Fantasy Football Week 10: Updated Trade Value for Top 100 Players

We've hit the halfway point of the season, which means it's time to evaluate just how valuable NFL players have been in fantasy football, along with trying to project their value the rest of the way. The combination of those factors have informed this week's trade value chart.

As we do each year at this point, a player's VORP (value over replacement player) will be included next to their place on the trade chart below. The idea is to give you an idea of just how much value they have given fantasy players compared to other players at their position.

That, in turn, makes it easier to compare the fantasy value of players between different positions. But we will get into the analysis more below. For now, to the rankings!

Untouchable

1. Christian McCaffrey, RB, Carolina Panthers (17.4)

Trade Value: 12

2. Dalvin Cook, RB, Minnesota Vikings (9.7)

3. Michael Thomas, WR, New Orleans Saints (9.5)

4. Mike Evans, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8.8)

Trade Value: 11

5. Chris Godwin, WR, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7.7)

6. Cooper Kupp, WR, Los Angeles Rams (7.5)

7. Saquon Barkley, RB, New York Giants (4.8)

8. Aaron Jones, RB, Green Bay Packers (7.0)

9. Nick Chubb, RB, Cleveland Browns (5.5)

10. Ezekiel Elliott, RB, Dallas Cowboys (5.3)

Trade Value: 10

11. Tyler Lockett, WR, Seattle Seahawks (5.5)

12. Austin Hooper, TE, Atlanta Falcons (8.9)

13. Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens (7.5)

14. Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints (5.0)

15. Austin Ekeler, RB, Los Angeles Chargers (7.1)

16. Amari Cooper, WR, Dallas Cowboys (5)

Trade Value: 9

17. Julio Jones, WR, Atlanta Falcons (4.7)

18. James Conner, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers (4.4)

19. DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Houston Texans (4.2)

20. Leonard Fournette, RB, Jacksonville Jaguars (4.0)

21. David Johnson RB, Arizona Cardinals (4.0)

22. Hunter Henry, TE, Los Angeles Chargers (7.0)

23. Russell Wilson, QB, Seattle Seahawks (6.9)

24. Darren Waller, TE, Oakland Raiders (6.2)

25. Kenny Golladay, WR, Detroit Lions (3.9)

26. Julian Edelman, WR, New England Patriots (3.7)

27. Tyreek Hill, WR, Kansas City Chiefs (3.7)

Trade Value: 8

28. Deshaun Watson, QB, Houston Texans (5.9)

29. Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs (5.2)

30. George Kittle, TE, San Francisco 49ers (5.2)

31. DJ Chark, WR, Jacksonville Jaguars (3.2)

32. Josh Jacobs, RB, Oakland Raiders (3.0)

Trade Value: 7

33. Marvin Jones, WR, Detroit Lions (3.0) 

34. Evan Engram, TE, New York Giants (4.7)

35. Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys (3.8)

36. Mark Andrews, TE, Baltimore Ravens (3.6)

37. Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs (3.3)

Trade Value: 6

38. New England Patriots (11.2)

39. Zach Ertz, TE, Philadelphia Eagles (3.3)

40. T.Y. Hilton, WR, Indianapolis Colts (2.8)

41. Sterling Shepard, WR, New York Giants (2.5)

42. Mark Ingram II, RB, Baltimore Ravens (2.2)

43. Chris Carson, RB, Seattle Seahawks (2.2)

44. Matt Stafford, QB, Detroit Lions (2.8)

45. Matt Ryan, QB, Atlanta Falcons (2.2)

Trade Value: 5

46. Derrick Henry, RB, Tennessee Titans (1.9)

47. Keenan Allen, WR, Los Angeles Chargers (1.8)

48. Courtland Sutton, WR, Denver Broncos (1.8)

49. Aaron Rodgers, QB, Green Bay Packers (1.7)

50. Tevin Coleman, RB, San Francisco 49ers (1.4)

51. Le'Veon Bell, RB, New York Jets (1.3)

52. Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers (1.3)

Trade Value: 4

53. Allen Robinson, WR, Chicago Bears (1.3)

54. Tyrell Williams, WR, Oakland Raiders (1.3)

55. Phillip Lindsay, RB, Denver Broncos (1.0)

56. Stefon Diggs, WR, Minnesota Vikings (0.9)

57. Michael Gallup, WR, Dallas Cowboys (0.9)

58. John Brown, WR, Buffalo Bills (0.8)

59. Todd Gurley, RB, Los Angeles Rams (0.7)

60. Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals (0.5)

61. Terry McLaurin, Washington (0.5)

62. Sammy Watkins, WR, Kansas City Chiefs (0.5)

Trade Value: 3

63. Jason Witten, TE, Dallas Cowboys (0.5)

64. Darren Fells, TE, Houston Texans (0.4)

65. Will Fuller V, WR, Houston Texans (0.4)

66. Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons (0.3)

67. Golden Tate, WR, New York Giants (0.3)

68. Tom Brady, QB, New England Patriots (0.2)

69. Tyler Boyd, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (0.2)

70. San Francisco 49ers (5.9)

71. A.J. Green, WR, Cincinnati Bengals (n/a)

72. Devin Singletary, RB, Buffalo Bills (0)

73. James White, RB, New England Patriots (0)

74. Jameis Winston, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0)

75. Adam Thielen, WR, Minnesota Vikings (0)

76. DJ Moore, WR, Carolina Panthers (0)

77. Greg Olsen, TE, Carolina Panthers (0)

78. Pittsburgh Steelers (3.4)

79. Michael Badgley, K, Los Angeles Chargers (6.0)

Trade Value: 2

80. Marlon Mack, RB, Indianapolis Colts (-0.2)

81. Marquise Brown, WR, Baltimore Ravens (-0.3)

82. Emmanuel Sanders, WR, San Francisco 49ers (-0.5)

83. Calvin Ridley, WR, Atlanta Falcons (-0.6)

84. David Montgomery, RB, Chicago Bears (-0.9)

85. Odell Beckham Jr., WR, Cleveland Browns (-0.7)

86. Jamaal Williams, RB, Green Bay Packers (-0.8)

87. Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills (-0.6)

