NFL Picks Week 11: Tips and Predictions for Prop Bets, Over/Under Lines and Odds

Week 10 wrapped with one of the best games of the 2019 NFL season so far. The San Francisco 49ers were handed their first loss of the year in overtime, thanks to a memorable performance from the Seattle Seahawks and quarterback Russell Wilson. While that outcome may have surprised some, it wasn't the biggest shocker of Week 10.

The one-win Atlanta Falcons embarrassed the one-loss Saint in New Orleans, while the Miami Dolphins picked up their second win in a row by beating the Indianapolis Colts. Patrick Mahomes made his return from injury, but the Kansas City Chiefs still lost their fourth game in six weeks.

The NFL is unpredictable, which is part of the reason that Week 11 is shaping up to be another fun one. Things kick off with the Cleveland Browns and the suddenly-surging Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday night. Here, we'll examine some of the top props for that game, along with predictions for every game and the latest odds and over/unders from Caesars. 

NFL Week 11 Odds, Over/Unders and Predictions

Pittsburgh Steelers (+3, 40 O/U) at Cleveland Browns: Pittsburgh 22, Cleveland 17

Atlanta Falcons (+5, 50.5) at Carolina Panthers: Carolina 27-23

Dallas Cowboys (no line) at Detroit Lions: Dallas 28-22

Buffalo Bills (-5.5, 39.5) at Miami Dolphins: Buffalo 24-20

Jacksonville Jaguars (no line) at Indianapolis Colts: Jacksonville 22-20

Denver Broncos (+10.5, 39) at Minnesota Vikings: Minnesota 28-19

Houston Texans (+4, 49) at Baltimore Ravens: Baltimore 28-22

New Orleans Saints (-6, 50.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: New Orleans 35-28

New York Jets (+1.5, 38) at Washington Redskins: New York 17-13

Cincinnati Bengals (+10, 48.5) at Oakland Raiders: Oakland 30-17

Arizona Cardinals (no line) at San Francisco 49ers: San Francisco 35-25

New England Patriots (-3.5, 44) at Philadelphia Eagles: New England 26-20

Chicago Bears (+7, 41.5) at Los Angeles Rams: Los Angeles 21-18

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5, 53) at Los Angeles Chargers: Kansas City 33-27

Pittsburgh Steelers and Cleveland Browns UNDER 40 Points

Winslow Townson/Associated Press

The Steelers are on a four-game winning streak, but they haven't exactly been an offensive powerhouse. Quarterback Mason Rudolph has been a game manager, and the running game has been inconsistent—largely due to injuries. The good news is that the Steelers may see the return of James Conner this week.

"I'm making a lot of progress on it, and I think I'll be good to go," Conner said, per ESPN's Brooke Pryor.

Even if Conner can go, Pittsburgh is likely to have some struggles on a short week and on the road. This is why the under is enticing in the matchup. The Steelers defense, which has allowed no more than 24 points in its last four outings, should do its part.

Even with a plethora of weapons, Cleveland has been unable to find offensive consistency this season.

Steelers to Punt the Most

Here's a fun little prop bet from Oddschecker.com. Which team will punt the most between Cleveland and Pittsburgh? Given the Steelers' ascending defense, the Browns seem like the obvious answer, but Pittsburgh is the right one.

The reason? Takeaways. The Pittsburgh defense forced four turnovers against the Los Angeles Rams in Week 10, and it now has 26 on the season. The Browns, meanwhile, are minus-eight in turnover differential this season. Quarterback Baker Mayfield has been responsible for 13 giveaways this season.

While this should be a largely defensive game, Pittsburgh should win the turnover battle. The Browns can't punt if they're giving the ball away, so Pittsburgh is the sneaky pick for this prop.

Browns UNDER 23.5 Points

We'll turn back to that Steelers defense for another prop at Oddschecker.com. You can find 8-13 odds that Cleveland will score fewer than 23.5 points.

Unless the Browns defense shows out and scores on its own, Cleveland is highly unlikely to top the 24-point mark. Not only is the Pittsburgh defense playing too well—especially on the back end—but scoring has been a constant struggle for the Browns this season.

Take last week's game against the Buffalo Bills. At one point, Cleveland ran eight plays inside the Bills 2-yard line. They came away with no points. The Browns have averaged just 19 points per game this season and has scored more than 23 points only twice.

The Browns may find success moving the ball on the ground with Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, but don't expect Cleveland to suddenly become a scoring machine.