and 18th in quarterback hurries in 2019. 

If Clowney publicly flirts with the Giants, who are flush with cash, that could drive up his market price for competing suitors who are closer to contending for a title. It's a shrewd move to start a bidding war, allowing him to choose the best team among those inquiring about his services.

BS Meter: 9

New York Jets Interested in Acquiring LT Trent Williams

Mark Tenally/Associated Press

The New York Jets have major needs across the offensive line, especially at tackle. Kelvin Beachum and Brandon Shell, who made the majority of starts on the left and right side, respectively, will hit the open market. As a rookie, Chuma Edoga opened eight games with the first unit, but he allowed six sacks, per STATs (via the Washington Post).

Edoga has room to grow, but former general manager Mike Maccagnan selected him in the third round last year. His replacement, Joe Douglas, may not be as high on the USC product.

Connor Hughes of The Athletic noted the Jets would pursue Washington Redskins left tackle Trent Williams. He's been granted permission to seek a trade, per ESPN's Dianna Russini.

According to NFL Network's Mike Garafolo, Williams wants a new deal, but that shouldn't scare the Jets away. Douglas will have a projected $56.1 million in cap space to pay the seven-time Pro Bowler in case of a trade.

Although Williams has missed 13 games over the last three seasons because of injury, he's an immediate and much-needed upgrade for a line that must protect quarterback Sam Darnold.

Darnold has thrown for 36 touchdowns and 28 interceptions while completing 59.9 percent of his attempts, but he's also been sacked 63 times in 26 contests. According to Football Outsiders, Gang Green ranked 18th and 30th in pass protection for the 2018 and 2019 seasons, respectively. 

If Douglas wants to build around Darnold, he should inquire about Williams. Before sitting out 2019 with a cancerous tumor on his scalp, he allowed fewer than three sacks in every campaign between 2015 and 2018, per STATs.

BS Meter: 1

New York Jets Making Effort to Re-Sign WR Robby Anderson

Steve Luciano/Associated Press

Is Robby Anderson's camp feeling the pressure from a draft class that's loaded with quality wide receiver talent? If so, this rumor comes at an opportune time shortly before free agency.

ESPN's Todd McShay slotted seven wideouts in the first round of his latest mock draft. Following the combine, Bleacher Report's Matt Miller projected 11 receivers to go in the top 64. NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah says it's "the deepest class" he's seen at the position.

If teams prefer to address wide receiver needs early in the draft, Anderson may not land a contract in his desired range. According to Manish Mehta of the New York Daily News, the four-year veteran said it "doesn't make sense" to give the Jets a market discount. 

Gang Green and Anderson were approximately $3-5 million (annually) apart in contract expectations, per The Athletic's Connor Hughes.

"The Jets would love to retain him on a deal similar to the one signed by Miami's DeVante Parker (4 years, $40 million)," Hughes wrote. "That's just not going to happen. Multiple league sources believe Anderson will receive a contract worth an average anywhere from $13 to $15 million annually. That's a price the Jets just won't go to." 

Yet, ESPN's Jeremy Fowler reported the Jets are "making efforts" to re-sign Anderson, which means one party caved on its number or the wide receiver's camp intended to stir up interest less than two weeks before he hits free agency. The latter seems more believable. 

With a talented group of incoming wide receivers, why would the Jets need to make an effort to satisfy Anderson's demands all of a sudden? The 26-year-old has a 54.2 percent career catch rate and no 1,000-yard seasons. Douglas could match that level of production or find an upgrade with one of his four top-79 picks in April. 

Anderson's representatives may have jumped out to a head start in their client's push for top-15 (annually) wide receiver money. Based on Fowler's report, it would seem the Jets are a viable bidder leading into free agency—well played. 

BS Meter: 8

San Francisco 49ers Have Real Interest in QB Tom Brady

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Tom Brady will likely go down as the most sought-after 43-year-old quarterback in NFL history. Although he has six rings and four Super Bowl MVPs, we can't ignore the evolution of his position with players like Carson Wentz, Deshaun Watson, Patrick Mahomes and Lamar Jackson all playing at a high level with great mobility under center. Also, age plays a huge factor.

Yet, the San Francisco 49ers would be interested in swapping out 28-year-old Jimmy Garoppolo, who helped them reach Super Bowl LIV, for Brady, per Tom E. Curran of NBC Sports Boston on Mad Dog Sports Radio.

Curran thinks the New England Patriots and Tennessee Titans have the best chance to sign Brady but says the 49ers would be "closing hard on the outside."

NFL Network's Ian Rapoport said the Brady-49ers rumor gained traction in gossip circles, but he couldn't substantiate the interest from San Francisco.  

The 49ers haven't outright denied any interest in Brady, which keeps the rumor alive, but some teams choose not to take a definite stance with the idea that anything could happen. 

While it sounds like an incredible story—San Francisco acquiring Garoppolo only to replace him with Brady, who started over the six-year veteran for three seasons in New England—it doesn't make sense. The 49ers don't have a strong reason to make a shortsighted wholesale change for a Super Bowl-contending roster. 

If not for Garoppolo's overthrown pass to wideout Emmanuel Sanders, the 49ers may have won the Super Bowl after 20-10 going into the fourth quarter. One can argue Brady would've completed that play, but we can't just forget the other 18 games. 

Garoppolo isn't a viable ball-carrier, but he can move in the pocket to evade pressure. He is efficient, throwing for 27 touchdowns and 13 interceptions with a 69.1 percent completion rate and showed a command of head coach Kyle Shanahan's scheme, which uses a lot of pre-snap movement.

The 49ers have a title-contending squad and an ascending quarterback. They're one of the teams that needs Brady the least.

BS Meter: 9

Tampa Bay Buccaneers "Hot On" QB Teddy Bridgewater

Butch Dill/Associated Press

Here's a quick note on how rumors start. It only takes one prominent figure to share what they've heard through the grapevine. 

According to one unnamed general manager, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers hold quarterback Teddy Bridgewater in high regard, per The Athletic's Mike Sando.

"I am hearing Tampa Bay is hot on Bridgewater," said the front-office executive.

While it's true the Buccaneers will explore quarterback options on the open market, per ESPN's Jenna Laine, the operative words are "hot on."

In recent years, Arians has run an aggressive passing attack, pushing the ball downfield in chunks—that's not Bridgewater's style. 

In 2019, Bridgewater averaged 6.2 intended air yards per target, which means the distance a ball travels on passes regardless of whether it's completed. That number would rank last among quarterbacks with at least eight starts. To provide further perspective, Jameis Winston ranked second (10.4) in the category.

While starting for the Minnesota Vikings between the 2014 and 2015 campaigns, Bridgewater showcased a more conservative than aggressive arm. He only threw for 14 touchdowns with fewer than 3,232 yards in each of those campaigns. 

At 27 years old, Bridgewater can expand his game and display more of his arm talent. He would likely have to take more chances in Arians' offense, which has featured the likes of Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer, Andrew Luck and Winston, who all used their arms to find targets downfield. 

The Buccaneers may see some upside with Bridgewater, but the emphasis on their interest in him may be a bit exaggerated, especially with Ryan Tannehill, Philip Rivers and even Winston as potential options on the open market. 

BS Meter: 7