NFL Picks Week 16: Expert Predictions, Odds Guide and Over-Under Lines

Strength in a numbers has a purpose beyond serving as the catchphrase of the Golden State Warriors' dynasty.

Hearing that four of five doctors agree on the benefits of a medicine product gives you some level of confidence, right? It's no different in the world of wagering.

Something feels reassuring about siding with the majority of experts. They might not get them all right—no one saw the Atlanta Falcons upsetting the San Francisco 49ers on Sunday, for instance—but a consensus prediction usually means analytical research aligns with the eye test.

We're seeking those majority opinions here by checking in on the latest expert against-the-spread picks compiled at NFLPickwatch.com. After laying out the latest lines and over-under totals from Caesars Sportsbook, we'll zero in on the three-point spread wagers holding the support of 75-plus-percent of experts.

Week 16 Odds, Predictions

Houston Texans (-3.0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | O/U 49.5

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-6.5) | O/U 36.5

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) | O/U 45.0

Baltimore Ravens (-10.0) at Cleveland Browns | O/U 47.5

Carolina Panthers at Indianapolis Colts (-7.0) | O/U 46.0

Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins (-1.0) | O/U 46.5

Jacksonville Jaguars at Atlanta Falcons (-7.0) | O/U 46.5

New Orleans Saints (-3.0) at Tennessee Titans | O/U 50.5

New York Giants at Washington Redskins (-2.5) | O/U 42.0

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.0) at New York Jets | O/U 37.5

Detroit Lions at Denver Broncos (-6.5) | O/U 38.5

Oakland Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5) | O/U 45.5

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-9.5) | O/U 51.0

Dallas Cowboys (-3.0) at Philadelphia Eagles | O/U 46.0

Kansas City Chiefs (-6.0) at Chicago Bears | O/U 44.0

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-5.5) | O/U 46.0

Week 16 Expert Picks

Eighty-Five Percent Say Take the Chiefs, Give the Points

Not all of Pickwatch's point spreads are identical to the Caesars lines, but that's the case here with Kansas City giving six points at Chicago. That line scares almost no one, and in fact, the Chiefs at minus-6 are the most popular pick among experts on the board.

The logic is by no means hard to follow.

Kansas City comes in scorching hot amid a four-game winning streak. Patrick Mahomes just played one of his best games of the season (27-of-34 for 340 yards and two touchdowns), and the defense has held opponents to 17 points or less each of its last four games.

Chicago, meanwhile, just watched its three-game winning streak snap amid a flurry of offensive malfunctions. The Bears only had three points through three quarters of their worse-than-it-sounds 21-13 loss to the Packers. Mitchell Trubisky had more interceptions than touchdowns for the second time in four games, and David Montgomery paced the Bears' running backs with only 39 rushing yards.

The Chiefs have more talent and momentum is on their side. Six points feels like a small sacrifice.

Seventy-Seven Percent Like Dolphins in a Coin Flip

The Dolphins are a one-point favorite at Caesars, and they're in a pick 'em at Pickwatch. Either way, they're positioned to take care of business and cover against the lowly Bengals.

It isn't often Miami can enter a 2019 contest and feel it has the superior squad. But with three wins to Cincinnati's one and an offense finding a potent aerial connection between Ryan Fitzpatrick and DeVante Parker, the Dolphins actually seem like the better, more focused team.

Granted, with Fitzpatrick on one side and Andy Dalton on the other, either team is a potential turnover machine. But Fitz has done more good than bad of late, totaling seven touchdown passes against four interceptions over his last four outings. Dalton, who only recently returned from a benching, has just four touchdown passes against nine picks over his last six

It's hard to say if the Bengals will even get much use out of their most explosive playmaker, Joe Mixon. Given Tannehill's willingness to let it fly and Cincy's struggles in defending the pass, it would only take a couple of those deep balls connecting before the Bengals potentially must abandon their ground game.

It's strange feeling this confident about this season's Dolphins, but it makes sense—to us and to 77 percent of experts out there.

Seventy-Seven Percent Will Give Seven Points for Broncos

Not all rookie quarterbacks are created equal, nor are they plugged into equal situations.

That might explain why experts are so strongly in support of Drew Lock's Broncos against David Blough's Lions.

Lock landed in Denver as the 42nd pick of this summer's draft with a rocket arm and shoddy decision-making. He needed polish, and he got a decent amount while sitting behind Joe Flacco. Now that Lock finds himself under center, he's supported by playmakers on the outside, a capable rushing attack and a stingy defense. All of that has contributed to a 2-1 start to his career as an NFL starter.

Blough, meanwhile, was undrafted out of Purdue and originally joined up with Cleveland before an August trade to Detroit. Once injuries forced Matthew Stafford and Jeff Driskel out of action, Blough was the last man standing on a sinking ship. His defense is leaky, his running game is inconsistent at best and his own performance is problematic. He has a 57.9 completion percentage and more picks (five) than scores (three).

The Lions have three wins on the season and none since late October. The Broncos have actually gone .500 since falling in an 0-4 hole out of the gate. Denver is the better team with the better freshman quarterback, and the gap is wider than a seven-point spread.