Ranking 2019 Non-Playoff Teams Most Likely to Reach 2020 MLB Postseason
Spring training is in full swing, and for all 30 teams around the MLB landscape, hope and optimism are in abundant supply.
For the 20 teams that missed the playoffs a year ago, it's been a long, cold offseason since the 2019 regular season came to a close.
Many of those teams are still in the process of rebuilding, with contention unlikely once again during the upcoming campaign. However, for others, the clear goal is to reverse recent trends and reach the postseason in 2020.
Ahead, we have ranked the 10 non-playoff teams from a year ago with the best chance of making the playoffs this season. Teams are ordered based on the completeness of their rosters and how it impacts their outlook for 2020, as well as their standing in their respective division races.
Let's get to it.
The Other 20 Teams
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Last Year's Playoff Teams
Among the 10 teams that reached the playoffs last year, the New York Yankees, Houston Astros, Atlanta Braves and Los Angeles Dodgers all look like safe bets to be playing in October once again in 2020.
The Minnesota Twins remain the team to beat in an improving AL Central, while the Tampa Bay Rays and Oakland Athletics remain in the conversation despite small-market limitations.
The NL Central will be wide-open once again, with the St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers more than capable of punching their tickets to the playoffs for the second straight year.
The biggest question mark among last year's playoff teams might be the defending champion Washington Nationals after they lost Anthony Rendon in free agency. The pitching staff is still loaded, but the NL East is loaded, and they sneaked into the playoffs a year ago with a wild-card berth.
The Non-Contenders
A handful of teams are clear non-contenders heading into 2020.
The Baltimore Orioles, Detroit Tigers, Miami Marlins, Kansas City Royals and Pittsburgh Pirates are all rebuilding and will likely be jockeying for the No. 1 overall pick in the 2021 draft as the season comes to a close.
The Colorado Rockies, San Francisco Giants and Seattle Mariners also belong in the also-ran category, though they are not as far removed from relevance and not quite all-in on the idea of rebuilding yet.
That leaves the Toronto Blue Jays and the Arizona Diamondbacks, the two toughest omissions from our list.
The Blue Jays improved significantly on the pitching side of things with the additions of Hyun-Jin Ryu, Tanner Roark, Chase Anderson and Shun Yamaguchi, and top prospect Nate Pearson will debut at some point in 2020.
The D-backs made a surprise late push last year to finish with 85 wins, and they have some good young talent in place at the MLB level, with plenty more on the way from an improved farm system.
Consider the D-backs the No. 11 team and the Blue Jays No. 12 in the following rankings.
10. Los Angeles Angels
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The Los Angeles Angels have reached the postseason just once since Mike Trout burst onto the scene to win AL Rookie of the Year honors in 2012.
They have spent the past four seasons hovering around the .500 mark while ultimately failing to finish with a winning record each year, including a 72-90 showing last season that left them a distant fourth in the AL West standings.
The decision to ink Trout to a massive 12-year, $426.5 million extension last March showed the team is committed to contending with a roster built around the game's best player.
He can't do it alone, though.
The splashy addition of Anthony Rendon gives Trout the best lineup support of his career, and rising prospect Jo Adell has a chance to quickly develop into a five-tool star, so this team should have no trouble scoring runs.
It's preventing runs that may be an issue.
After finishing 25th in the majors with a 5.12 ERA last year, the Angels whiffed in their pursuit of Gerrit Cole and wound up settling for Dylan Bundy and Julio Teheran as the biggest additions to a flawed staff.
The Angels have improved, but they still might not be good enough to chase down an AL wild-card berth.
9. Texas Rangers
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With the additions of Corey Kluber, Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles to the starting rotation, the Texas Rangers have effectively stabilized the starting rotation behind the impressive one-two punch of Lance Lynn and Mike Minor.
The other three spots on the starting staff were a revolving door last year, and that was a big reason why the team finished 78-84, the third straight season that the Rangers failed to post a winning record.
Kluber is coming off an injury-plagued season, Gibson saw his numbers regress significantly after a career year in 2018, and Lyles has a limited track record of success. Still, this group offers considerably more reason for optimism than the parade of unproven youngsters the team trotted out last year.
Offensively, a full season from Joey Gallo would go a long way after injuries limited him to 70 games in 2019. He'll be asked to do a lot of the heavy lifting once again, along with newcomer Todd Frazier who was signed to a reasonable one-year, $5 million contract to plug a hole at third base.
If the rotation pitches to its potential, the pieces fall into place on the relief corps, and young guys like Willie Calhoun and Nick Solak take a step forward, this is a team that could really surprise some people.
