NFL Week 16 Picks: Game Odds, Props, Lines and Over-Under Predictions

Zach Buckley@@ZachBuckleyNBANational NBA Featured ColumnistDecember 18, 2019

Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson calls a play against the Tennessee Titans in the first half of an NFL football game Sunday, Dec. 15, 2019, in Nashville, Tenn. (AP Photo/Mark Zaleski)
Mark Zaleski/Associated Press

Week 16 of the 2019 NFL season is a weekend feast of football.

The festivities get underway Saturday with a three-game slate featuring both the New England Patriots and San Francisco 49ers, each 11-game winners. The streaking Baltimore Ravens and surging Kansas City Chiefs bookend Sunday's 12-game docket, while NFC North rivals the Green Bay Packers and Minnesota Vikings lock horns on Monday night.

It should be a fascinating weekend, and it's loaded with money-making potential, too. We'll examine the slate from a wagerer's point of view by laying out the latest point spreads and over-under totals from Caesars Sportsbook then offering some of our best bets.


Week 16 Odds, Predictions

Houston Texans (-3.0) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers | O/U 49.5

Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots (-6.5) | O/U 37.5

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco 49ers (-6.5) | O/U 45.0

Baltimore Ravens (-10.0) at Cleveland Browns | O/U 47.5

Carolina Panthers at Indianapolis Colts (-7.0) | O/U 46.0

Cincinnati Bengals at Miami Dolphins (-1.0) | O/U 46.5

Jacksonville Jaguars at Atlanta Falcons (-7.0) | O/U 46.0

New Orleans Saints (-2.5) at Tennessee Titans | O/U 50.5

New York Giants at Washington Redskins (-2.5) | O/U 42.0

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3.0) at New York Jets | O/U 38.5

Detroit Lions at Denver Broncos (-6.5) | O/U 38.5

Oakland Raiders at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5) | O/U 45.5

Arizona Cardinals at Seattle Seahawks (-9.5) | O/U 50.0

Dallas Cowboys (-3.0) at Philadelphia Eagles | O/U 46.0

Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5) at Chicago Bears | O/U 45.0

Green Bay Packers at Minnesota Vikings (-4.5) | O/U 45.0


Week 16 Best Bets

Line: Saints (-2.5) at Titans

While we can't erase a near-season's worth of changes, imagine telling yourself before the campaign started that a Drew Brees-led team would only be a 2.5-point favorite over a Ryan Tannehill-led team.

You would've done a spit take, then hurried to clean off your computer so you could put your life savings on the Saints.

The margin now isn't as wide as it seemed then. Tannehill is 6-2 since taking over as Tennessee's starting quarterback, Derrick Henry is challenging for the NFL's rushing title, and rookie wideout A.J. Brown has experienced exponential growth in the second half.

But still...this is Brees vs. Tannehill. And it's a scorching hot Brees at that.

The future Hall of Famer has 656 passing yards, nine touchdown passes and only 12 incompletions over his last two games. He's also throwing to the best receiver in football in Michael Thomas, who just had his eighth 100-yard performance in 10 games. Alvin Kamara is a home-run hitter as a rusher and receiver. Plus, New Orleans has one of the NFL's best rush defenses, which is capable of making Tennessee's offense one-dimensional.

The Saints are still fighting for the NFC's top seed, so they'll be plenty motivated to play. It's hard to see how Tannehill and Co. keep this close.


Total: Over 49.5 Points in Texans-Buccaneers

Tampa averages the NFL's most passing yards at 308.8 per game. Houston sits 11th at 245.0. The two offenses have combined for 57 touchdown passes.

Tampa allows the NFL's third-most passing yards at 276.8 per game. Houston yields the fifth-most at 266.1. The two defenses have surrendered 59 total touchdown passes.

See where this is headed?

It's Deshaun Watson on one side and Jameis Winston on the other. How is this not going to be a shootout that produces 50-plus points?

The Bucs can't run the ball (91.4 yards per game, tied for sixth-fewest), and the Texans will have a tough time running against this defense (73.3 rushing yards allowed per game, best in the NFL by more than 15 yards). This contest almost surely falls squarely on the shoulders of these two electric passers.

Tampa has played three games all season that didn't feature a 50-plus point total. Two of them came in the campaign's first two weeks. This game won't break that trend.


Prop: Jameis Winston Over 331.5 Passing Yards (+120, Per OddsChecker)

In an era of outrageous passing stats, few lines are as absurd as the ones Winston puts forth.

His average weekly output this season: 326.6 yards. He has thrown more passes than anyone, and he has a 239-yard cushion on second place in total yards (4,573; Dak Prescott sits second at 4,334).

To be clear, Winston's passes don't always find their mark. His 61.7 completion percentage is third-worst among the 11 players to attempt 450 passes. His 24 interceptions are six more than anyone else has thrown.

But those are concerns for the real-life and fantasy football. From a wagering perspective, all that matters is total volume, and Winston offers an incredible amount.

He has 914 passing yards in just the past two weeks, and now the leaky Texans' defense is supposed to be the one that slows him down? We're not buying it. He might not top 450 yards again, but it feels like you can pencil him in for at least 350.