Potential MLB Trade Steals Who Can Swing 2020 Playoff Races
Opening Day hasn't even arrived yet, so it's obviously a tad soon to be talking about potential trade steals for the 2020 Major League Baseball season.
But in the interest of the kind of what-the-heckery that's appropriate for this juncture of spring training, we went there anyway.
Ahead is a list of 10 players who could become low-risk, high-reward trade targets for contenders during the 2020 season. They play for teams that will be likely or at least possible sellers, and they just might be undervalued if they do make their way to the market.
We'll begin with five hitters and end with five pitchers.
Jay Bruce, LF/1B, Philadelphia Phillies
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Yes, that Jay Bruce. As in the same Jay Bruce who's going to make $14 million just to come off the Philadelphia Phillies bench in 2020.
There's also the possibility that the Phillies won't be selling this season. As evidenced by their star-studded roster and their $172.1 million payroll, they're clearly set on winning the National League East.
But if the projections at Baseball Prospectus and FanGraphs are any indication, there's a chance the Phillies will play an also-ran role behind the Atlanta Braves, Washington Nationals and New York Mets. If it comes to that, they might look to cut their losses ahead of the July 31 trade deadline.
Bruce, who turns 33 on April 3, would be an obvious trade chip in that scenario. He's only signed through this season, and all but $1.8 million of his salary is on the Seattle Mariners. And while he's no star anymore, he's been an above-average hitter (108 OPS+) with good power (104 home runs) since 2016.
Jason Castro, C, Los Angeles Angels
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The Los Angeles Angels didn't sign Jason Castro to a $6.9 million contract just so they could trade him later. They want to at least avoid another 90-loss season and even contend this season.
Yet the odds of that aren't great. After combining for 204 wins in 2019, the Houston Astros and Oakland Athletics are still the powers that be in the American League West. Likewise, the Angels are also looking at a narrow path to a wild-card berth.
If the Angels do fall out of the race, Castro will be expendable by way of his looming free agency. And while the 32-year-old is only a part-time player, he nonetheless offers two marketable talents.
One is an ability to hit right-handers, whom he clubbed to the tune of an .851 OPS and all 13 of his home runs in 2019. The other is a knack for framing that always has been and still is above-average.
Tommy La Stella, 2B, Los Angeles Angels
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Tommy La Stella is yet another free agent-to-be who could hit the trading block if the Angels can't keep up.
Before he arrived in Anaheim via trade in November 2018, La Stella had languished for four years as a part-time player for the Chicago Cubs. The Cubs barely bothered with him in '18, as he started only 24 of the 123 games he played.
La Stella's debut season with the Angels was cut short by a broken leg but not before he blossomed into an All-Star with an .848 OPS and 16 homers in the first half. The 31-year-old struck out in only 8.7 percent of his plate appearances with a career-best hard-hit rate to boot.
Even if La Stella carries that over, he might still slip into the shadows of Mike Trout, Anthony Rendon, Shohei Ohtani and Justin Upton. That could allow a contender to make an opportunistic play on his bat, not to mention his versatile glove.
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Justin Smoak, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers
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Though Logan Morrison is all the rage right now, he's not the first baseman whom the Milwaukee Brewers signed to a major league contract this offseason.
That would be Justin Smoak, who inked a one-year, $5 million deal with a club option for 2021. It was your basic upside play, and the Brewers indeed aren't foolish to think Smoak can do better than the .748 OPS and 22 homers he produced in 2019.
The 33-year-old put up an .847 OPS and 63 long balls across 2017 and 2018, and he didn't regress as much in 2019 as his results indicated. Per his .366 xwOBAโwhich is based on strikeouts, walks and contact qualityโSmoak's true quality in '19 was right between his '17 and '18 self.
If the Brewers can't keep pace with the Cubs, Cincinnati Reds or St. Louis Cardinals in the National League Central, Smoak could draw interest as an impact middle-of-the-order hitter.
C.J. Cron, 1B, Detroit Tigers
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Speaking of middle-of-the-order hitters who could interest contenders this season, there's also C.J. Cron.
Cron, 30, broke in with the Angels in 2014 and peaked in 2018 when he set career-highs with 140 games, an .816 OPS and 30 home runs for the Tampa Bay Rays. Yet he was non-tendered anyway, and he didn't quite replicate his breakout with the Minnesota Twins in 2019.
Or did he? Though Cron slipped to a .780 OPS and 25 homers in 125 games, he notably lowered his strikeout rate and actually clobbered the ball better than he did in 2018. To wit, his .366 xwOBA was on par with Smoak's.
