Week 10 NFL Picks: Vegas Odds, Spread Advice and Predictions

Each week of the 2019 NFL season makes each squad a bit less mysterious.

Sure, this league has the capacity to surprise at any time and in any matchup. But every team has played at least eight games at this point. It's hard to mask an identity for that long.

Everyone knows significantly more about these clubs than we did in September—oddsmakers included. Their lines grow more statistically driven by the week, making them even harder to project.

But we're always up for a challenge, so we'll lay out the latest lines and predict each contest below, then take a deeper dive into three of the best matchups.

Week 10 NFL Odds and Predictions

Los Angeles Chargers (-1.0) at Oakland Raiders | O/U 48.5

Arizona Cardinals at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.0) | O/U 51.5

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints (-13.0) | O/U 51.5

Baltimore Ravens (-10.0) at Cincinnati Bengals | O/U 45.0

Buffalo Bills at Cleveland Browns (-2.5) |  O/U 40.5

Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears (-2.5) | O/U 42.0

New York Giants (-2.5) at New York Jets | O/U 43.5

Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans (no line)

Miami Dolphins at Indianapolis Colts (-10.5) | O/U 44.0

Carolina Panthers at Green Bay Packers (-5.0) | O/U 47.0

Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at Pittsburgh Steelers | O/U 44.0

Minnesota Vikings at Dallas Cowboys (-3.0) | O/U 47.5

Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers (-6.0) | O/U 46.5

Picks made against the spread. Odds courtesy of Caesars.

Spread Advice

Take Arizona and the Points Against Tampa

If you can forget that these clubs have a combined 5-11-1 record this season, this has potential to be one of the week's most entertaining collisions.

Both offenses can put up points in bunches. Tampa has averaged the fourth-most points in the league (28.8). Arizona's ranking isn't great due to inconsistency—quarterback Kyler Murray and coach Kliff Kingsbury are both NFL rookies after all—but this team can pop at any time. It has put up at least 25 points three of the last four weeks, including a 34-point performance when Murray threw for 340 yards and three scores.

These defenses have a tendency to leak, too. Arizona has allowed a league-high 3,668 yards this season. Tampa has ceded the second-most points per game at 31.5.

There's a reason this over/under is just as high as a matchup featuring Drew Brees and Matt Ryan.

If Murray and Jameis Winston go blow-for-blow, these teams could race past that 51.5 point total. Tampa might be the favorite, but our crystal ball favors Murray, a seemingly ready-to-return David Johnson and the Cardinals to at least cover, if not win outright.

Dallas Wins, Covers at Home Over Minnesota

Calling this a matchup between three-loss teams is factually correct, but it undersells their play so far.

Point differential is typically a better indicator of on-field performance than win-loss records. If you use that metric, the Cowboys (plus-85) and Vikings (plus-76) are the third- and fourth-best teams in football, respectively.

Most metrics hold them in a similar regard. Dallas averages the NFL's most yards (436.8) and fifth-most points (28.4). Minnesota is 11th in scoring at 26.0, but it has gone for 28-plus points in three of its last five games. The Vikings also sit fourth in points allowed per game (17.6), just one spot ahead of the Cowboys (17.8).

The running back talent is ridiculous between Minnesota's Dalvin Cook and Dallas' Ezekiel Elliott. The Cowboys have two explosive receivers in Amari Cooper and Michael Gallup, while the Vikings probably have just one this week in Stefon Diggs, assuming Adam Thielen misses the contest.

This probably comes down to quarterback play, and both Dak Prescott and Kirk Cousins have struggled with inconsistency this season. While Cousins has been in a better groove of late, we're guessing the home crowd and high stakes bring out the best in Prescott, as he leads his team to a victory and a cover.

San Francisco Is the Winner, But Seattle Is the Bet

It looks like the football gods saved the best for last in Week 10, as the 13-game slate closes with a critical Monday night matchup between NFC West rivals.

The undefeated 49ers sport the season's final unblemished record. The Seahawks have a 7-2 mark and maybe the league's best quarterback in Russell Wilson, who has thrown for 2,505 yards, 22 touchdowns and—wait for it—just a single interception.

"He looks about as under control and collected as any quarterback in football these days, like the game has slowed down several speeds," ESPN's Bill Barnwell wrote.

This looks like the best kind of matchup when strength meets strength. Seattle's offense averages the fourth-most yards per game (395.0). San Francisco's defense surrenders fewer yards than anyone (241.0).

The Seahawks might have the MVP in Wilson. The 49ers might have the Defensive Rookie of the Year in Nick Bosa, who has electrified this unit with seven sacks, a forced fumble and an interception in his first eight games, and the Coach of the Year in Kyle Shanahan, who has transformed a 12-loss team from a year ago into an 8-0 juggernaut.

This game should be an instant classic, which is why a six-point spread seems a bit much. But the 49ers have the talent to survive a close, higher-scoring-than-you-might-think collision.