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Week 17 NFL Picks: Vegas Odds, Prop Bets and Predictions for Final Schedule

James Dudko@@JamesDudkoFeatured ColumnistDecember 29, 2019

PHILADELPHIA, PA - DECEMBER 22: Carson Wentz #11 of the Philadelphia Eagles passes the ball against the Dallas Cowboys at Lincoln Financial Field on December 22, 2019 in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
Mitchell Leff/Getty Images

Settling things in the NFC playoff picture will be the focus of Week 17 of the 2019 NFL season. The destination of the NFC East title is still undecided, but the Philadelphia Eagles can seize the prize and secure a home game in the playoffs by beating the New York Giants on the road on Sunday.

Victory for the Eagles would leave the Dallas Cowboys on the outside looking in for another season. The Cowboys host the 3-12 Washington Redskins, so they should be in a position to take advantage of any slip from the Eagles.

There is more at stake in the NFC West, where the San Francisco 49ers can either win the division and secure home-field advantage for the playoffs or else slip into the Wild Card Round if they fail to beat the Seattle Seahawks on the road.

                        

Week 17 Money Lines, Over/Unders and Predictions (per Caesars)

  • Atlanta Falcons (-110, 47.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-110) (Bucs, 24-20)
  • Chicago Bears (-175, 36.0) at Minnesota Vikings (+155) (Vikings, 17-13)
  • Cleveland Browns (-150, 43.5) at Cincinnati Bengals (+130) (Browns, 27-21)
  • Green Bay Packers (-750, 43.5) at Detroit Lions (+525) (Packers, 31-10)
  • Los Angeles Chargers (+350, 45.0) at Kansas City Chiefs (-440) (Chiefs, 28-13)
  • Miami Dolphins (+900, 45.0) at New England Patriots (-1600) (Patriots, 34-6)
  • New Orleans Saints (-900, 45.0) at Carolina Panthers (+600) (Saints, 30-17)
  • New York Jets (+100, 36.5) at Buffalo Bills (-120) (Jets, 14-10)
  • Arizona Cardinals (+240, 44.5) at Los Angeles Rams (-280) (Rams, 23-20)
  • Indianapolis Colts (-250, 41.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars (+210) (Colts, 17-6)
  • Oakland Raiders (+155, 41.0) at Denver Broncos (-175) (Broncos, 21-16)
  • Philadelphia Eagles (-190, 45.0) at New York Giants (+170) (Eagles, 24-13)
  • Pittsburgh Steelers (-125, 37.0) at Baltimore Ravens (+105) (Ravens, 24-7)
  • Tennessee Titans (-250, 44.5) at Houston Texans (+210) (Texans, 19-17)
  • Washington Redskins (+525, 46.5) at Dallas Cowboys (-750) (Cowboys, 23-10)
  • San Francisco 49ers (-175, 46.0) at Seattle Seahawks (+155) (Seahawks, 21-14) 

           

Eagles to Complete the Job vs. Giants

The fourth seed in the NFC playoff picture is the reward for the least lame team from arguably the league's weakest division this season. There's little doubt the Giants would love to stop their old enemy from playing postseason football, and Big Blue have shown improvement in recent weeks.

Saquon Barkley has been dominant on the ground, while rookie quarterback Daniel Jones has made his share of big plays.

NFL @NFL

SAQUON BARKLEY. 67 YARDS. SEE YA! @saquon has 108 rushing yards and it’s only the first quarter! 😳 #GiantsPride #NYGvsWAS 📺: FOX 📱: NFL app // Yahoo Sports app Watch free on mobile: https://t.co/csMF3GLW6Z https://t.co/ugqYlcFv1U

Bottling up Barkley will be key, and the Eagles have the players to do it. D-tackle tandem Fletcher Cox and Timmy Jernigan can dominate the interior of the Giants' O-line, leaving safety Malcolm Jenkins and linebacker Nigel Bradham free to chase down Barkley.