However, that's a fairly lengthy list of "ifs" for a team hoping to climb into a tight AL postseason picture.
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8. San Diego Padres
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With a growing core of impact players at the MLB level that includes Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Chris Paddack, Francisco Mejia, Dinelson Lamet, Joey Lucchesi and others, the San Diego Padres are a team on the rise.
More young impact talent is climbing the minor league ranks, led by left-hander MacKenzie Gore, who has future ace potential after dominating hitters to the tune of a 1.69 ERA and 0.83 WHIP with 135 strikeouts in 101 innings between High-A and Double-A last year.
If the young starting rotation can handle the grind of a full season, there is enough talent on the roster for this team to take a significant step forward in 2020.
That's far from a given, though, after the Padres shuffled through 16 different starters last season, and the failure to find an established veteran starter to anchor the rotation could really come back to haunt them in 2020.
Still, while they may be a few years away from chasing down the Los Angeles Dodgers for NL West supremacy, their first winning season since 2010 is within reach.
7. Cincinnati Reds
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On paper, the Cincinnati Reds might have the best starting rotation in the NL Central division.
A full season of deadline pickup Trevor Bauer and newcomer Wade Miley alongside the established trio of Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray and Anthony DeSclafani has a chance to be great, while young guys like Tyler Mahle and prospect Tony Santillan provide quality depth.
The offense will also have more firepower after Mike Moustakas and Nick Castellanos were added in free agency, along with center fielder and potential table-setter Shogo Akiyama, who hit .303/.392/.471 with 112 runs scored in Japan last year.
The front office has made it clear since the start of the offseason that the goal is to reach the postseason in 2020, and it's taken significant strides toward achieving that goal this winter.
That said, the Reds still face an uphill battle trying to improve on last year's 75-87 record while staring down a six-year run of losing seasons that dates back to their most recent postseason berth.
This is a vastly improved Reds team, but the NL Central is a tough division, and it still has a lot to prove before it can be considered a legitimate contender.
6. Chicago White Sox
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It was a busy offseason for the Chicago White Sox.
Here's a look at the notable outside additions:
- C Yasmani Grandal
- SP Dallas Keuchel
- DH Edwin Encarnacion
- SP Gio Gonzalez
- RF Nomar Mazara
- RP Steve Cishek
Add to that the impending arrival of top prospect Luis Robert (signed a six-year, $50 million extension in January), the eventual debuts of recent first-round picks Nick Madrigal (2018) and Andrew Vaughn (2019), along with a healthy Michael Kopech, and there are some intriguing in-house reinforcements as well.
A stacked lineup should have no trouble scoring runs, so this team's ability to contend may be tied to the performance of the starting rotation.
Lucas Giolito needs to avoid regression after a breakout season, Reynaldo Lopez and Dylan Cease need to take another step forward, and veterans Dallas Keuchel and Gio Gonzalez need to eat up innings.
The bullpen is also a question mark, though the organization has plenty of quality arms to mix and match.
The White Sox lost 89 games last year, so it will take something in the neighborhood of a 20-win improvement to reach the postseason. That's a significant spike, even for all the talent they added, but they are certainly a team to watch.
5. Boston Red Sox
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Can the Boston Red Sox actually improve on last year's finish after trading Mookie Betts and David Price?
A year after winning a franchise record 108 games and a World Series title, the Red Sox fell to 84-78 and finished 19 games back in the AL East standings.
Chris Sale and Eduardo Rodriguez will once again be tasked with leading the starting rotation, while a bounce-back season from Nathan Eovaldi and a strong performance from free-agent signing Martin Perez would go a long way.
Meanwhile, a relief corps that was in flux for much of the 2019 season went largely unaddressed, so it will again be up to the likes of Brandon Workman, Matt Barnes and Heath Hembree to close out games.
The loss of Betts will hurt, but the offensive core of J.D. Martinez, Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers, Andrew Benintendi and newcomer Alex Verdugo is still capable of doing plenty of damage.
The New York Yankees and Tampa Bay Rays both look like the real deal, so contending in the AL East is far from a given, but this Red Sox team is better than last year's record might indicate.
4. Chicago Cubs
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The Chicago Cubs are banking on improved performance from their in-house talent to drive their push back toward the postseason in 2020.
The offseason began with a changing of the guard as the front office parted ways with manager Joe Maddon at the end of his contract and brought in former backup catcher and clubhouse leader David Ross to steer the ship.
