Start 'Em or Sit 'Em for Fantasy Football Week 13

It's the end of the line—for some, anyway.

In many fantasy football leagues, Week 13 brings with it the final matchups of the regular season. For some folks, this week's just a formality; they've already sewn up a playoff spot and are just jockeying for position at this point. For others, it's just playing out the string—one final week in a disappointing fantasy campaign.

However, for quite a few fantasy owners, this is the most pressure-packed week of the year. The equation's quite simple: win, and it's on to the postseason. Lose, and the season's over.

No pressure.

With several months of work, research and hand-wringing boiling down to one weekend of NFL action, lineup decisions this week are more agonizing than ever. Every call can be the difference between moving on or having to wait for (shudder) baseball season.

It's enough to give you indigestion before you even have a chance to load up that third plate of Thanksgiving dinner.

Well, I'm here to help settle your stomach, dear reader—and not just by telling you to steer clear of cousin Carl's mystery casserole.

Every week during the 2019 season, I've examined the start/sit questions on the Bleacher Report app and picked out some that will offer insight into players who could be due for huge stat lines or disappearing acts—the sorts of breakouts or busts that can make or break a week. And in this case, a season.

Let's go get the biggest of wins.

Still can't figure out your fantasy football lineup for the week? Check out Your Fantasy Fire Drill with Matt Camp, and he'll solve your problems live. Submit your questions and tune in every Sunday at 11:30 a.m. ET, only on the B/R app.

QB Carousel

From the Bleacher Report App

This quarterback query is a two-horse race, assuming Lamar Jackson of the Baltimore Ravens isn't available in the "etc." category.

The Atlanta Falcons' Matt Ryan is out. After stinking up the joint this past Sunday in a favorable matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Ryan can't be trusted in a must-win week.

Jared Goff of the Los Angeles Rams is double-super-extra-out. When last we saw Goff, he was throwing for 212 yards without a single touchdown (and two interceptions) against the Baltimore Ravens.

The Rams are a mess offensively.

That leaves two signal-callers: the Buffalo Bills' Josh Allen and the Tennessee Titans' Ryan Tannehill.

Tannehill's been on a heck of a run since taking over for Marcus Mariota, passing for 1,420 yards with 10 scores and a passer rating of 111.4. Since Week 7 (the first game Tannehill started), the eighth overall pick of the 2012 draft has posted top-five numbers at the quarterback position in many fantasy scoring systems.

The thing is, so has Allen. As a matter of fact, thanks largely to his 387 rushing yards and seven scores on the ground, Allen ranks as a top-five quarterback for the season in Yahoo default fantasy scoring.

Given how closely ranked the two players are in regard to production this season, the matchup is the tiebreaker here, or at least it would be if the Indianapolis Colts and Dallas Cowboys hadn't given up nearly identical fantasy points per game to the quarterback position.

This is a toss-up in just about every sense, so the edge goes to the player who can pick up extra yards with his legs.

The Call: Allen

The Perils of Overthinking

From the Bleacher Report App

The first part of this question isn't a question. It's a case of overthinking.

Yes, the Baltimore Ravens face a stout San Francisco 49ers defense Sunday. And Drew Brees will be a first-ballot Hall of Famer five years after he retires.

But Lamar Jackson has well over 50 more fantasy points in NFL.com default fantasy scoring than the No. 2 quarterback, Russell Wilson. I don't care if Jackson's facing the '85 Bears—you start him. He's having a historic season.

At tight end, Jacob Hollister's been a nice find for the Seattle Seahawks, and Wilson likes to target his tight end in the red zone. But Darren Waller is the third-most targeted tight end in the NFL in 2019 and fifth in PPR fantasy points.

OK, so that one's not really a question, either.

In the flex spot, Christian Kirk of the Arizona Cardinals has had a nice season. The Miami Dolphins' DeVante Parker is finally showing some glimpses of the ability that made him a first-round pick. And Amari Cooper of the Dallas Cowboys is coming off a goose egg and draws a tough matchup with a stout Bills secondary.

But the Cowboys are desperate for a win, and Cooper's the No. 1 receiver for the NFL's No. 1 passing game.

Again, not a question.

So far as the defenses go, neither the Baltimore Ravens nor New England Patriots draw great matchups in Week 13. Both have been lights-out for fantasy owners of late. But the Patriots are fourth in the league in sacks and first in takeaways.

That's the only one of the four that's close.