Conjuring magic isn't a problem for Eagles passer Carson Wentz. Yet No. 11 will have to play without his key target this week, with clutch tight end Zach Ertz set to miss out.

Field Yates @FieldYates

The Eagles have ruled TE Zach Ertz out for Sunday vs. the Giants.

Ertz is a huge loss, especially given how his sure hands, ability to create separation and understanding of coverage give Philly an edge inside the red zone:

NFL Films @NFLFilms

This week on @NFLMatchup, @gregcosell breaks down how the @Eagles find success in the redzone by using their tight ends. #PHIvsNYG https://t.co/5qJjEyCd3I

No Ertz means the Eagles will likely have to lean on rookie running back Miles Sanders. The former Penn State star has been averaging 4.5 yards per carry, and he will fancy his chances of punishing a Giants run defense guilty of surrendering 112.7 yards a game.

Even without Ertz, the Eagles have enough talent to get over the line in New Jersey and render a Cowboys win against Washington moot.

                 

Wilson, Seahawks to Complete Sweep of 49ers

Controlling Russel Wilson proved a problem for the Niners in the Bay Area back in Week 10, and Seattle's main threat will dominate again with the division on the line.

If there is hope for San Fran, it comes from how easily the Arizona Cardinals got to Wilson during last week's shock 27-13 win at CenturyLink Field. The Cards had success over Seahawks left tackle Jamarco Jones, with Chandler Jones running riot:

ESPN Stats & Info @ESPNStatsInfo

Chandler Jones is the 3rd player in NFL history to record multiple games with 4 sacks in a single season (since sacks became official in 1982). He joins Reggie White in 1986 and Karl Mecklenburg in 1985. https://t.co/bxiJ96Rdrt

Losing starter Duane Brown to knee surgery proved a huge blow for Seattle, and the 49ers could torment Jones with their ferocious defensive front. Arik Armstead, Nick Bosa and DeForest Buckner can all be game-changers, although the unit overall has struggled in recent weeks, surrendering 60 points combined against the Atlanta Falcons and Los Angeles Rams.

If Wilson gets time to throw he will make decisive plays, even if it means going after former teammate Richard Sherman:

PFF @PFF

Wilson vs. Sherman (3 games) 4/5, 68 yds, 1 TD Who gets the last laugh Sunday? https://t.co/QeWcHedK29

The Seahawks defense will also prove key to the outcome. It's a unit getting healthy at the right time after head coach Pete Carroll confirmed edge-rusher Jadeveon Clowney and cornerback Shaquill Griffin are available, per John Boyle of the team's official website.

Clowney and the rest of the front seven can shut down a Niners running game built on a committee approach this season. It means the game will be left in the hands of QB Jimmy Garoppolo, who won't match Wilson's exploits.

               

Best Prop Bets

Caesars has the over/under for San Fran's trip to Seattle set at 46.0 points. However, it's safer to bet under this week, despite the 49ers combining for 65 points when they beat the Rams 34-31 in Week 16.

The Seahawks won't be nearly as prolific, even with Marshawn Lynch reinstalled at running back after returning for a second tour with the team, along with Robert Turbin, per Boyle.

Gregg Bell @gbellseattle

Pete Carroll says he has “no hesitation” to use Marshawn Lynch full go Sunday night in his #Seahawks return game. “I’m am as excited as the fans are.” Coach says he’s been chuckling during practices at reality that 24 is back.

Seattle's reshuffled ground game won't click consistently, but Wilson will still make plays. With the Seahawks' D' throttling Garoppolo, the Niners won't keep pace with even a 20-burger from the hosts.

An over of 45.0 seems like a stretch for the Giants and Eagles. The Giants scored 41 points last week, but they won't repeat the feat against a superior Philadelphia defense.

Similarly, Wentz will find more joy against a Big Blue D lacking the pass-rushing talents the Cowboys brought to bear in Week 16.

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