B/R Expert Consensus NFL Picks for Week 16

Thirty-two games. That's all Bleacher Report NFL analysts Gary Davenport, Brad Gagnon and Brent Sobleski have left in order to salvage their season picking every game against the spread. 

It's been an extremely odd year featuring bad beats and practically no home-field advantage. Excuses, excuses. The potentially good news is the law of averages could be on the side of the majority of our predictors. 

Through 15 weeks, here's the big picture (last week's records in parentheses):

1. Brad Gagnon: 115-106-3 (6-9-1) 

2. Brent Sobleski: 109-112-3 (6-9-1)

3. Gary Davenport: 104-117-3 (8-7-1)

Consensus picks: 104-117-3 (5-10-1)

Moneyline consensus: 144-78-2 (10-6)

And here are 16 fresh selections for the penultimate week of the 2019 season. 

Lines from Caesars as of 8 p.m. ET on Wednesday, Dec. 18.

Houston Texans (9-5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-7)

Paul Sancya/Associated Press

The vast majority of the public money bet on Saturday's matchup between the Houston Texans and Tampa Bay Buccaneers has gone to the Texans, who are laying three points on the road against a well-coached team that has won four straight games with nothing to lose. 

Even though Houston has plenty to lose, the majority of our analysts aren't willing to lay those points and are fading the public. 

"This has the look and feel of a field-goal game," Gagnon said. "And under those circumstances, I'm not giving up three points with the inferior team on the road. That's right: The Buccaneers are better than the Texans. If not for an incredible Daniel Jones-led comeback in Week 3, a badly botched call in Week 8 and a heartbreaking overtime loss in Week 9, they'd be a double-digit-win team in playoff contention. 

"Even without receivers Mike Evans and Chris Godwin, Bucs quarterback Jameis Winston is playing well enough right now to torch the league's 27th-ranked pass defense in terms of DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) at Football Outsiders. And the Bucs' opportunistic, aggressive defense should have plenty of opportunities to make an inconsistent, oft-sloppy offense pay. The better, hotter and looser home team is getting points here. Take advantage!"

Still, it's fair to be concerned about Tampa Bay's injuries at wide receiver, and it's fair to figure the Texans will come out with plenty of intensity considering what's at stake in the AFC playoff race. That has Davenport rolling with Houston, which prevents us from a unanimous consensus out of the gate. 

Predictions
Davenport: Houston (-3)
Gagnon: Tampa Bay (+3)
Sobleski: Tampa Bay (+3)
Consensus: Tampa Bay (+3)

Score Prediction: Buccaneers 26, Texans 23

Buffalo Bills (10-4) at New England Patriots (11-3)

Michael Reaves/Getty Images

Team X is 11-3, and in its last four games against teams that currently have winning records, it is 1-3 with a scoring margin of 74-98. Team Y is 10-4, and in its last four games against teams that currently have winning records, it is 2-2 with a scoring margin of 58-57. 

Team X plays Team Y at home on Saturday. You figure it'd be laying three or four points, max. But because Team X is the vaunted New England Patriots, and because Team Y is the far-from-vaunted Buffalo Bills, those backing Buffalo can get 6.5 points for Saturday's matchup. 

The majority of our panelists are down with that.

"On the surface, bettors might lean toward the Patriots because of their long history of dominating AFC East opponents, and many don't seem to believe in the Bills," Sobleski said. "But Buffalo is the better team right now, especially taking the points. The Bills have won four of their last five and are only one of two opponents (including the San Francisco 49ers) to hold the league's best team, the Baltimore Ravens, under 30 points since Week 7. Sean McDermott's squad today is far better than the version that lost to New England by six points in the first month of the season."

And that might not have been a loss if not for a New England touchdown on special teams as well as the second-half departure of Bills quarterback Josh Allen. He's healthy now, though, and his team has established more of a rhythm on both sides of the ball. They control the ball well and are generating takeaways, and they haven't been fazed outside of Orchard Park. They're 6-1 on the road this season, and they've won all three of their away games against teams that are .500 or better. 

So expect a close game, even if the picks leader isn't on board because he figures the Pats are destined to finally wake up and make a statement before a national audience. 

