Week 16 NFL Picks: Over-Under Projections, Odds Advice and Line Spreads

Jake RillSenior Analyst IDecember 17, 2019

Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson (4) scrambles against the Tennessee Titans in the second half of an NFL football game Sunday, Dec. 15, 2019, in Nashville, Tenn. The Texans won 24-21. (AP Photo/James Kenney)
James Kenney/Associated Press

Bad news for football fans: There's no NFL game on Thursday night this week. The good news? There will be three games on Saturday.

Not only that, but each of those games features at least one team that is in the playoff hunt and has something to play for. So, it should be an exciting day of NFL action.

Heading into Week 16, here's a look at this week's full slate of games, along with odds, predictions and a closer look at the lines for Saturday's matchups.


Week 16 Odds, Predictions

Houston (-2.5) at Tampa Bay; Over/Under 51 points

Buffalo at New England (-6.5); O/U 38.5

L.A. Rams at San Francisco (-6.5); O/U 45

Baltimore (-10) at Cleveland; O/U 48

Carolina at Indianapolis (-7); O/U 45.5

Cincinnati at Miami (-1); O/U 46.5

Pittsburgh (-3) at N.Y. Jets; O/U 38.5

Jacksonville at Atlanta (-7); O/U 45.5

New Orleans (-1.5) at Tennessee; O/U 50.5

N.Y. Giants at Washington (-2.5); O/U 42.5

Detroit at Denver (-6.5); O/U 37.5

Oakland at L.A. Chargers (-5.5); O/U 45.5

Arizona at Seattle (-9.5); O/U 49.5

Dallas (-2.5) at Philadelphia; O/U 46

Kansas City (-5) at Chicago; O/U 45

Green Bay at Minnesota (-4.5); O/U 45

Picks made against the spread. Odds courtesy of Caesars.


Saturday Predictions

Houston (-2.5) over Tampa Bay

Last week may have been the Texans' most important game of the regular season. They defeated the Titans to take back sole possession of first place in the AFC South, and now they control their own destiny in the division race.

That means Houston can clinch the division with a road win over Tampa Bay, and that's what should happen.

This game is going to have a lot of points, as both teams have strong offenses led by talented quarterbacks—Houston's Deshaun Watson and Tampa Bay's Jameis Winston—and below-average pass defenses. That's a recipe for a big offensive day on both sides.

However, the Texans are the better team with more to play for. Expect them to win by at least a field goal and secure their spot for the postseason.


New England (-6.5) over Buffalo

Gary Landers/Associated Press

The Bills are a far better team than they've been for much of the past two decades, but they still struggle against the Patriots, who are seeking their 11th straight AFC East title.

New England can secure the division crown with a home win over Buffalo, which it should handily secure. The Patriots ended their rare skid this past week, snapping a two-game losing streak with a win at Cincinnati. Now, they face the Bills, who they already beat on the road this season in Week 4.

This contest has the potential to be a defensive battle. That's the style of games Buffalo has played this season, while New England has the No. 1 defense in the NFL.

The Bills may keep it close early, but the Patriots' defense will shut down their offense as Tom Brady and the New England offense ensure it wins by at least seven points.


San Francisco (-6.5) over L.A. Rams

Josie Lepe/Associated Press

Entering last weekend, the 49ers were alone in first in the NFC and in control of their own destiny for the No. 1 seed. Now, they're not even first in their own division.

The Seahawks have taken the lead in the NFC West, but the 49ers can still come back and win the division as the two teams play in Week 17. First, though, San Francisco hosts the Los Angeles Rams, another tough division rival.

Although the 49ers have lost two of the last three weeks, they've also secured recent wins over the Saints and Packers, two of the other top teams in the NFC. This is a talented team fueled by the No. 2-ranked defense in the NFL and numerous playmakers on offense.

San Francisco beat the Rams on the road in Week 6, notching a 20-7 victory. Expect a similar result this time, as the 49ers should pull away late to win by at least a touchdown.