2020 NFL Mock Draft: Predictions for Round 1's Biggest Boom-or-Bust Prospects

For as much time and effort as NFL teams put in the draft, one would think the process would be almost scientific. It isn't, though, and is much more akin to a crapshoot than a laboratory experiment.

While teams can identify positive traits, potential red flags and just about everything in between, there is no such thing as a can't-miss prospect.

On top of this, teams often do miss because they are drawn by the allure of a boom-or-bust player. Guys with elite physical traits or otherworldly production can cause teams to overlook warning signs and pull the trigger on a risky prospect.

Sometimes those risks pay off—remember when Patrick Mahomes was viewed as an unpolished developmental prospect?—and sometimes they don't. One thing never fails to change, though: Teams continue betting on boom-or-bust prospects.

Mock Draft

1. Cincinnati Bengals: Joe Burrow, QB, LSU

2. Washington Redskins: Chase Young, Edge, Ohio State

3. Detroit Lions: Isaiah Simmons, OLB, Clemson

4. New York Giants: Jedrick Wills Jr., OT, Alabama 

5. Miami Dolphins: Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama

6. Los Angeles Chargers: Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon

7. Carolina Panthers: Jeff Okudah, CB, Ohio State

8. Arizona Cardinals: CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma

9. Jacksonville Jaguars: Derrick Brown, DT, Auburn

10. Cleveland Browns: Mekhi Becton, OT, Louisville 

11. New York Jets: Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama

12. Las Vegas Raiders: Tee Higgins, WR, Clemson

13. Indianapolis Colts: Javon Kinlaw, DL, South Carolina

14. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: A.J. Epenesa, Edge, Iowa

15. Denver Broncos: Andrew Thomas, OT, Georgia

16. Atlanta Falcons: K'Lavon Chaisson, Edge, LSU

17. Dallas Cowboys: Xavier McKinney, S, Alabama

18. Miami Dolphins (from Pittsburgh): Tristan Wirfs, OT, Iowa

19. Las Vegas Raiders (from Chicago): Zack Baun, Edge, Wisconsin

20. Jacksonville Jaguars (from Rams): Trevon Diggs, CB, Alabama

21. Philadelphia Eagles: CJ Henderson, CB, Florida

22. Buffalo Bills: Henry Ruggs III, WR, Alabama

23. New England Patriots: Laviska Shenault Jr., WR, Colorado

24. New Orleans Saints: Jacob Eason, QB, Washington

25. Minnesota Vikings: Bryce Hall, CB, Virginia

26. Miami Dolphins (from Houston): D'Andre Swift, RB, Georgia

27. Seattle Seahawks: Yetur Gross-Matos, Edge, Penn State

28. Baltimore Ravens: Julian Okwara, DE, Notre Dame

29. Tennessee Titans: Patrick Queen, LB, LSU

30. Green Bay Packers: Kenneth Murray, LB, Oklahoma

31. San Francisco 49ers: Jeff Gladney, CB, TCU

32. Kansas City Chiefs: J.K. Dobbins, RB, Ohio State

Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama

Rogelio V. Solis/Associated Press

There might not be a bigger boom-or-bust candidate in this entire draft class than Alabama signal-caller Tua Tagovailoa.

He has appeared in two national championship games, has won one, and produced a phenomenal 2018 campaign—finishing with 3,966 passing yards, 43 touchdowns and just six interceptions. He also suffered a dislocated and fractured him this past season.

Whether Tagovailoa booms or busts will depend almost entirely on his recovery from said injury. The good news is he received positive medical evaluations at the scouting combine this week.

Teams will undoubtedly want to bring Tagovailoa in for evaluations at their own facilities and with their own physicians. This, along with a pro day he plans to hold on April 9, will be the next significant step in his pre-draft process.

Justin Herbert QB, Oregon

While looking past health concerns and at Tagovailoa's production could be risky, teams would be unwise to look past Justin Herbert's collegiate career.

The Oregon signal-caller, who passes for 3,151 yards 29 touchdowns and eight interceptions in 2019, lacked consistency and rarely took over games during his Ducks career.

Yet, teams could easily overlook this fact and fall in love with the 21-year-old's physical toolbox. He ran an unofficial 4.69-second 40-yard dash on Thursday night and wowed onlookers with his arm talent.

According to one former NFL player, this could cause a team to overestimate Herbert's NFL-readiness.

"He could potentially be one of the biggest mistakes of the draft. Because you overdraft him, which means you have to play him immediately," former NFL linebacker Emmanuel Acho said on ESPN's Get Up. "Justin Herbert, even in his quotes, these are not my words, this is what Justin Herbert said yesterday at the combine: 'I don't know if I'm ready to play right away.'"

Herbert has the physical upside to be a star but also the potential to be an early bust.

Henry Ruggs III, WR, Alabama

NFL teams gamble on speed all the time. It's the reason why the Cincinnati Bengals drafted former Washington receiver John Ross with the ninth pick in the 2017 draft.

The Bengals were drafting his combine record 4.22-second 40-yard dash more than the player who had one lone season of high-end production.

So far, Ross has barely put together a year's worth of production—716 yards, 10 touchdowns—in his three pro seasons.

The need for speed is precisely why some team is going to draft Alabama wide receiver Henry Ruggs III high in Round 1. The 21-year-old didn't break Ross' record, but he did produce a 40-yard time that should have offensive coordinators salivating.

The problem is his production doesn't quite match his jets. He failed to reach 750 in any of his collegiate seasons. Yes, he was in the same receiving corps with Jerry Jeudy and DeVonta Smith, but the fastest guy on the field should average more than 62 yards per game—which is what Ruggs averaged in 2019.

Will Ruggs be the next Ross or the next Tyreek Hill? That obviously remains undecided. It's a legitimate question, though, and it could make him the biggest boom-or-bust receiver in Round 1.