Predictions
Davenport: Buffalo (+6.5)
Gagnon: New England (-6.5)
Sobleski: Buffalo (+6.5)
Consensus: Buffalo (+6.5)

Score Prediction: Patriots 21, Bills 17

Los Angeles Rams (8-6) at San Francisco 49ers (11-3)

Michael Zagaris/Getty Images

The Los Angeles Rams either win big or lose big. In fact, they haven't played a game that was decided by a single-digit margin since Week 10, and eight of their last nine games have been decided by 10-plus points. They're likely to lose to a superior San Francisco 49ers team on the road Saturday night, which is why two of our three experts are willing to lay 6.5 points with San Francisco. 

"The 49ers fell into a trap last week against Atlanta," Gagnon said, "but that could be bad news for the Rams. That experience was likely a wakeup call for a damn good team, and now the Niners know they can't mess around if they want to win the NFC West. I don't think they'll risk it and will step on the gas pedal."

The 49ers aren't the picture of health, but that could be trumped by the fact Rams quarterback Jared Goff is dealing with a hand injury, which clearly hampered him in the second half of L.A.'s blowout Week 15 loss to the Dallas Cowboys. Goff should play, but he'll likely be less than 100 percent against one of the league's toughest defenses. 

But again, Davenport stands in dissent. And it's worth noting that those picking against the majority as lone wolves are 71-54-2 this season.

Predictions
Davenport: Los Angeles (+6.5)
Gagnon: San Francisco (-6.5)
Sobleski: San Francisco (-6.5)
Consensus: San Francisco (-6.5)

Score Prediction: 49ers 26, Rams 17

Baltimore Ravens (12-2) at Cleveland Browns (6-8)

Rob Carr/Getty Images

The Baltimore Ravens have lost just one game by multiple scores this season, and that came at home against the Cleveland Browns. And while they're now on the road for this Week 16 rematch, too much has changed since then for Gagnon and Sobleski to buy into the idea that this game will even be close, let alone another Cleveland victory. 

Baltimore's defense was still a work in progress for that Week 4 meeting. It ranked 27th in yards allowed and generated just four takeaways in the month of September. It has since become substantially more stout and opportunistic, which is bad news for a mistake-prone Browns team. 

And that's not the only matchup advantage for the Ravens. 

"The Browns can't stop the run," Sobleski said. "They allow 4.9 yards per carry, which is tied for fourth-worst in the NFL. Thus, Cleveland can't stop Baltimore's offense. It really is that simple. This game is a potential blowout that could lead to Freddie Kitchens' eventual firing."

The Ravens are also healthier now than they were earlier this season, while the Browns don't have top pass-rusher Myles Garrett. Throw in that the team seems to be dealing with turmoil, and the Ravens are the safe bet.

Predictions
Davenport: Baltimore (-10)
Gagnon: Baltimore (-10)
Sobleski: Baltimore (-10)
Consensus: Baltimore (-10)

Score Prediction: Ravens 33, Browns 16

Carolina Panthers (5-9) at Indianapolis Colts (6-8)

Rob Leiter/Getty Images

Both the Carolina Panthers and Indianapolis Colts are locked in free-falls ahead of their Week 16 matchup. But the Colts are at least at home, and the Panthers are likely starting a rookie quarterback who will be making his NFL debut. 

Under those circumstances, the majority of our predictors feel safer laying seven points with the Colts than backing a Panthers team that has lost five of its last eight games by at least eight points. 

"This isn't a ringing endorsement of the reeling Colts, who are 1-6 since starting the season 5-2. Or a non-ringing endorsement," Davenport said. "But as bad as things have gotten of late for the Colts, it's been that much worse for the Panthers: Carolina has dropped six in a row and seven of eight since the bye week. A change to rookie Will Grier at quarterback isn't going to fix Carolina's god-awful run defense, either. I'll lay the points with the slightly less horrible team. Yay!"

Indeed, Carolina's run defense ranks dead last in DVOA, which could give strong Colts back Marlon Mack a chance to break out of a rut and take some pressure off struggling quarterback Jacoby Brissett. 

But Gagnon isn't on board. He's traumatized by Indy's complete no-show with the season on the line Monday night against the New Orleans Saints. The Colts might be able to win this game back at home, but on short rest, seven points is too much for the current picks leader. 

Predictions
Davenport: Indianapolis (-7)
Gagnon: Carolina (+7)
Sobleski: Indianapolis (-7)
Consensus: Indianapolis (-7)

Score Prediction: Colts 28, Panthers 17

Cincinnati Bengals (1-13) at Miami Dolphins (3-10)

Seth Wenig/Associated Press

It's almost impossible to confidently back the Miami Dolphins because with that shell of a roster, you just never know if they're going to show up. A bad team can't consistently get by on momentum, adrenaline, inspiration and good coaching. 