The Call: Jackson, Waller, Cooper, Patriots

Overthinking, Part 2

From the Bleacher Report App

This one's at least a little understandable, but it's still overthinking.

Stephon Gilmore of the New England Patriots is arguably the best cover corner in the NFL. As Avery Duncan reported for Texans Wire, per Pro Football Reference, Gilmore's passer rating against was a minuscule 40.6—and that was before Gilmore shut out Amari Cooper in last week's win over the Dallas Cowboys.

Per Duncan, Texans head coach Bill O'Brien admitted All-Pro wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins is going to have his hands full with Gilmore on Sunday.

"He's got really good size, length, speed. Very smart. He's been playing for a long time," O'Brien said. "Very instinctive, good ball skills, does a good job of being patient. He's patient, he never panics, he's got a lot of confidence in himself."

It's also true that in five career games against the Patriots, Hopkins has yet to score a touchdown. But in two meetings with Gilmore as a member of the Patriots, Nuk reeled in 15 catches for 154 yards.

Those numbers aren't great, but they certainly aren't bad enough to sit one of the NFL's most dangerous receivers in favor of a wideout who's been hurt much of the season (Sterling Shepard) or one who has more than four catches in just one game this year (Robby Anderson).

The Call: Hopkins

Then vs. Now

From the Bleacher Report App

At the beginning of the season, it's safe to say this fantasy owner probably liked their depth at the running back position. All three of these players had the potential to serve as a fine second fantasy starter.

That was then. This, unfortunately, is now.

The Patriots' Sony Michel is coming off one of his better outings of the season and draws a matchup Sunday with a Texans team allowing the 10th-most PPR points to the running back position in 2019. But Michel is averaging less than 3.5 yards per carry, hasn't topped 100 total yards since Week 6 and hasn't scored since Week 7.

David Montgomery of the Chicago Bears gets an outstanding matchup on Thanksgiving against a Detroit Lions team that's 24th in run defense and has surrendered the second-most fantasy points to the position. But Montgomery has had even less success running the ball this year than Michel; he's averaging just 3.3 yards per carry.

The San Francisco 49ers' Tevin Coleman has been the most successful back of this trio from a per-touch perspective. The fifth-year veteran ranks 18th in PPR fantasy points per game among running backs. But he hasn't averaged four yards a carry, either, and his Week 13 matchup with the Ravens is much less favorable.

Montgomery's tempting here; the Lions have been a goldmine for running backs in 2019. But with Isaiah Wynn back at tackle for the Pats, Michel has both a stable fantasy floor and a good chance at finding the end zone.

The Call: Michel

You Want Me to THINK?

FRom the Bleacher Report App

Generally speaking, nothing good has ever come from me thinking. But there's a first time for everything, so here goes.

The running back call appears to be a fairly easy one. The Arizona Cardinals' David Johnson was a first-round pick in many fantasy drafts in 2019, but he's also one of the year's biggest busts at the position. In Arizona's last game, Johnson was on the field for all of nine snaps. By weight of comparison, Kenyan Drake was on the field for 61 snaps.

Johnson hasn't touched the ball 10 times in a game since all the way back in Week 6. The Los Angeles Chargers' Austin Ekeler, on the other hand, had 13 touches for 132 yards two weeks ago against the Kansas City Chiefs.

At wide receiver, it's a much closer call. John Brown of the Buffalo Bills has been one of the more consistent pass-catchers in the league this year, but he draws a Dallas defense that has given up the fourth-fewest PPR points to wide receivers in 2019. The Bengals' Tyler Boyd gets Andy Dalton back at quarterback, but there's the whole "plays for the Bengals" thing to consider.

Brown's consistency wins out for the first spot.

The second play here is Calvin Ridley of the Atlanta Falcons. Ridley managed just three catches for 28 yards when the Falcons met the Saints a few weeks ago, and New Orleans might get cornerback Marshon Lattimore back for this one.

But Ridley's been red-hot of late, catching at least six passes, topping 80 yards and finding the end zone in each of the last two games.

Plus, it gives you two players to pull for as you stuff your face Thursday.

The Call: Brown, Ridley

What Can Brown Do for You?

From the Bleacher Report App

As I mentioned in the previous question, John Brown has quietly been having an excellent season. Through 12 weeks, he is 15th in PPR fantasy points among wideouts—the highest ranking of any of the players listed here.

