2020 MLB Playoff Odds for Every Team 1 Month from Opening Day

Major League Baseball's offseason has gone from a thing that is happening to a thing that has happened. With Opening Day just a month away, it's time to get serious about the 2020 season.

So let's predict each team's chances of making the playoffs.

To do this, we considered how much star power and depth clubs are packing, as well as the competition they'll face. To a lesser extent, potential injury complications also swayed our projections.

We'll go division by division, starting in the American League East and ending in the National League West.

American League East

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New York Yankees: 3-17 (85%)

2020 isn't treating the New York Yankees much better on the injury front than last year did. Luis Severino needs Tommy John surgery, while fellow ace James Paxton is recovering from back surgery. Aaron Judge should be OK, but it's disconcerting that his shoulder is already sore.

Yet these Yankees are still a healthier version of the team that blasted 306 home runs and won 103 games in 2019. And this time, they have Gerrit Cole to help carry their rotation through hard times. Ultimately, much more will need to go wrong for them to miss the postseason entirely.

Tampa Bay Rays: 2-3 (60%)

The Tampa Bay Rays will have a path to the top of the AL East if the Yankees' injuries continue to mount, but for now it's hard to make the case that the Rays are the better team. If nothing else, there's a significant gap between the clubs with regard to offensive upside.

But like it was last season, Tampa Bay's offense should be above-average. The Rays also figure to be a run-prevention powerhouse, particularly if Blake Snell and Tyler Glasnow stay healthy and effective. So even if they can't win the division, they should contend for the AL's top wild-card spot.

Boston Red Sox: 3-1 (25%)

If the Boston Red Sox still had Mookie Betts and David Price, their lineup and rotation could have elite potential. That potential is not so apparent after their departure, and the Red Sox look like an 85-win team.

That would, however, put them in range of a wild-card berth. And who knows? If J.D. Martinez, Chris Sale and Nathan Eovaldi bounce back while Xander Bogaerts, Rafael Devers and Eduardo Rodriguez build on their outstanding 2019s, the Red Sox might have a narrow path to the AL East crown.

Toronto Blue Jays: 9-1 (10%)

The Toronto Blue Jays have the look of an underdog. Sure, they lost 95 games last year. But a whole bunch of talented young hitters got major league experience, and their pitching staff has since been upgraded with Hyun-Jin Ryu, Tanner Roark and Chase Anderson.

But while it's possible the Blue Jays will arrive ahead of schedule, a la the 2018 Atlanta Braves, that scenario needs a great many things to go right. Chief among them is their pitching staff's ability to avoid busting, which extends to Ryu.

Baltimore Orioles: 1,000-1 (0.1%)

Well, maybe if 2013 Chris Davis shows up and the Baltimore Orioles can come up with five clones of 1973-1976 Jim Palmer for their rotation. Then and only then will they have a shot in 2020.

Barring those eventualities, it's looking like a third straight 100-loss season for the Orioles.

American League Central

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Minnesota Twins: 1-9 (90%)

The Minnesota Twins out-homered even the Yankees last season, and they added another star slugger in Josh Donaldson. They also added a bunch of depth to their pitching staff. Factor in how they play in the American League's weakest division, and they're sitting pretty.

The only way the Twins will be in trouble is if Donaldson, Nelson Cruz and Byron Buxton succumb to age or injury concerns and if the Cleveland Indians or Chicago White Sox are better than expected. Otherwise, it's hard to fathom they'll miss the playoffs.

Cleveland Indians: 7-3 (30%)

The Cleveland Indians have spent much of the last two years stripping away stars while adding few in exchange. That's put them in a position where they're lacking in depth on both sides of the ball, and that's even assuming aces Mike Clevinger (knee) and Carlos Carrasco (hip) are healthy for most of 2020.

But if that scenario does pan out, then Clevinger and Carrasco will team up with Shane Bieber to form an elite rotation trio. Likewise, Francisco Lindor, Jose Ramirez, Carlos Santana and Franmil Reyes should make for a solid offensive core. These things could guide Cleveland to at least a wild-card spot.