But at least the Dolphins have a lot of that going for them, and they've been competitive more often than not dating back to their Week 5 bye. The same can't be said of the Cincinnati Bengals, who have lost 10 of their last 13 games by at least six points. 

Our entire gang is surprised the Dolphins are laying just a point at home, and Davenport has a fantastic explanation to defend that decision. 

"There are some games in Week 16 featuring massive stakes—and then there's the tussle of tomato cans between the Dolphins and Bengals in Miami," Davenport said. "There are any number of highly scientific and technical reasons that I could rattle off to explain why the Dolphins are going to hand Cincinnati loss No. 14 on the season. But it can all be boiled down to this: Ryan Fitzpatrick has a magnificent beard, Andy Dalton does not. You can't argue with the facts, folks."

The point? You probably don't want to dig into your savings account for this game. 

Predictions
Davenport: Miami (-1)
Gagnon: Miami (-1)
Sobleski: Miami (-1)
Consensus: Miami (-1)

Score Prediction: Dolphins 27, Bengals 20

Jacksonville Jaguars (5-9) at Atlanta Falcons (5-9)

Ezra Shaw/Getty Images

The Atlanta Falcons are a talented team that, until recently, was playing poorly. Can the same be said of the Jacksonville Jaguars? They've certainly played poorly, but are they talented? How much better is Jacksonville's defense than Atlanta's? And does that make up for the fact the Falcons have clear advantages at practically every offensive position? 

You can see what we're getting at, and that's why it might not be too unbelievable that Atlanta is laying seven points at home for Sunday's matchup with the Jags. In fact, all three of our analysts are backing the Falcons. 

Although Jacksonville is coming off a last-minute road victory over the Oakland Raiders, the Falcons are coming off an even more impressive road victory in San Francisco. And the Falcons have now won four of their last six games, while Jacksonville lost each of its previous five games by 17-plus points apiece. 

In fact, when the Jaguars have lost, it hasn't been by fewer than seven points since Week 2. When they lose, they lose big. And with this roster, they're losing a lot. 

And despite the Oakland game, there's a lot of evidence of an implosion in Jacksonville. 

"The Jaguars are on the verge of imploding with executive vice president of football operations Tom Coughlin out and head coach Doug Marrone likely to be fired at the end of the season," Sobleski said. "Granted, the same might apply to Falcons head coach Dan Quinn, but Atlanta has played great in the last two weeks with big wins over the Panthers and 49ers. The Falcons are going down fighting."

Predictions
Davenport: Atlanta (-7)
Gagnon: Atlanta (-7)
Sobleski: Atlanta (-7)
Consensus: Atlanta (-7)

Score Prediction: Falcons 30, Jaguars 17

New Orleans Saints (11-3) at Tennessee Titans (8-6)

Sean Gardner/Getty Images

Did the Tennessee Titans peak too early? And are the New Orleans Saints peaking as we speak? Tennessee's four-game winning streak came to a halt with a dud performance against the Texans in Week 15, while the Saints have scored 34.8 points per game during a remarkably hot five-game stretch. 

They also have the hottest quarterback in the league and—as Sobleski points out in justifying our analysts' decision to unanimously back New Orleans at -2.5 points in Nashville on Sunday—the ability to slow down Tennessee's offensive bread and butter. 

"This matchup really comes down to one factor: Can the Saints defense slow running back Derrick Henry?" Sobleski said. "Well, the group ranks fourth overall in run defense. So it's more than capable of neutralizing the league's second-leading rusher. From that point, the Titans offense isn't nearly as effective."

Yeah, when Henry finally cooled off a bit against Houston, so too did quarterback Ryan Tannehill. And while the Titans have a top-notch run defense, the Tennessee pass D ranks 22nd in DVOA. That could be a problem against Drew Brees and Michael Thomas, both of whom are tearing it up right now. The former has a 16-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 127.5 passer rating the last five weeks, and it seems odd that his team is laying less than a field goal in this spot. 

Predictions
Davenport: New Orleans (-2.5)
Gagnon: New Orleans (-2.5)
Sobleski: New Orleans (-2.5)
Consensus: New Orleans (-2.5)

Score Prediction: Saints 30, Titans 21

New York Giants (3-11) at Washington Redskins (3-11)

Will Newton/Getty Images

You always want to be careful with meaningless games between bad teams, especially when they're familiar foes. No result should surprise you when the New York Giants and Washington Redskins get together Sunday, so don't risk wasting your money. 