Not only has Brown been productive, but he's also been consistent. The 29-year-old caught four or more passes for over 50 yards in each of his first 10 games this season. Only once this season has Brown failed to tally double-digit fantasy points in PPR scoring systems in 2019.

He gets one spot here.

The second one's a more difficult call. Generally speaking, I'd side with the extra touches that a running back like Tevin Coleman will receive because touches equal opportunity. But Coleman's matchup with the Ravens isn't favorable, and the 49ers are likely going to need to throw the ball to win this game.

The Detroit Lions' Kenny Golladay had a great first half and sits inside the top 20 in fantasy points for the year. But with David Blough making his NFL debut at quarterback in place of the injured Matt Stafford and Jeff Driskel, there's not much shine left on the third-year pro.

Michael Gallup of the Dallas Cowboys has enjoyed a coming-out party of sorts in 2019—he's a top-25 PPR option at this point in the year. But the Bills possess the third-best pass defense in the NFL, allowing less than 185 yards per game through the air.

The Minnesota Vikings' Stefon Diggs has been an up-and-down fantasy option this season, prone to occasionally disappearing from the stat sheet. But as last week's 5/121/1 stat line showed, he is also capable of putting up week-winning stat lines.

Diggs also benefits from an above-average matchup with the Seattle Seahawks, and it can be argued that Adam Thielen's potential return from injury could actually be a good thing for Diggs: Opposing defenses won't be able to bracket him in coverage.

The Call: Brown and Diggs

Feel the Burn

From the Bleacher Report App

OK, let's take this position by position and see if we can't avoid any more burning sensations.

Those are...unfortunate.

As I mentioned earlier, Ryan Tannehill's been really productive for fantasy owners since taking over for Marcus Mariota in Tennessee. But you can't let last week's clunker in Beantown scare you off the Cowboys' Dak Prescott.

That game was played against one of the stingiest pass defenses in the NFL in a driving rainstorm. The Cowboys still have the best passing offense in the league, the team will be at home, and Dallas needs a win in the worst way. Even in a bad matchup with a stout Bills defense, Prescott's the call.

At wide receiver, T.Y. Hilton of the Colts would be an easy "yes" were he healthy. But he's not: While Hilton played last week, his calf injury clearly limited him. That leaves Christian Kirk of the Cardinals and Cooper Kupp of the Rams. The Rams are having all kinds of problems offensively, but a leaky Cardinals defense that's giving up the seventh-most PPR fantasy points to receivers this year should afford Jared Goff an opportunity to get the L.A. passing game back on track.

Given how much time Larry Fitzgerald spends in the slot, it's entirely possible Kirk will draw cornerback Jalen Ramsey in coverage. All the more reason to go with Kupp at wide receiver.

The flex play is a matter of choosing between running backs, and here it's an easy call. James White is a talented player, but his workload with the New England Patriots can vary greatly from week to week. The Chargers have struggled against the run this year, surrendering the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs this season.

That sets the Denver Broncos' Phillip Lindsay up for a big game.

The Call: Prescott, Kupp, Lindsay

Two by Two

From the Bleacher Report App

We'll start here with the wide receivers, since one is quite possibly the most obvious call I've ever made in this column. The Saints' Michael Thomas leads the NFL in both receptions and yardage by a wide margin. He's an absolute must-start.

At the second spot, there's been plenty written this week about how good John Brown's been this year for the Bills. But he's out of luck here. So is Jamison Crowder of the New York Jets, despite a productive season and a favorable fantasy matchup with the woeful Cincinnati Bengals.

That's because in addition to ranking inside the top five fantasy wide receivers for the season in PPR leagues, D.J. Chark of the Jacksonville Jaguars draws a Week 13 matchup with a Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense that's given up the most PPR fantasy points per game to wide receivers in 2019.

Where the running backs are concerned, Detroit's Bo Scarbrough is out. The rookie has played relatively well since being thrust into the lineup, but the Lions offense looked terrible last week in Washington. The Jaguars' Leonard Fournette faces a Tampa Bay run defense that leads the NFC, but he's the best bet of this group to get a short-yardage score. He's in.

That leaves a virtual toss-up between the Bucs' Ronald Jones II and Chargers' Austin Ekeler. The tiebreaker here is the matchup: Jones goes up against a Jaguars defense that has struggled on the ground, surrendering the eighth-most fantasy points per game to running backs this year.

