Week 14 NFL Picks: Latest Betting Odds, Vegas Spreads and Projections

Joe Tansey@JTansey90Featured ColumnistDecember 3, 2019

New Orleans Saints offensive guard Patrick Omameh (60) congratulates wide receiver Michael Thomas (13) after Thomas scored a touchdown, during the second half at an NFL football game against the Carolina Panthers, Sunday, Nov. 24, 2019, in New Orleans. (AP Photo/Bill Feig)
Bill Feig/Associated Press

The New Orleans Saints can become the front-runner for NFC home-field advantage in Week 14. 

With a home win over San Francisco 49ers, Sean Payton's team would have wins over both NFC West teams in contention for the No. 1 seed. The NFC South champion is 5-1 inside the Superdome.

San Francisco's last two road contests have been decided by three points and it is 1-2 in its last three clashes with playoff teams. 

Over in the AFC, the Baltimore Ravens are in control of the No. 1 seed after the New England Patriots lost in Week 13. 

To keep their position atop the conference, the Ravens have to win at the Buffalo Bills, who are coming off a statement win in Dallas on Thanksgiving Day. 

                      

NFL Week 14 Schedule

All times Eastern

Odds via Caesars; predictions against the spread in bold. 

Thursday, December 5

Dallas (-3) at Chicago (8:20 p.m., Fox/NFL Network)

         

Sunday, December 8

Baltimore (-5.5) at Buffalo (1 p.m., CBS) 

Cincinnati at Cleveland (-8.5) (1 p.m., CBS)

Miami at New York Jets (-5.5) (1 p.m., CBS) 

Indianapolis at Tampa Bay (-2.5) (1 p.m., CBS) 

Denver at Houston (-9.5) (1 p.m., CBS) 

Carolina at Atlanta (-2.5) (1 p.m., Fox) 

Washington at Green Bay (-13) (1 p.m., Fox) 

Detroit at Minnesota (-13) (1 p.m., Fox) 

San Francisco at New Orleans (-2.5) (1 p.m., Fox) 

Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) at Jacksonville (4:05 p.m., Fox)

Tennessee (-2.5) at Oakland (4:25 p.m., CBS) 

Kansas City at New England (-3) (4:25 p.m., CBS) 

Pittsburgh (-2.5) at Arizona (4:25 p.m., CBS) 

Seattle (-2.5) at Los Angeles Rams (8:20 p.m., NBC)

               

Monday, December 9

New York Giants at Philadelphia (-8) (8:15 p.m., ESPN)                   

             

Predictions

San Francisco at New Orleans (-2.5) 

John Amis/Associated Press

The initial reaction to the 49ers-Saints line may be to hammer the home side since the spread is so small, and there is a good chance New Orleans covers. 

The Drew Brees-led offense eclipsed 300 total yards in five of six home games, and in two, it racked up over 500 total yards. 

Defensively, the top NFC team has limited the rushing attacks of most opponents, as only Atlanta and Carolina totaled over 100 rushing yards since Week 3. 

If Cameron Jordan, Demario Davis and others clog up the lanes for Tevin Coleman and Raheem Mostert, the visitors will be forced to win with a one-dimensional offense. 

Jordan could be a menace to Jimmy Garoppolo as well, as he has 22 quarterback hits and 13.5 sacks to go along with his 13 tackles for loss. 

Even if he is contained, Marcus Davenport can put the 49ers quarterback under pressure. He has 16 quarterback hits and six sacks. 

Conversely, San Francisco's defense has allowed over 100 rushing yards in nine consecutive games. 

That could allow Alvin Kamara to produce his first triple-digit ground game of 2019. In the last three contests, the Saints running back has 190 rushing yards on 35 carries. 

The opposing rushing totals are a bit stunning since Nick Bosa, Arik Armstead and the rest of the 49ers defensive line is having a terrific season.

Bosa, Armstead and DeForest Buckner all have at least six sacks and over 10 quarterback hits for a defense that has not allowed a 300-yard passer in the last three weeks. 

The last quarterback to do so was Russell Wilson in Seattle's Week 10 overtime win at Levi's Stadium.

In his last three victories, Brees has a single 300-yard outing, which suggests he could work around the pass rush and put up decent numbers to still earn the victory. 

The biggest difference between the two sides is a big-play receiver. Michael Thomas is far better than any wide receiver on the San Francisco roster.

Thomas has seven 100-yard outings and caught at least five balls in each of his 12 games. 

If he breaks free from the San Francisco secondary, the NFL's top receiver could either find the end zone or extend scoring drives to keep the Saints ahead while their defense contains San Francisco's top weapons.

                  

Baltimore at Buffalo (+5.5) 

Michael Ainsworth/Associated Press

Buffalo proved in its Week 4 home loss to New England and Thursday's win over Dallas that it can compete with teams in playoff positions. 

That should translate into a close affair with the Ravens, who did not cover in their Week 13 home victory over San Francisco. 

Baltimore dominated New England, Houston and the Los Angeles Rams, but there is reason to believe the Bills front seven could slow down Lamar Jackson and Mark Ingram. 

Sean McDermott's team allowed 70.3 rushing yards in the previous three contests and it held New England to 74 rushing yards. 

Jordan Phillips and Shaq Lawson, both of whom have 10 tackles for loss, will be two of the many linemen tasked with filling up the middle or taking away the outside lanes for Baltimore's duo. 

Buffalo's rushing attack could also keep the contest close, as it earned 536 yards on the ground in the last three games.

Josh Allen has less than half of the rushing yards Jackson has, but he has one more ground touchdown than the Most Valuable Player favorite. 

The second-year quarterback has developed more consistency in the air over the last month, with an average of 234.5 passing yards

If he continues to pick out John Brown and Cole Beasley, while Frank Gore and Devin Singletary grind out yards in between the tackles, Allen could keep his team within one score. 

Baltimore is capable of blowing out the Bills, but the AFC wild-card leader has lost by double digits once. 

                   

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.

Statistics obtained from Pro Football Reference.

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