Chicago White Sox: 3-1 (25%)

It's hard to choose between the Indians and Chicago White Sox. But despite all their additions, the White Sox seemingly have more downside by way of having fewer stars who are in the primes of their careers. A few have been there and several others aren't yet there.

The White Sox will, however, have tremendous upside if certain youngsters—e.g., Eloy Jimenez, Luis Robert, Nick Madrigal, Reynaldo Lopez, Dylan Cease and Michael Kopech—discover their prime form in 2020. With those questions answered, the White Sox could mount a run at 90 or even 95 wins.

Detroit Tigers: 1000-1 (0.1%)

By the end of 2020, the Detroit Tigers could have a rotation of Matthew Boyd, Spencer Turnbull, Casey Mize, Matt Manning and maybe even Tarik Skubal. In other words: Two solid starters and three of baseball's top pitching prospects.

But barring any miracle fixes for what was MLB's worst offense in 2019, the Tigers will probably rack up 100 losses anyway.

Kansas City Royals: 1,000-1 (0.1%)

The Kansas City Royals might look interesting if they had traded Eric Hosmer, Mike Moustakas and Lorenzo Cain while they had the chance in 2017.

But they didn't, and they're anything but interesting. Jorge Soler will provide rooting interest if he carries over last year's 48-homer outburst, but the Royals are otherwise too short on offense and pitching to surprise anyone.

American League West

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Houston Astros: 3-17 (85%)

OK, so everyone hates the Houston Astros. But as far as their postseason chances are concerned, it matters more that they didn't fill the holes in their rotation left by Gerrit Cole and Wade Miley while the rest of the AL West built up around them.

Yet the Astros still have all the key members of last year's league-best offense, and any pitching staff headlined by Justin Verlander and Zack Greinke deserves respect. Even in a worst-case scenario, the Astros are probably a wild-card team.

Oakland Athletics: 9-11 (55%)

If anyone is going to take down the Astros, it will probably be the Oakland Athletics. They've won 97 games in back-to-back seasons, and it's hard to find fault with the roster they're taking into 2020. It'll only look better if Khris Davis recovers from his brutal 2019.

So far as we can tell, Oakland's only real pitfalls are the increased depth of the division and the inexperience of key youngsters like catcher Sean Murphy, 25, and left-hander Jesus Luzardo, 22. Otherwise, the A's are right there with the Rays in terms of being runaway wild-card favorites.

Los Angeles Angels: 4-1 (20%)

In recent years, the Los Angeles Angels offense has consisted of Mike Trout and a handful of very nice yet not as effective people. Well, it gained Anthony Rendon and healthy versions of Justin Upton, Tommy La Stella and Shohei Ohtani. Plus top prospect Jo Adell, who'll likely debut this year.

The trouble is, the Angels are banking on unknowns Dylan Bundy and Julio Teheran to improve what was the AL's worst pitching staff in 2019. If that gambit pays off, they'll likely find themselves in a difficult fight for the American League's second wild-card spot.

Texas Rangers: 17-3 (15%)

The Texas Rangers are the inverse of the Angels, in that their playoff hopes hinge on their pitching. Assuming newcomer Corey Kluber can get over a rough 2019, he, Mike Minor, Lance Lynn, Kyle Gibson and Jordan Lyles should make for a hell of a rotation.

But with his 34th birthday coming April 10, Kluber may be too old to reclaim his prime. If he doesn't live up to his billing, it would only put more pressure on Texas' lineup, which is one Joey Gallo injury away from being in trouble. Like the Angels, these things could leave the Rangers to scrap for the second wild card.

Seattle Mariners: 100-1 (1%)

Remember when the Seattle Mariners got off to a 13-2 start last season? Well, they went 55-92 after that, and their offseason activity extended only to upside plays and reclamation projects.

Still, the Mariners should at least have youthful energy this year. Veteran third baseman Kyle Seager (32 years old) notwithstanding, they have nothing but 20-somethings in their lineup and rotation. There's an outside chance that those players could conjure a Cinderella season.

