Sink or Swim: Young MLB Players in Danger of Flaming Out in 2020

A number of young, once-hyped players are in danger of flaming out across the MLB landscape heading into the 2020 season.

We've identified 10 guys who face a sink-or-swim campaign as they look to establish themselves as long-term options in the big leagues.

Here are the parameters:

• Since we're focusing on young players, only players who will be 27 years old or younger on Opening Day were considered. That notably excluded Tampa Bay Rays outfielder Hunter Renfroe, who will turn 28 later this month.

• It seems unfair to say a player who is still considered a prospect is at risk of flaming out, so anyone who has yet to surpass rookie eligibility limits (130 AB, 50 IP, 45 days on active roster prior to Sept. 1) was off-limits. Pittsburgh Pirates right-hander Mitch Keller is a notable example.

• Finally, since we're talking about guys who began their careers with a certain level of hype, players need to have appeared on at least one preseason Baseball America Top 100 prospect list. That left Detroit Tigers third baseman Jeimer Candelario out of the conversation.

Now that we're on the same page, let's get started.

RHP Tyler Beede, San Francisco Giants

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When the San Francisco Giants selected Tyler Beede with the No. 14 overall pick in the 2014 draft, the hope was that he could follow in the footsteps of Matt Cain, Tim Lincecum and Madison Bumgarner as the club's next homegrown ace.

After posting a 2.81 ERA with 135 strikeouts in 147.1 innings at Double-A in 2016, he began the following season as the No. 89 prospect in baseball and the top prospect in the San Francisco farm system.

However, he stumbled in the upper levels of the minors and is still trying to establish himself at the big league level.

In his first extended action last year, the 26-year-old logged a 5.08 ERA and 5.03 FIP in 22 starts and two relief appearances, showing flashes but struggling to find consistency.

The rebuilding Giants will no doubt give him another long look in 2020, and a step forward is still possible with improved command. That said, this could be a make-or-break season for the Vanderbilt alum if he hopes to carve out a long-term rotation spot.

CF Lewis Brinson, Miami Marlins

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With a brutal minus-2.2 WAR last season, Lewis Brinson was statistically the worst position player in baseball last season.

He hit a nonexistent .173/.236/.221 with just 10 extra-base hits and a 29.8 percent strikeout rate in 248 plate appearances, and he posted minus-3 defensive runs saved in the outfield.

The 25-year-old is now a .183/.238/.293 career hitter over 709 plate appearances at the MLB level. The five-tool upside he showed as a prospect with the Texas Rangers and Milwaukee Brewers is but a distant memory.

A top-30 prospect in baseball three years in a row from 2016 to 2018, Brinson peaked at No. 16 prior to the 2016 season. That ranking came after he hit .332/.403/.601 with 31 doubles, 20 home runs and 18 steals while reaching Triple-A in his age-21 campaign.

He hit .270/.361/.510 with 35 extra-base hits in 81 games at Triple-A last season, so there's still hope that everything will click. The Miami Marlins face another rebuilding season and can afford to give him a long leash as he tries to figure things out.

RHP Corbin Burnes, Milwaukee Brewers

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Corbin Burnes was a dynamic multi-inning weapon out of the Milwaukee Brewers bullpen during their run to the NLCS in 2018. He posted a 2.61 ERA in 30 appearances in the regular season before allowing just two earned runs with 11 strikeouts in nine playoff innings.

Used primarily as a starter during his time in the minors, he moved back into the rotation to start the 2019 season but was shelled in his first four starts. He allowed 30 hits and 21 earned runs in 17.2 innings for an unsightly 10.70 ERA before Milwaukee returned him to the bullpen.

Things didn't get much better as the season wore on. He finished with an 8.82 ERA and 1.84 WHIP over 49 innings, raising questions about his future role.

The 25-year-old was the No. 46 prospect in baseball heading into last season, his second appearance in the Top 100, but he'll need a drastic reversal of fortunes in 2020 to live up to those expectations.

CF Byron Buxton, Minnesota Twins

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Unlike many of the players on this list, Byron Buxton has enjoyed success at the MLB level.

In 2017, it appeared he was ready to shake the "bust" label when he posted a 5.1-WAR season on the strength of his Gold Glove defense (24 DRS, 11.5 UZR/150) in center field. He was still a slightly below-average offensive performer with a 93 OPS+, but he swiped 29 bases and contributed enough overall to finish 18th in AL MVP voting.

However, the injury bug has kept him from building on that performance, limiting him to 115 games over the past two seasons.

The 26-year-old played in just six games after July 31 while nursing a shoulder injury, derailing what otherwise would have been a breakout season offensively. In the 295 plate appearances he managed to make, he hit .262/.314/.513 for a 114 OPS+ with 30 doubles, four triples and 10 home runs.

He's arbitration-eligible for the first time this year, and he's only going to get more expensive in the seasons to come, so the cost-conscious Minnesota Twins could opt to go in a different direction if he can't stay on the field.

Once viewed as the No. 1 prospect in baseball, Buxton can only ride his tantalizing potential so far before he needs to prove he can be a consistent everyday player.

SS J.P. Crawford, Seattle Mariners

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J.P. Crawford appeared on Baseball America's Top 100 prospect list five different times, including four years in the Top 20, and he peaked as the No. 6 prospect in baseball heading into the 2016 season.

Despite middling numbers in the upper levels of the minors, the Philadelphia Phillies remained patient, even trading Freddy Galvis to clear a path for him to take over as the everyday shortstop in 2018.

After he hit just .214/.333/.358 for an 85 OPS+ over his first 225 plate appearances in the majors, they pulled the plug, sending him to the Seattle Mariners last offseason in the five-player trade that brought Jean Segura to Philly.

The change of scenery did little to jump-start his sputtering career.

The 24-year-old hit .226/.313/.371 for an 87 OPS+ in 396 plate appearances during his first season in a Mariners uniform. While he enters spring training without any clear competition for the starting job, he will need to improve his performance to stay in the starting lineup.

RHP Jeff Hoffman, Colorado Rockies

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Jeff Hoffman was the prospect centerpiece of the six-player trade that sent Troy Tulowitzki from the Colorado Rockies to the Toronto Blue Jays at the 2015 trade deadline. The No. 9 overall pick in the 2014 draft, he ranked as the No. 69 prospect in baseball at the time of the trade.

He would appear on two more Top 100 lists, peaking at No. 36 prior to the 2017 season after he posted a 4.02 ERA with 124 strikeouts in 118.2 innings in the hitter-friendly Pacific Coast League.

The 27-year-old has seen time in the majors each of the past four seasons but has yet to give any indication that he can be a long-term piece of the puzzle for the pitching-needy Rockies.

In 209.1 innings of work in the big leagues, he has a 6.11 ERA and 1.59 WHIP with a middling 177-98 strikeout-to-walk ratio and a 5.67 FIP that inspires little hope for better days ahead.

He is out of minor league options, so he will either need to break camp with a spot on the MLB staff this spring or be exposed to waivers. The Rockies faced a similar situation with former top prospect Eddie Butler prior to the 2017 season, and he wound up traded to the Chicago Cubs for a minor league reliever and international bonus slot money.

CF Manuel Margot, San Diego Padres

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When the San Diego Padres acquired Manuel Margot from the Red Sox in the trade that sent All-Star closer Craig Kimbrel to Boston, it looked like they were getting their future leadoff hitter and a Gold Glove-caliber center fielder.

However, in three full MLB seasons, he has looked like little more than a defensive-minded fourth outfielder.

Over the large sample size of 1,526 plate appearances in the big leagues, he is a .248 hitter with an 87 OPS+, and his .301 on-base percentage has kept him from being the table-setter many expected him to become.

He's been as good as advertised defensively, logging 27 DRS, but there hasn't been enough meat on the bone offensively to justify an everyday job.

That's no doubt part of the reason the Padres acquired Tommy Pham and Trent Grisham in separate trades to bolster their outfield contingent.

With Franchy Cordero, Wil Myers and Josh Naylor also in the mix for playing time in the grass and top prospect Taylor Trammell fast approaching, Margot's opportunity in San Diego might have already passed.

RF Nomar Mazara, Chicago White Sox

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Will a change of scenery help unlock the immense offensive potential that once made Nomar Mazara one of baseball's most exciting prospects?

It's not that the 24-year-old has been unproductive. In four MLB seasons, he's posted a 93 OPS+ while averaging 24 doubles, 20 home runs and 77 RBI.

It's that he has shown zero signs of improvement:

• 2016: 93 OPS+, .266/.320/.419, 20 HR
• 2017: 90 OPS+, .253/.323/.422, 20 HR
• 2018: 96 OPS+, .258/.317/.436, 20 HR
• 2019: 96 OPS+, .268/.318/.469, 19 HR

As a below-average defensive player (-19 DRS for his career), he can't afford to also check in as a slightly below-average offensive player, even with his decent power and run-production numbers.

The good news: He's just 24, and he's joining a Chicago White Sox team on the rise with plenty of offensive talent around him.

The Texas Rangers gave him a then-record $5 million bonus when they signed him out of the Dominican Republic, and he ranked as the No. 21 prospect in baseball back in 2016. It's just a matter of realizing his potential.

IF Ryan McMahon, Colorado Rockies

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Ryan McMahon provides unique defensive versatility with the ability to play first base, second base and third base. He also showed solid pop last season with 22 doubles, 24 home runs and 83 RBI in 539 plate appearances.

However, since he put up those numbers while playing half his games in Coors Field, it only amounted to an 87 OPS+ and a 1.5-WAR season.

The home and road splits were not pretty:

• Home: .270 BA, .863 OPS, 18 HR, 53 RBI
• Road: .226 BA, .680 OPS, 6 HR, 30 RBI

The 25-year-old was a .297/.366/.512 hitter over six minor league seasons, including a .337/.379/.577 line in 556 plate appearances at Triple-A, so he has a solid track record of offensive production.

That helped him crack the Top 100 three different times, topping out at the No. 43 spot prior to the 2016 season. However, that won't be enough to secure his spot on the roster.

The Rockies farm system is loaded with infield talent. It might not be long before McMahon's roster spot is in jeopardy, especially as his first year of arbitration eligibility and a subsequent raise await next offseason.

C Chance Sisco, Baltimore Orioles

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Chance Sisco was once viewed as the catcher of the future for the Baltimore Orioles.

Now that title clearly belongs to last year's No. 1 overall pick, Adley Rutschman. While it's unlikely he will reach the majors in 2020, his presence in the organization raises some obvious questions about Sisco's future role.

The 24-year-old was a second-round pick in 2013, and he hit .340/.406/.446 with 34 extra-base hits in 478 plate appearances at Single-A the following year.

He continued to hit as he climbed the organizational ladder, earning a spot on the Top 100 prospect list in 2017 and 2018, but he has yet to seize the starting catcher job for a non-contending Orioles team.

After hitting .210/.333/.395 with eight home runs in 198 plate appearances in the big leagues last season, he will enter camp competing with Pedro Severino and Austin Wynns for playing time.

It's now a race against the developmental clock as he looks to establish himself and create future opportunities before Rutschman inevitably supplants him.

All stats courtesy of Baseball Reference and FanGraphs, unless otherwise noted. All prospect rankings refer to Baseball America preseason rankings.