Forecasting the Biggest Storylines to Emerge During MLB Spring Training 2020
There's no better way to say goodbye to a long, cold and dark winter than by saying hello to Major League Baseball's spring training season.
Now that it's finally here, we'd better discuss some storylines that could grab everyone's attention.
Though all sorts of plots will be afoot during the countdown to Opening Day of the 2020 season on March 26, we've projected 10 that we think could dominate the headlines.
We've split them between five player-specific stories and five team-specific stories. Altogether, they range from trade rumors to up-and-coming prospects to new faces in new places and rising and falling franchises.
Nolan Arenado and Kris Bryant Stay on the Trading Block
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In all likelihood, the massive blockbuster that landed Mookie Betts and David Price with the Los Angeles Dodgers on Sunday will be the last major trade of the 2019-20 offseason.
Unless, of course, the Colorado Rockies or Chicago Cubs have something to say about that.
In Nolan Arenado and Kris Bryant, respectively, both clubs have a superstar third baseman who's been a regular in trade rumors since the hot-stove market opened for business. And now that Betts is spoken for, both players figure to be at the center of attention throughout the spring.
According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, the Washington Nationals and Philadelphia Phillies are already looking at Bryant. Things are quieter on the Arenado front, yet it wasn't that long ago that he was publicly airing his displeasure with the situation in Colorado.
The Cubs, who are coming off an 84-win season, are probably more likely to keep Bryant than the Rockies, who are coming off a 91-loss season, are to keep Arenado. Yet both should anticipate ongoing trade rumors, and the notion that either could be traded this spring is one for the "Stranger Things Have Happened" file.
The Resurgence of Yoenis Cespedes
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You'll want to keep an eye on Corey Kluber, Garrett Richards and Miguel Andujar this spring. All three are going into 2020 in good health after struggling through injuries in 2019.
But for our money, this spring's most intriguing bounceback candidate is Yoenis Cespedes.
Since he signed a four-year, $110 million deal with the New York Mets in November 2016, a handful of serious injuries have limited Cespedes to only 119 games. Most recently, he was sidelined for all of 2019 as he recovered from surgery on both heels and a broken ankle.
Because the latter happened amid suspicious circumstances, Cespedes agreed to cut his 2020 salary from $29.5 million to $6 million. He can earn as much as $20 million through incentives, but that ultimately comes down to how, if at all, he even fits in the Mets' plans.
But if nothing else, the 34-year-old is healthy and ready to go. He can't be expected to run as well as he used to, yet it wouldn't be the biggest surprise if he got back to hitting rockets at the same rate he did between 2015 and 2018, when he had an .874 OPS and a 162-game average of 37 home runs.
If that's what Cespedes has in store for the Mets, they'll surely find a way to include him.
Jo Adell Makes His Case to the Los Angeles Angels
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No matter how ready they are to be promoted, the norm in Major League Baseball today is for teams to keep their best prospects out of The Show just long enough to accrue an extra year of club control.
Yet as the Mets and San Diego Padres proved last spring, exceptions can be made under extraordinary circumstances. If ever there were a candidate for similar treatment this spring, it's Jo Adell.
Adell was the Los Angeles Angels' No. 10 pick just three years ago, yet even an assortment of nagging injuries hasn't kept him from rising as one of baseball's elite prospects. To wit, he ranks at No. 6 for MLB.com and at No. 2 for Baseball Prospectus.
The 20-year-old outfielder is a true five-tool threat, not to mention one who's owned the minors with a .298/.361/.518 slash line. Though he stumbled a bit at Triple-A at the end of the 2019 season, he rebounded with a strong effort in the Arizona Fall League.
For a brief moment, Adell was looking up at Joc Pederson in the Angels' right field depth chart. Now that that's no longer the case, he can make the job his if he lives up to the hype this spring.
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Bryce Harper Gets an Early Start on an MVP Run
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Bryce Harper was still looking for a job at this point last year. He didn't get one until the Phillies finally blinked and signed him to a 13-year, $330 million pact in March.
Ultimately, Harper's debut season with the Phillies was good but not great. He finished the year with an .882 OPS, 35 home runs and 4.2 wins above replacement, according to Baseball Reference. The last of those figures tied for 20th just among National League position players.
Harper did, however, find a groove with a .970 OPS and 17 home runs in August and September. And it was the real deal, as Statcast's xwOBA metric, which is based on walks, strikeouts and contact quality, rated only two hitters better than him in that span.
Specifically, Harper's hard-hit rate jumped significantly in the season's final two months. More generally, his surge might have been the result of him finally finding his footing in Philly.
Whatever the case, the 27-year-old will emerge as an early candidate for his second MVP award if he carries that mojo over to this spring.
Gerrit Cole Looks Worth Every Penny
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Just as there were on Harper last year, there will be plenty of eyes on Gerrit Cole this spring in the wake of his nine-year, $324 million contract with the New York Yankees.
Because that's by far the most money ever spent on a pitcher, there's sure to be some mild panic if Cole fails to make a strong first impression. The Yankees would certainly be feeling especially nervous; Cole's presence only looks more important relative to the bad news they just got on James Paxton.
But rather than a disappointment, Cole should be...well, fine. Just fine.
This isn't the hottest of takes, but it's frankly difficult to find reasons to doubt the 29-year-old right-hander. He is, after all, coming off striking out 326 batters and leading the American League with a 2.50 ERA in 2019. He's also done fine in the last two springs, posting a combined 2.43 ERA with 39 strikeouts in 37 innings.
So rather than fretting about Cole, everyone should be expecting to be wowed by his usual array of high-octane stuff. The only difference this time around will be his uniform.
The Chicago Cubs Start Fresh
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If the Cubs do indeed trade Kris Bryant this spring, the move itself and the fallout from it will dominate their march toward Opening Day.
But while the rumors are sure to keep coming, the Cubs simply have too many reasons not to trade Bryant at this point.
They now know they control the 28-year-old through 2021, so there's no hurry to cash in his trade value. Beyond that, it doesn't make much sense—looking at you, Boston Red Sox—for a would-be contender to trade an MVP-caliber star.
If the Cubs do keep Bryant, the predominant storyline of their spring will be all about their fresh start under new manager David Ross. Though he lacks experience, he understands the need for himself and the many incumbents he's inheriting to "create our own unique identity" after things got stale under former skipper Joe Maddon.
Assuming Ross is successful in cultivating said identity, Cubs camp could be the wellspring for good vibes and encouraging results on the field over the next few weeks.
First Look at the New-Look White Sox and Reds
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Not many teams will look exactly the same this spring as they did last season, but only the Chicago White Sox and Cincinnati Reds fit the double-whammy of being barely recognizable and seemingly quite good.
After losing 89 games in 2019, the Chicago White Sox have remade themselves by bringing back Jose Abreu and adding Yasmani Grandal, Edwin Encarnacion, Nomar Mazara, Dallas Keuchel, Gio Gonzalez and Steve Cishek. They've also already committed to top prospect Luis Robert via a six-year contract.
The Reds, meanwhile, have responded to an 87-loss campaign primarily by overhauling their offense through the signings of Nick Castellanos, Mike Moustakas and Shogo Akiyama. To boot, they also added Wade Miley, Pedro Strop and Jose De Leon to what was already a pretty good pitching staff.
Whether the White Sox or Reds are good enough to win their respective divisions is debatable. The former faces a tall task in overcoming the Minnesota Twins in the AL Central. The latter will be up against three other contenders in the NL Central.
For now, though, both clubs will rightfully attract more spring intrigue than they have in years. And even if they have to settle for wild-card berths, both will be out to snap playoff droughts this season.
The Boston Red Sox as Public Enemy No. 2
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The Red Sox went into the spring of '19 as the darlings of Major League Baseball after winning 108 games and the World Series in 2018.
It suffices to say that they can anticipate a different reception for 2020.
The Red Sox bear a scarlet letter for getting involved in yet another technology-driven sign-stealing scandal. Even if their inevitable penalties are on the light side, they can still expect rival players, coaches, executives and fans to grumble about the legitimacy of what they achieved in 2018.
Further, the Red Sox shouldn't expect many glowing reviews of their trade of Mookie Betts and David Price for a package featuring outfielder Alex Verdugo, shortstop Jeter Downs and catcher Connor Wong.
They ticked off MLB players association executive director Tony Clark for taking so long to complete the deal, and the general reaction to it has been defined by exasperation. Heck, even incumbent slugger J.D. Martinez seems unconvinced that the Red Sox needed to trade two of their brightest stars.
Clearly, the Red Sox aren't darlings anymore. As far as their rivals and the general public are concerned, they're more like cheaters and cynics.
The Houston Astros as Public Enemy No. 1
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If there's one silver lining for the Red Sox, it's that they can count on the Houston Astros to take some of the heat off them.
By winning 311 games and making it to two World Series between 2017 and 2019, the Astros established themselves as the class of the league. But now everyone knows that the '17 Astros, at least, were not what they seemed.
A league investigation into sign-stealing allegations against that iteration of the Astros turned up overwhelming evidence of wrongdoing. General manager Jeff Luhnow and manager AJ Hinch lost their jobs, and the Astros were also fined and stripped of draft picks.
That seemed to be the end of it, but a new report from Jared Diamond of the Wall Street Journal contradicted MLB's finding that the Astros' sign-stealing system was entirely "player-driven."
Matters only got more curious when, in an interview on MLB Network, Hinch didn't refute rumors about the Astros using buzzers to signal incoming pitches as recently as last season. He could only say, "The Commissioner's Office did as thorough of an investigation as anyone could imagine was possible."
If either the Astros or MLB were hoping to be controversy-free by the time spring training arrived, well, they'd better think again. Neither the questions nor the outrage will dissipate any time soon.
The Los Angeles Dodgers Out for Revenge
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Though nobody is happy about what's come out concerning the Red Sox and Astros, there isn't a team in Major League Baseball with a bigger gripe than the Dodgers.
The Dodgers, of course, lost to the Astros in the 2017 World Series and then to the Red Sox in the 2018 World Series. If neither Fall Classic was on the level, then they have every right to feel like their championship drought has been extended to 31 years through artificial means.
"Honestly, we're curious to see what happens," reigning NL MVP Cody Bellinger said in January, according to Alden Gonzalez of ESPN. "It sucks, man. We were close, but we did it the right way."
Apart from airing their grievances, whether the Dodgers were going to do anything to get even had been a fair question. Up until recently, their offseason had been defined more by losses than additions.
With Betts and Price now aboard from Boston and Brusdar Graterol in from Minnesota in a separate trade, that's no longer the case. Even after winning 106 games in 2019, the Dodgers can now ride arguably the NL's best offense and pitching staff to an even better season in 2020.
In the meantime, expect them to go through spring like a juggernaut with a chip on its shoulder.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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