National League East

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New York Mets: 2-3 (60%)

Picking a favorite out of this year's NL East crop is near impossible, but the New York Mets potentially have all the goods. As in, a star-studded rotation fronted by back-to-back Cy Young Award winner Jacob deGrom, a powerful offense and maybe even a dominant bullpen if Edwin Diaz, Jeurys Familia and Dellin Betances straighten themselves out.

The depth of the NL East will test the Mets, however, and they'll stumble if their relievers struggle again and their position players can't match their offensive firepower with defensive efficiency. Such things may not lead to a bad season, but a disappointing year may well be in the cards.

Atlanta Braves: 9-11 (55%)

What's to stop the Atlanta Braves from repeating or even building on last year's 97-win campaign? Well, there's a Josh Donaldson-sized hole in the middle of their lineup, and their rotation doesn't quite measure up to those of the Mets or Washington Nationals.

The Braves do, however, have more top-to-bottom pitching depth than they did last season. Depth is also the name of the game with their lineup, and they might not even miss Donaldson if Ronald Acuna Jr. fully realizes his enormous potential and Marcell Ozuna lives up to his eye-catching peripherals.

Washington Nationals: 1-1 (50%)

These Nationals look a lot like the team that won the World Series in 2019. They still have Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin in their rotation and Juan Soto and Trea Turner as offensive cogs. As a bonus, their much-maligned bullpen got an upgrade in the person of Will Harris.

Like the Braves, though, the Nats waved goodbye to a heck of a third baseman when Anthony Rendon departed for the Angels. Their lack of a suitable replacement for him could nag them all year, and their problems will only be compounded if a World Series hangover afflicts their arms.

Philadelphia Phillies: 4-1 (20%)

The Philadelphia Phillies were one game over .500 in 2018 and 2019 combined. Though they have a new manager (Joe Girardi), ace (Zack Wheeler) and shortstop (Didi Gregorius), much depends on key incumbents Bryce Harper and Aaron Nola, who have to bounce back a bit in 2020.

The Phillies could win upward of 95 games if this gambit pays off. But out of all their core players, it's alarming that catcher J.T. Realmuto has been the only reliable star in recent seasons. The sheer unreliability of their other 25 guys could steer them right back toward the .500 mark.

Miami Marlins: 19-1 (5%)

Don't write off the Miami Marlins rotation of Caleb Smith, Sandy Alcantara, Jose Urena, Pablo Lopez and Jordan Yamamoto. They could also make a quantum leap offensively if newcomers Corey Dickerson, Jesus Aguilar and Jonathan Villar form a solid core.

Still, expecting the Marlins to go from 105-game losers to a contender is a bit much. Especially in a division like this one.

National League Central

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Cincinnati Reds: 9-11 (55%)

The NL Central is at least as tough to size up as the NL East, but the Cincinnati Reds are to the former what the Mets are to the latter. They're loaded with talented hurlers, and their offseason additions of Mike Moustakas, Nick Castellanos and Shogo Akiyama should lift their offense out of below-average terrain.

But even if all goes well, the Reds offense will probably be more "good" than "great." And that may not be good enough if issues arise with their pitching staff. To that end, Trevor Bauer might stay mired in mediocrity and injuries could expose the depth shortcomings of their rotation or bullpen.

Chicago Cubs: 1-1 (50%)

The Chicago Cubs responded to last year's 84-win flop by swapping out Joe Maddon for David Ross in the manager's chair and...well, that's about it. Newcomers like Steven Souza Jr. and Jason Kipnis might help, but their 2020 fate rests on their holdovers playing better than they did last year.

This venture is risky but not doomed to fail. Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo, Javier Baez, Kyle Schwarber and Willson Contreras make for a darn good offensive core. And if Jon Lester, Jose Quintana and Craig Kimbrel live up to their track records, the Cubs could go eschew wild-card contention for a battle for the NL Central crown.

St. Louis Cardinals: 7-3 (30%)

The St. Louis Cardinals won 91 games and the NL Central title last season on the strength of their arms. Their pitching especially came together in the second half, so it bodes well that Jack Flaherty and other top contributors are back for more this season.