Cron is now with the Detroit Tigers on a $6.1 million contract. Given that the Tigers are coming off a 114-loss season, he almost certainly won't still be with them at the end of 2020. It's just a question of which contender will like him most as a difference-maker for the stretch run.
Yimi Garcia, RHP, Miami Marlins
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The Los Angeles Dodgers had some issues with their bullpen in 2019, but that didn't stop them from cutting loose Yimi Garcia via a non-tender in December.
That may have had something to do with the 29-year-old's home run problem. Garcia served up 15 long balls, and that was in only 62.1 innings.
Just from looking at Garcia's peripheral stats, however, it's a wonder how anyone ever hit him. He sat at 94.2 mph with his fastball and was significantly better than average with his spin rate and contact quality. Overall, his .257 xwOBA was better than even Taylor Rogers' and Nick Anderson's.
Though Garcia is now with the Miami Marlins on a one-year contract, they control him through 2021. Because they're not contending any time soon, they may be all too willing to cash in his value if his results level out in 2020.
Nick Goody, RHP, Texas Rangers
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Though it wasn't the biggest transaction between the Texas Rangers and Cleveland Indians in the offseason, it is best not to overlook the Rangers' claim of Nick Goody off waivers in November.
Goody, 28, has spent five seasons in the majors with the Indians and New York Yankees. His results have been all over the place, and even the solid 3.54 ERA he posted in 2019 clearly wasn't enough to convince Cleveland to put up a wall around him.
Yet Goody's superb .253 xwOBA suggests he found something in 2019. To this end, he upped his fastball velocity to 92.7 mph and picked up more movement on his slider. He whiffed 11.1 batters per nine innings and lowered his average exit velocity to just 85.3 mph.
Like the Angels, the Texas Rangers will begin 2020 with their sights on the AL West throne. But if they also fall behind, they might seek and find takers for Goody and his three years of club control.
Martin Perez, LHP, Boston Red Sox
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Ostensibly speaking, the Boston Red Sox are still contenders. But with Mookie Betts and David Price gone and Chris Sale dealing with another elbow injury, that may not be the case for long.
The Red Sox may therefore be destined to sell on the trade market. Jackie Bradley Jr. and Brandon Workman figure to draw the most interest, yet Boston could also get a few calls about Martin Perez.
Perez, who turns 29 on April 4, is with the Red Sox on a one-year, $6 million contract that also has a $6.3 million club option for 2021. Those aren't big numbers, yet they're still arguably too much for a pitcher with a 5.49 ERA to his name since 2018.
Yet Perez is at least throwing harder now than he did earlier in his career, and he actually allowed the lowest xwOBA of any pitcher who had at least 400 balls in play last season. Any contender with a good defense might reason that Perez could do wonders on their side.
Anthony DeSclafani, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
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After loading up with Mike Moustakas, Nick Castellanos, Shogo Akiyama and others in the offseason, the Reds are arguably the team to beat in the NL Central.
Even still, "arguably" is very much the operative word. The Cubs, Cardinals and Brewers are contenders in their own right, and the Reds' chances of overcoming them aren't exactly clad in iron.
It's doubtful the Reds would blow things up if they fell out of the race, but they would probably look to move their pending free agents. Though Trevor Bauer has the biggest name among that bunch, Anthony DeSclafani could attract more suitors.
For one thing, his $6 million salary is about a third of what Bauer is making in 2020. For another, DeSclafani is coming off a velocity spike and a solid 3.89 ERA in 2019. He's no ace, but he would be a safe bet to aid a contender's rotation for the stretch run and October.
Jon Gray, RHP, Colorado Rockies
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As Joel Sherman of the New York Post put it, it's inevitable that the Colorado Rockies will trade Nolan Arenado.
Of course, nobody is going to steal Arenado. Not while he has five All-Star nods, seven Gold Gloves and a $260 million contract, anyway. So if a contender is looking to "win" a trade with the Rockies, it would be better off targeting Jon Gray.
In part thanks to injuries, the 28-year-old has never lived up to being the No. 3 pick in the 2013 draft. But he's teased his potential with sub-4.00 ERAs in 2017 and 2019, and the sheer electricity in his right arm is reflected in his elite fastball velocity and nasty slider.
Fully unlocking Gray may be as simple as getting him out of Denver or perhaps making subtle tweaks to his arsenal. In either case, a team would have through the end of the 2021 season to experiment.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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