However, the roster shakeup many were expecting never came, and now they enter the season with only a few minor changes to a group that went 84-78 and missed the playoffs for the first time since 2014.
Amid a flurry of trade rumors, homegrown stars Kris Bryant, Javier Baez, Willson Contreras and Kyle Schwarber all return, alongside first baseman Anthony Rizzo, to form what should again be a potent offense.
The biggest question at first glance seems to be whether Tyler Chatwood can handle a full-time move back into the starting rotation following the departure of Cole Hamels in free agency. After a disastrous debut with the Cubs in 2018 (5.30 ERA, 1.80 WHIP), he had a solid 3.76 ERA in 76.2 innings spanning five starts and 33 relief appearances.
The patchwork bullpen is also a potential cause for concern, with newcomers Jeremy Jeffress, Casey Sadler, Ryan Tepera and Dan Winkler tasked with shoring up the relief corps.
There's still a ton of talent on the Cubs roster, and a new voice in the clubhouse could be just what they need to reignite the fire that seemed to be missing last year.
3. New York Mets
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With a full season of Marcus Stroman alongside Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard at the top of the starting rotation, and some combination of Steven Matz and free-agent signings Rick Porcello and Michael Wacha rounding out the staff, the New York Mets have one of the best rotations in baseball.
Will that be enough for them to improve on an 86-76 season that left them third in the ultra-competitive NL East division?
No significant additions were made to an offense that ranked in the middle of the pack with 4.88 runs per game, leaving the team susceptible to a fall-off in that department if Pete Alonso and Jeff McNeil experience any significant regression.
Still, as long as the starting rotation stays healthy, this team should be right in the thick of it.
The Atlanta Braves still look like the team to beat in the NL East, the defending World Series champion Washington Nationals are not going away despite losing Anthony Rendon, and the Philadelphia Phillies enter the year with considerable expectations once again.
The Mets could be right there with those three teams come September.
2. Cleveland Indians
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Even after trading two-time Cy Young winner Corey Kluber on the heels of an injury-plagued campaign, the Cleveland Indians still have a strong rotation capable of carrying them to a postseason berth.
Here's a look at how the starting staff stacks up this coming season, along with ZiPS projections:
- Shane Bieber: 195.7 IP, 3.63 ERA, 213 K, 5.2 WAR
- Mike Clevinger: 146.7 IP, 3.62 ERA, 175 K, 3.5 WAR
- Carlos Carrasco: 131.3 IP, 3.97 ERA, 152 K, 2.5 WAR
- Zach Plesac: 159.3 IP, 4.58 ERA, 131 K, 2.0 WAR
- Aaron Civale: 123.7 IP, 4.80 ERA, 96 K, 1.4 WAR
Steady performer Cesar Hernandez takes over at second base, and slugging outfielder Domingo Santana gives the lineup a welcome power bat as the team's two biggest free-agent acquisitions.
The core of Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez and Carlos Santana remains capable of steering the ship offensively, and while there are still some questions about the outfield alignment, overall, the roster is without any glaring holes.
Despite missing the playoffs last year on the heels of three straight AL Central titles, the Indians still won 93 games, and they should be right in the thick of the division race once again in 2020.
1. Philadelphia Phillies
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The Philadelphia Phillies entered last year with lofty expectations after a busy offseason headlined by the additions of Bryce Harper, J.T. Realmuto, Andrew McCutchen and Jean Segura.
However, the starting rotation went unaddressed and wound up being a significant weakness, finishing 17th in the majors with a 4.64 starters' ERA.
Rectifying that situation was priority No. 1 this offseason, and they did it by signing Zack Wheeler to a five-year, $118 million contract.
Manager Joe Girardi told reporters he has high hopes for Wheeler in 2020:
"Well, I think you're going to have a 1 and a 1A with him and [Aaron] Nola. When you look at what he's done the last few years and really throughout his career, he's continued to get better and better. This is a power guy with four pitches where I think he's just starting to reach his potential. I think there is more in the tank there. I think this guy can be more dominant than he's been, and we're looking forward to seeing the top of our rotation."
With Wheeler set to fill the No. 2 spot in the starting rotation, and top pitching prospect Spencer Howard expected to debut at some point, the pitching staff could vastly improve.
The lineup will also get an internal boost from slugger Alec Bohm, who could take over as the everyday third baseman in short order after Maikel Franco was non-tendered.
Top to bottom, the Phillies look like the most talented team out of the 20 clubs that missed the playoffs a year ago. The NL East is an uphill battle, but they have the horses to pull it off.
All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted.
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