But, boy oh boy, is it hard to be optimistic about the Cardinals offense. It was subpar last season, and now it doesn't even have Marcell Ozuna anymore. Renaissance seasons by Paul Goldschmidt and Matt Carpenter and a star turn by top prospect Dylan Carlson would fix that, but these aren't sure things.

Milwaukee Brewers: 4-1 (20%)

At least the Milwaukee Brewers still have Christian Yelich. He's arguably been baseball's best player since the 2018 All-Star break, and he should be fully recovered from the fractured kneecap that ended his 2019 season early.

However, the cast of characters around Yelich changed dramatically throughout the offseason—in a way that involved swapping name-brand stars for low-priced upside plays such as Justin Smoak, Eric Sogard, Brett Anderson and Josh Lindblom. There's a scenario in which that upside is realized and the Brewers make a third straight postseason, but it's of the long-shot variety.

Pittsburgh Pirates: 19-1 (5%)

The Pittsburgh Pirates might actually have a shot at creeping up on the rest of the NL Central this year. They have interesting arms in both their rotation and their bullpen, and they might even hit a bit if Josh Bell, Bryan Reynolds and Kevin Newman build on their 2019 breakouts.

Then again, this is also a team that lost 93 games last year, and that was with Starling Marte roaming center field. So you really do have to squint to see the Pirates as anything more than an also-ran.

National League West

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Los Angeles Dodgers: 1-19 (95%)

The difference between contenders in the American League and National League right now is one of tiers. In the AL, there are basically three tiers. In the NL, there are only two: the Los Angeles Dodgers and then everyone else.

Though the Dodgers ran out of gas in the first round of the 2019 playoffs, they won 106 games on their way there. And after adding Mookie Betts, David Price and a handful of other players, they now have an ultra-deep roster that's dripping with star power and depth. Throw in that the NL West is the weakest of the National League's three divisions, and the Dodgers are ultimately a shoo-in for October.

Arizona Diamondbacks: 3-1 (25%)

The Arizona Diamondbacks are the NL West's best bet to take down the Dodgers, but they're more than likely looking at settling for a wild-card spot. Even then, they'll have to cut through the crowds coming out of the NL East and NL Central.

Yet lest anyone sell the D-backs too short, they took an 85-win team and upgraded it over the winter by adding Madison Bumgarner, Starling Marte and Kole Calhoun. Though their bullpen depth looks a little shaky, the Snakes are strong enough elsewhere to find themselves at least back in the 85-win range.

San Diego Padres: 4-1 (20%)

The San Diego Padres were surrounded by a fair amount of hype at the outset of 2019, but they eventually found themselves in last place. Their high-priced players—i.e., Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer and Wil Myers—simply didn't perform well, and injuries limited Fernando Tatis Jr.'s breakout to 84 games.

But in 2020, those four in addition to newcomer Tommy Pham could stabilize San Diego's offense. Likewise, newcomer Drew Pomeranz, healthy versions of Garrett Richards and Dinelson Lamet and top prospect MacKenzie Gore could be difference-makers on the mound. The end result might be a major turnaround.

Colorado Rockies: 9-1 (10%)

The Colorado Rockies lost 91 games last year, and they subsequently spent their winter fielding offers for Nolan Arenado while doing very little to improve themselves. Which is to say that, yeah, owner Dick Monfort's 94-win projection for this season is likely bunk.

Yet the Rockies might have a shot at besting .500 and sneaking into the wild-card race. All it would take is for Arenado, Trevor Story and Charlie Blackmon to get more offensive support from David Dahl, Ryan McMahon and Daniel Murphy, and for Kyle Freeland to bounce back and help German Marquez and Jon Gray carry the club's mound staff.

San Francisco Giants: 1,000-1 (0.1%)

Nothing was expected of the San Francisco Giants last season, yet they won a respectable 77 games anyway. In light of these things, is it really fair to count them out for 2020?

Yes. Heck, hard yes. Going from Bruce Bochy to Gabe Kapler is an extreme managerial downgrade, and Kapler doesn't have the luxury of Bumgarner or Will Smith. The Giants offense, meanwhile, is Mike Yastrzemski and then a bunch of 30-somethings whose primes have been over for several years.

Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus.