NFL Picks Week 16: Latest Odds, Prop Bets, Over/Under Lines and Predictions

Joe Tansey@JTansey90Featured ColumnistDecember 17, 2019

New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady rolls out to pass under pressure from Buffalo Bills defensive tackle Star Lotulelei (98) in the second half of an NFL football game, Sunday, Sept. 29, 2019, in Orchard Park, N.Y. (AP Photo/Ron Schwane)
Ron Schwane/Associated Press

The Buffalo Bills and New England Patriots have both solidified spots in the AFC playoffs, but neither has locked up the AFC East title yet. Clarity could be provided in the divisional race Saturday, when the Bills visit Gillette Stadium for a rematch of their Week 4 defeat. 

That is the first of six Week 16 clashes involving two teams still alive in their respective postseason hunts. 

The New Orleans Saints' trip to play the Tennessee Titans is the only contest that will affect both the AFC and NFC playoff pictures. 

The Baltimore Ravens come into Week 16 in the best position of any Super Bowl contender, and one more victory will keep them at home until the championship tilt in Miami.


NFL Week 16 Schedule

All times ET

Odds via Caesars and Oddschecker; predictions against the spread in bold

Saturday, December 21

Houston (-2.5) at Tampa Bay (Over/Under: 51 (1 p.m., NFL Network) 

Buffalo at New England (-6.5) (O/U: 38.5) (4:30 p.m., NFL Network) 

Los Angeles Rams at San Francisco (-6.5) (O/U: 45) (8:15 p.m., NFL Network) 


Sunday, December 22

Baltimore (-10) at Cleveland (O/U: 48) (1 p.m., CBS) 

Cincinnati at Miami (-1) (O/U: 46.5) (1 p.m., CBS) 

Pittsburgh (-3) at New York Jets (O/U: 38.5) (1 p.m., CBS) 

Jacksonville at Atlanta (-7) (O/U: 45.5) (1 p.m., Fox) 

Carolina at Indianapolis (-6.5) (O/U: 46.5) (1 p.m., Fox) 

New Orleans (-3) at Tennessee (O/U: 51.5) (1 p.m., Fox) 

New York Giants at Washington (-2.5) (O/U: 42.5) (1 p.m., Fox) 

Detroit at Denver (-6.5) (O/U: 37.5) (4:05 p.m., CBS) 

Oakland at Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5) (O/U: 45.5) (4:05 p.m., CBS) 

Dallas (-2.5) at Philadelphia (O/U: 46) (4:25 p.m., Fox) 

Arizona at Seattle (-9.5) (O/U: 49.5) (4:25 p.m., Fox) 

Kansas City (-5) at Chicago (O/U: 45) (8:20 p.m., NBC) 


Monday, December 23

Green Bay at Minnesota (-4.5) (O/U: 45) (8:15 p.m., ESPN) 


Best Bets

Buffalo at New England (Under 38.5) 

PITTSBURGH, PENNSYLVANIA - DECEMBER 15: Tre'Davious White #27 of the Buffalo Bills celebrates with teammates after intercepting a pass during the first quarter against the Pittsburgh Steelers in the game at Heinz Field on December 15, 2019 in Pittsburgh,
Justin K. Aller/Getty Images

Twenty-six points were scored in the Week 4 meeting between the Bills and Patriots at New Era Field. 

Sean McDermott's team outgained its AFC East foe 375-224, but it committed four turnovers and managed a single trip to the end zone. 

A similar offensive struggle could be in play Saturday due to the recent production of both franchises. 

Buffalo totaled 17 points in each of the last two weeks, and its defense allowed two of its last seven opponents to eclipse 20. Before New England put up 34 on the Cincinnati Bengals in Week 15, it did not reach 25 in five straight games. Since their Week 10 bye, the Patriots have gained 300 yards on one occasion, while Saturday's visitors have held three of their last four foes beneath that threshold. 

Both defenses are also coming off five-turnover performances, and in the last two weeks, they have combined for 13 takeaways. 

If those trends extend into Saturday, the under has a good chance of hitting, just like it did in the Bills' 17-10 triumph over the Pittsburgh Steelers. 


New Orleans (-3) at Tennessee

ATLANTA, GEORGIA - NOVEMBER 28:  Ra'Shede Hageman #90 and Cameron Jordan #94 of the New Orleans Saints celebrate a sack by Marcus Davenport #92 against the Atlanta Falcons during the first quarter at Mercedes-Benz Stadium on November 28, 2019 in Atlanta,
Todd Kirkland/Getty Images

In the last five weeks, the Saints have averaged 382.8 yards and 34.8 points while going 4-1 and clinching the NFC South. In the last two victories, the New Orleans run defense has held the Atlanta Falcons and Indianapolis Colts to 135 yards. 

The effectiveness of Cameron Jordan and Co. could be key to earning separation at Nissan Stadium. 

Since the start of November, the Titans have racked up triple digits on the ground in each of their six contests. 

Tennessee is 7-0 in November and December when Derrick Henry runs for more than 100 yards, and its winning streak ended Sunday while the running back was held to 86 yards on 21 carries. 

If Sean Payton's team contains the 2015 Heisman Trophy winner, it may open up a gap on the scoreboard by taking advantage of the AFC South side's pass defense. Mike Vrabel's side has allowed 300 passing yards in each of the last four games, and it is facing a team with a single sub-200-yard aerial output since Week 5. 

New Orleans has also held its previous two AFC South foes to 13 combined points and 121 rushing yards. 

If the Saints front seven takes over and Drew Brees produces his third straight 300-yard game, they could stay alive in the hunt for the NFC's No. 1 seed. 


Baltimore Winning Margin (13-18 at +375; bet $100 to win $375)

BALTIMORE, MARYLAND - SEPTEMBER 29: Quarterback Lamar Jackson #8 of the Baltimore Ravens eludes the tackle of Mack Wilson #51 of the Cleveland Browns at M&T Bank Stadium on September 29, 2019 in Baltimore, Maryland. (Photo by Rob Carr/Getty Images)
Rob Carr/Getty Images

Although the Ravens have blown out a handful of opponents, they earned two of their three AFC North wins by a combined nine points

Their only divisional defeat came in Week 4 to the Cleveland Browns, which was also the last time they lost a game. Since then, John Harbaugh's team has an average margin of victory of 18 points and owns six double-digit wins.

Cleveland has won its last four home contests, but it is coming off a 14-point loss to the Arizona Cardinals that struck a deflating blow to its playoff chances. 

The Browns' run defense has gotten much worse in the last three games, as it has been gashed for 529 yards. If Freddie Kitchens' side can't contain Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram II, the Ravens could cruise to their second straight double-digit win and secure home-field advantage in the AFC playoffs. 

Baltimore's duo ran for 162 yards in Week 15 and it owns an extra few days of rest since beating the New York Jets on Thursday. 


Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.

Statistics obtained from Pro Football Reference.