88. Jordan Howard, RB, Philadelphia Eagles (-1.0)

89. Melvin Gordon, RB, Los Angeles Chargers (-1.0)

90. DK Metcalf, WR, Seattle Seahawks (-1.0)

91. JuJu Smith-Schuster, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.6)

92. Robert Woods, WR, Los Angeles Rams (-1.2)

93. Miles Sanders, RB, Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5)

94. Sony Michel, RB, New England Patriots (-2.8)

95. Carlos Hyde, RB, Houston Texans (-3.1)

96. Joe Mixon, RB, Cincinnati Bengals (-3.4)

97. Ronald Jones II, RB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.8)

98. Adrian Peterson, RB, Washington (-4.9)

99. Latavius Murray, RB, New Orleans Saints (-0.4)

100. Gerald Everett, TE, Los Angeles Rams (-0.5)

Analysis

Brian Blanco/Associated Press

VORP represents how many more points a player in a 10-team PPR league scores over the top replacement player at their position per week, or a player who shouldn't be started based on season rankings to that point.

So for the quarterback, tight end, defense/special teams and kicker positions, every player is compared to the No. 11 player at the position based on average points per week, since that player in theory shouldn't be started with 10 better options on the board. For running backs, players are compared to the No. 21 option at the position, since each team has to start two running backs.

For wide receivers, however, we compare to the No. 31 player, accounting for the option of using a wideout at the flex position. After going through the top 20 players at running back and wide receiver, the next 10 best players based on average points scored per week were all wideouts. Therefore, in 10-team PPR leagues, 30 wideouts should theoretically be started every week.

Christian McCaffrey, for instance, scores a whopping 17.4 fantasy points more per week than Devin Singletary or James White, giving players who utilized him at running back a huge advantage over players using replacement-level options.

Here's another way of looking at it: The average quarterback scores more points per week than the average tight end. But you have to start a tight end each week, so you want to get as much value out of that position as possible. So while Tom Brady (18.2) scores more overall fantasy points per week than Austin Hooper (17.9), it's easier to find quarterbacks to replicate Brady's output than it is to find tight ends getting anywhere near what Hooper is producing this year.

That's why Hooper is so valuable—you are gaining a huge edge over your opponent in the tight end matchup with him on your roster. It's unlikely Brady will ever give you a similar edge this season.

We can learn a lot from judging just how much value a player offers over a replacement option at their position. For example, over the first half of the season, the Patriots defense and special teams has been the second-most valuable commodity in all of fantasy. You've gotten more value by starting that defense compared to a replacement-level defense (11.2 more points, to be precise) than you have gotten starting any player outside of McCaffrey.

But there is always some noise in numbers. For one, trade value isn't just about looking back at results, it's also about projecting value going forward. And using the Pats defense as an example, it sure seems likely they will be unable to replicate such incredible value.

Keep in mind that in their first nine games, they faced the New York Jets twice along with the Miami Dolphins once, New York Giants, Cleveland Browns and Washington. The Dolphins are tanking, the Jets and Giants have young quarterbacks learning the ropes and Washington and Cleveland are messes. 

Those five teams are all ranked 27th or worse in fantasy points given up to opposing defenses, per Yahoo Sports. After New England's Week 10 bye, meanwhile, they face the Philadelphia Eagles, Dallas Cowboys, Houston Texans and Kansas City Chiefs. They are primed for a regression. 

So when calculating trade value, we have to consider that level of context. You have to constantly evaluate how injuries could factor into a player's value or your team's needs. Even your own preferences matter. Can you live with boom-or-bust players or prefer consistent players who perhaps have less of a ceiling? Are you OK rolling with the same lineup each week, or do you like a deep team to play the matchups?

How you answer those questions will affect trade value as well.

So VORP and this trade value chart function as tools, but it's on you to analyze any deal that comes your way. There are players who have the ability to be elite in the second half. I would never sell on Saquon Barkley, Patrick Mahomes or Zach Ertz, for instance, even if they haven't quite met expectations this year (unless I were in a keeper or dynasty league and tanking for draft picks).

On the other hand, confidence in Odell Beckham Jr. should have waned significantly, in part because quarterback Baker Mayfield has regressed. Not long ago, the suggestion would have been to buy low. Now the price would have to be incredibly low to pull the trigger.

I'm out on Joe Mixon and JuJu Smith-Schuster too. Players like David Montgomery and Melvin Gordon, meanwhile, have done just enough lately to pique interest. These things wax and wane.

Another thing to keep in mind is that an RB3 or WR4 are often more valuable than a TE2 or QB2 because of the flex position. It's much more likely as the bye weeks continue that you will need to rely on your depth at those positions, whereas you are likely only utilizing your QB2 or TE2 once per season. So while the top-end quarterbacks and tight ends hold much more value than they often get credit for, their positional value falls off a cliff.

Keep that in mind when debating whether to include that RB4 or WR4 as a sweetener in a deal. Those players may not have top-end value, but you are more likely to need them in a pinch than a backup quarterback or tight end.