But you might still have to make a pick, just as our analysts did. With their hands tied, the majority was more comfortable taking less than a field goal with the home team. For Gagnon, it's really about trends. 

"The Redskins lost a heartbreaker last week against the Philadelphia Eagles, while the Giants finally ended a nine-game losing streak," he said. "Bad teams don't often string together wins, and I think it's extremely unlikely they go on the road and put together another half-decent performance. Washington has been very competitive in each of its last four games—they're 2-2 with a minus-four scoring margin—and should at least be viewed as the superior team right now. That gives the Redskins tremendous value as a mere 2.5-point fave."

Both rookie quarterbacks are wild cards, but even if that's a wash, the Redskins have a higher-ranked defense. That said, the Giants have this game's most valuable offensive weapon in running back Saquon Barkley, who is coming off his best game since September and faces a bottom-10 run defense in terms of DVOA. 

That explains why our guys lack unanimity and reinforces the idea that this game isn't a good play. 

Predictions
Davenport: New York (+2.5)
Gagnon: Washington (-2.5)
Sobleski: Washington (-2.5)
Consensus: Washington (-2.5)

Score Prediction: Redskins 23, Giants 20

Pittsburgh Steelers (8-6) at New York Jets (5-9)

Justin K. Aller/Getty Images

You might want to wait on the Pittsburgh Steelers and the New York Jets to release their inactives before laying down your hard-earned dollars on either team. But with both JuJu Smith-Schuster (Pittsburgh's top offensive player) and Jamal Adams (New York's top defensive player) seemingly on track to return from injuries, our analysts are leaning toward laying three points with the Steelers at MetLife Stadium. 

Davenport appears to have the strongest stance. 

"Steelers quarterback Devlin 'Duck' Hodges may have laid an egg last week against the Bills," he said, "but even in a game where Hodges threw four picks, the Steelers lost by just one score to a 10-win Bills squad. The Steelers are still clinging like grim death to the sixth seed in the AFC, and the Jets are most assuredly not a 10-win team. Pittsburgh will win this by at least a touchdown."

The offensively challenged Steelers could have trouble running away from a Jets team that should be a lot healthier after a mini bye week following a Thursday night game. But lately, Gang Green has been embarrassed regardless of injuries, and that November three-game winning streak feels like ancient history. 

To boot, in four games against top-five defenses in terms of DVOA this season, the Jets have averaged just 12.8 points per game. The Steelers defense ranks third in DVOA. The best unit in this game is Pittsburgh's high-flying, opportunistic D, which should feast on Sam Darnold and Co. 

Laying only a field goal doesn't seem like much of a risk. 

Predictions
Davenport: Pittsburgh (-3)
Gagnon: Pittsburgh (-3)
Sobleski: Pittsburgh (-3)
Consensus: Pittsburgh (-3)

Score Prediction: Steelers 21, Jets 16

Detroit Lions (3-10-1) at Denver Broncos (5-9)

Brett Carlsen/Getty Images

How can anybody pick the crashing-and-burning Detroit Lions right now? They've covered just one spread in their last nine games, and yet they're only seven-point underdogs on the road against the scrappy Denver Broncos. 

Our analysts will gladly give up that touchdown. 

"The bloom came off the Drew Lock rose last week in Kansas City, but Denver's rookie quarterback was going to struggle at some point," Davenport said. "Speaking of struggle, how about those Lions? The offense has been chewed to pieces by injuries, the defense is getting worse by the week, and the fanbase is upset the head coach isn't going to be fired. There's an old betting axiom: Always pick the team that isn't starting David Blows at quarterback. Or maybe it was David Blah. Might be Blough or something. I dunno."

Denver tripped up against the mighty Kansas City Chiefs last week, but it hammered the AFC South-leading Texans on the road one week before that. Lock was exposed a bit in Kansas City, but now he gets to tee off on a pass defense with the league's fourth-worst DVOA. Denver's defense has been solid at every level, while the depleted Lions offense has averaged just 14.7 points per game with Blough at the helm. 

The backdoor cover is a risk here, but the Broncos are a strong home team with an average margin of victory of eight points in their most recent home wins over the Tennessee Titans, Cleveland Browns and Los Angeles Chargers, all of whom are better than Detroit. 