The Call: Thomas, Chark, Fournette, Jones

The Defense Rests

From the Bleacher Report App

We'll wrap up this week's questions (at least in the non-rapid fire division) by giving the defensive side of the ball some love.

There really isn't a bad answer here—this is a who's who of streaming options in Week 13.

The Pittsburgh Steelers rank toward the top of the league in sacks and takeaways and sit third in NFL.com default fantasy scoring. But while the Browns were an excellent matchup earlier in the season, the Cleveland offense has stepped up its play and cut down on turnovers.

The New York Jets are coming off a great effort against the Oakland Raiders and face the winless Bengals. But with Andy Dalton back at quarterback for Cincinnati, the team might actually be marginally competent on offense.

Stranger things have happened.

The Green Bay Packers are likely seething after getting waxed by the San Francisco 49ers and face a New York Giants team that ranks second in the NFL in giveaways. But there's one option here that has an even better matchup.

That option is the Philadelphia Eagles. At 5-6, the Eagles are in desperation mode heading into a Week 13 tilt with a Miami Dolphins team that ranks at or near the bottom of the league in most offensive categories. Only the Jets have given up more fantasy points per game to team defenses in 2019.

Of a good variety of choices, the Eagles are the best.

The Call: Philadelphia Eagles

Rapid Fire

David J. Phillip/Associated Press

And now, with the value afforded by a Black Friday towel sale and the speed with which said towels fly off the shelves, it's time to bang out some questions rapid-fire style.

Hopefully we can avoid the fistfights.

jathom has a flex question. "Half-point PPR. Diggs, Devante Parker or [Devonta] Freeman?"

It looks like Freeman will be back in the lineup Thanksgiving night, but he had just 10 carries for 38 yards against the Saints a few weeks ago. Parker's looked good of late for the Dolphins, but Diggs has a fantasy ceiling that Parker can't really match.

ericwillenbrock needs two wide receivers. "Cooper Kupp, Amari Cooper, Kenny [Golladay], Terry McLaurin, Tyreek Hill."

With Tyreek Hill practicing in full Wednesday, he's the top-ranked option here. Cooper's the top receiver in the league's No. 1 passing game, so he gets the second nod over Kupp (struggling offense) and Golladay and McLaurin, both of whom have issues at the quarterback position.

Paulo737 has a running back question. "[Devin] Singletary or [Mark] Ingram? One-point PPR."

Singletary looked good last week, topping 100 yards against the Denver Broncos. But Ingram and the Ravens are beyond hot right now, and the weak link in the San Francisco defense is against the run.

It's a couple of less-than-ideal flex options for NeoSundae. "DeVante Parker or Kenyan Drake?"

If I had any confidence in how the carry-share would be split up in Arizona, I'd go with Drake here. But Chase Edmonds' return only muddies the water that much more there. Give me Parker in a game where the Dolphins will probably be playing from behind.

hugolewis is digging through the scrapheap at running back, "Bo Scarbrough or Jonathan Williams?"

This is actually a pretty easy call. While Scarbrough has looked pretty good, Williams has looked really good with the Indianapolis Colts, topping 100 rushing yards in each of the last two games.

Williams is one of the options for dhilly97 as well. "Full PPR. Pick one—Mark Ingram or Jonathan Williams?"

Williams has been quite the find for the Colts, but there's no way you can start him over Ingram going up against San Francisco's 19th-ranked run defense.

jayberly needs three wide receivers from this list. "Cooper Kupp, DJ Moore, Jarvis Landry, Courtland Sutton, Devante Parker, Sammy Watkins."

Sutton's out after last week's stinker by Brandon Allen. Parker just doesn't have the upside of some others on this list. Watkins has been hit-or-miss all season—especially when Tyreek Hill's on the field. Landry has four touchdowns over his last three games, while Kupp and Moore both draw favorable matchups with the Cardinals and Redskins.

Finally, jmscgregor has a Seattle-sized RB issue. "Rashaad Penny or Chris Carson?"

Carson's fumbling issues appear to have finally caught up with him. After topping 100 rushing yards last week, Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll talked up Penny's explosiveness. The Vikings aren't a great matchup for running backs, but of the two, Penny's the better play. Ride the hot hand.

Have other fantasy football start/sit questions? Post them here, on the Bleacher Report app or on Twitter @IDPSharks, and I'll do my best to help.

Gary Davenport was the Fantasy Sports Writers Association 2017 Football Writer of the Year.