Predictions
Davenport: Denver (-7)
Gagnon: Denver (-7)
Sobleski: Denver (-7)
Consensus: Denver (-7)

Score Prediction: Broncos 24, Lions 13

Oakland Raiders (6-8) at Los Angeles Chargers (5-9)

Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images

The Oakland Raiders are a complete mess. They just blew a 13-point second-half lead in their final game in the Bay Area, and that came after they lost three consecutive games by 21 or more points. They beat their Week 16 opponent, the Los Angeles Chargers, at home in November, but a lot has changed since then. 

No Josh Jacobs and no Trent Brown, and the rest of the offensive line is in rough shape as well. It's no wonder the wheels have fallen off on both sides of the ball. (They arguably already fell off on defense, where they rank ahead of only Miami in DVOA.) 

The Chargers aren't much more trustworthy, but considering the state of the Raiders, Sunday's seven-point spread still isn't high enough for the majority of our predictors. 

"Good lord, there are a lot of 'lesser of two evils' games this week," Davenport said. "The Chargers stink—last week's seven-turnover fiasco against the Vikings settled that. And a touchdown is a big enough spread that I get why Gagnon took the points. But as bad as the Bolts are, the Raiders look even worse after blowing it last week against a Jaguars team that spent November getting its head kicked in on a weekly basis."

It's hard to imagine Oakland getting anything going offensively against a talented and increasingly healthy Los Angeles defense, and the Bolts still have the offensive firepower to rebound from last week's turnover-fest. They could put together another game like the one in Jacksonville two weeks ago, when they scored 45 points and accumulated 525 yards in a turnover-free performance.

But you admittedly never know what you're going to get from the Chargers, who blasted those Jaguars two weeks ago and then got hammered by the Minnesota Vikings at home in Week 15. And they don't have a home-field advantage, which means this could actually serve as a second finale for Raiders fans in California. That's why Gagnon is still willing to take the points and spoil a unanimous consensus. 

Predictions
Davenport: Los Angeles (-7)
Gagnon: Oakland (+7)
Sobleski: Los Angeles (-7)
Consensus: Los Angeles (-7)

Score Prediction: Chargers 28, Raiders 17

Arizona Cardinals (4-9-1) at Seattle Seahawks (11-3)

Christian Petersen/Getty Images

The Arizona Cardinals have struggled mightily against high-quality opponents this season, and they lost by 17 points at home in Week 4 to their Week 16 opponent, the Seattle Seahawks. 

And yet our crew agrees the Seahawks are laying too many points Sunday. They're backing the Cardinals with 9.5 points in their back pocket, partly because Seattle simply hasn't won big since that Arizona game. 

"The Seahawks are great, but they have their limitations," Gagnon said. "They've yet to win by a double-digit margin at home this season. And while the Cards struggled in their last meeting with Seattle, let's not forget that Arizona held a three-point lead over the 49ers late in the fourth quarter of a November road game.

"The Cardinals have lost by more than 10 points just once since Week 9, and the Seahawks could be in rough shape with Josh Gordon suspended, Bobby Wagner hurting, Jadeveon Clowney and Ziggy Ansah both question marks and Quandre Diggs likely out. Seattle will probably win this thing, but only by three to seven points."

Arizona is indeed a whole lot healthier, and there are some obvious matchups to exploit anyway. Cards quarterback Kyler Murray has excelled when he's had time to work, and the depleted Seattle pass rush has by no means been a steady force. Meanwhile, Seattle's poorly- anked run defense has struggled badly in recent weeks, which bodes well for the league's No. 2 running game in terms of DVOA—one that didn't have breakout star Kenyan Drake last time around. 

Don't be surprised if this is a very close contest, just as they almost always are when Seattle is involved.

Predictions
Davenport: Arizona (+9.5)
Gagnon: Arizona (+9.5)
Sobleski: Arizona (+9.5)
Consensus: Arizona (+9.5)

Score Prediction: Seahawks 27, Cardinals 24

Dallas Cowboys (7-7) at Philadelphia Eagles (7-7)

Brandon Wade/Associated Press

Once again, injuries are a major storyline ahead of a critical NFC East battle between the Dallas Cowboys and Philadelphia Eagles, who are getting 2.5 points at home after back-to-back skin-of-their-teeth victories to stay alive in the playoff race. 

Tyron Smith, Dak Prescott, Leighton Vander Esch, La'el Collins and Zack Martin are all dealing with injuries for the Cowboys, while Lane Johnson, Nelson Agholor, Derek Barnett, Jordan Howard, Ronald Darby, Fletcher Cox and Brandon Brooks are question marks to varying degrees for the Eagles. 

It's really difficult to get a strong read on this game until more is known about the statuses of Prescott, Smith, Johnson and Agholor, but at the moment, the majority of our experts are reluctantly rolling with a Dallas team that does appear to be in better shape all around.

"Dallas finally built some momentum in its favor with an impressive win over the Rams last week," Sobleski said. "While momentum shouldn't be considered an actual tangible reason when betting for the following week's game, the confidence-builder was exactly what the team needed to get back on track. The NFC East is Dallas' for the taking, and the Cowboys will do exactly that against the rival Eagles."

Betting against the Eagles this time of year is always scary, though, because they're a well-coached, mentally tough team that has excelled with its back against the wall in three consecutive years. Philly found a way to beat the Giants and Redskins the last couple weeks, but the Cowboys present a larger challenge. 

Gagnon still doesn't trust the Cowboys enough to lay points with them on the road, but he's in the minority. There's a very good chance that Prescott plays and teams up with Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup to light up an awful Philly secondary. 

Predictions
Davenport: Dallas (-2.5)
Gagnon: Philadelphia (+2.5)
Sobleski: Dallas (-2.5)
Consensus: Dallas (-2.5)

Score Prediction: Cowboys 26, Eagles 21

Kansas City Chiefs (10-4) at Chicago Bears (7-7)

Adam Glanzman/Getty Images

The Kansas City Chiefs are laying six points on the road against the Chicago Bears on Sunday night, but there's no guarantee the Chiefs will have anything significant for which to play. 

"This number might—and probably should—drop if the Patriots beat the Bills on Saturday," Gagnon said, "so you might want to wait that out if you figure that'll happen. Still, the Chiefs are the pick despite bad line value here. This is simply not a good matchup for the Bears, who are quietly much less effective on the ground than through the air. Their nearly useless running game won't be able to exploit Kansas City's weak run defense, while Kansas City's stellar pass D should feast on Mitchell Trubisky in a big spot." 

The Chiefs defense as a whole has really stepped it up of late, with that unit allowing just 11.3 points per game since Week 11. They've been generating takeaways consistently, while the Bears offense hasn't become any less sloppy than it was early on. 

"The one way for the Bears to keep this close," Gagnon added, "is by making splash plays with that talented defense. But Patrick Mahomes appears to be getting back in his groove, and Chicago's D just hasn't been opportunistic this season. They have just six takeaways in their last nine games, which is the lowest total in the NFL during that stretch."

Throw in that the Bears might be deflated following a season-ending loss to the Packers, and this has to be the pick. 

Predictions
Davenport: Kansas City (-6)
Gagnon: Kansas City (-6)
Sobleski: Kansas City (-6)
Consensus: Kansas City (-6)

Score Prediction: Chiefs 27, Bears 17

Green Bay Packers (11-3) at Minnesota Vikings (10-4)

Stacy Revere/Getty Images

Why are the Minnesota Vikings laying 5.5 points to close out the week against a Green Bay Packers team that possesses a better record and a better quarterback? 

That's befuddling all three of our analysts. 

"This is the most baffling line of the week," Gagnon said. "With so much at stake, I wouldn't dream of laying 5.5 points with a Kirk Cousins-quarterbacked Vikings team against Aaron Rodgers. Cousins is 0-8 in his career on Monday Night Football, and since the start of 2018, Minnesota is 1-9 against teams with winning records. (The only win came by just two points last October.)

"The Vikings are coming off a big win, which only increases the likelihood that they'll come back to earth against a tough opponent in prime time. Rodgers is probably excited to light up that terrible secondary, and Minnesota will struggle to exploit Green Bay's soft run defense with or without an injured Dalvin Cook." 

Cook might play through his shoulder injury, but it's true that he won't likely be 100 percent. That's gotta be a major factor. And you do have to wonder if this number is inflated by the fact Minnesota won big in Los Angeles. 

Predictions
Davenport: Green Bay (+5.5)
Gagnon: Green Bay (+5.5)
Sobleski: Green Bay (+5.5)
Consensus: Green Bay (+5.5)

Score Prediction: Packers 24, Vikings 21