NFL Picks Week 10: Game-by-Game Advice for Current Vegas Spreads

The Week 9 trend of so many victorious home sides likely will not extend into Week 10. 

Last week, home sides went 11-3, with San Francisco and Dallas the only true road winners; Houston was listed as the road team for its London win over Jacksonville. 

Currently five road teams are favored, and a handful of underdogs are capable of winning outright. 

Baltimore opened as the largest road favorite, but Indianapolis and New Orleans boast bigger advantages on the spread in their home contests. 

Buffalo, Detroit and Minnesota are on the wrong end of small lines at the moment and they all have the potential to win outright.

The Los Angeles Chargers could be the first road side to win in Week 10, as they try to follow up their home triumph over Green Bay with a win in Oakland on Thursday. 

Week 10 Spread Advice

Odds via Caesars and OddsChecker. All times ET.

Los Angeles Chargers (-1) at Oakland (Thursday, 8:20 p.m., Fox/NFL Network) 

The Chargers' Week 9 win over Green Bay could create more wagers in their favor. The line for Thursday's AFC West clash opened in favor of Oakland, but it quickly switched to the Chargers. 

Three of Los Angeles' four road contests have been determined by three points or less, with the lone exception a 20-point win over Miami. 

Oakland is 2-1 on home soil with one-possession victories over Denver and Detroit. Its only loss at the Oakland Coliseum came to Kansas City in Week 2. 

Four of the Raiders' last five games have been determined by one score, while the Chargers participated in four one-score contests before beating Green Bay by 15. 

With the margins expected to be slim, Oakland's run defense could make the difference. The Raiders have allowed two 100-yard rushing games, while the Chargers are coming off their first triple-digit ground output since Week 2. 

Detroit at Chicago (-2.5) (Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS) 

Since Week 5, Chicago and Detroit have combined to go 1-7. 

In their last two defeats, the Bears have scored 30 points and they struggled with 164 total yards in Week 9. 

At least the Lions are still producing on offense, as they enter Soldier Field off a 473-yard output in Oakland. Even if they lose, the Lions could still cover, as their four road contests have been determined by an average of 2.8 points. 

The best pick could be the Lions outright since they have shown more offensive promise in recent weeks. 

Matthew Stafford has three straight performances over 340 passing yards, while Mitchell Trubisky is coming off a 10-of-21, 125-yard outing against a Philadelphia secondary that was gashed by most opponents. 

Baltimore (-10) at Cincinnati (Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS) 

In their first meeting this season, Cincinnati sneaked in a backdoor cover with a late fourth-quarter score at M&T Bank Stadium in Week 6. 

The 0-8 Bengals may be able to catch Baltimore off guard if they open strong in quarterback Ryan Finley's first start in the league. 

Baltimore is coming off an emotional home victory over New England, but it only scored six second-half points in its first meeting with the Bengals. 

It is worth noting the average margin of victory in Baltimore's eight games is 14.4, and it has won back-to-back games by double digits over Seattle and New England. Also, Cincinnati has lost by 10 or more in two of three home contests.

If Lamar Jackson and Co. continue to play at a high level, the Ravens should roll through their AFC North foe. 

Buffalo at Cleveland (-2.5) (Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS) 

There is no reason to trust the Cleveland Browns right now. 

Freddie Kitchens' team is on a four-game losing streak in which it produced 63 points. Three of those contests occurred against playoff contenders San Francisco, Seattle and New England, and with Buffalo coming to town in Week 10, a similar fate awaits the Browns. 

In their six victories, the Bills allowed a single opponent over 20 points. In Week 9, they held Washington to 243 yards and nine points. 

Since the line has the potential to move in Buffalo's direction, we recommend hopping on the Bills now before the value goes down.

Atlanta at New Orleans (-13) (Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox) 

If Atlanta is going to show anything positive, it would be out of the bye week against a divisional foe. The Falcons have suffered five double-digit defeats and allowed 31.3 points per game. 

In its last three contests, New Orleans have outscored opponents 80-40 and held Jacksonville and Arizona to single digits. 

Based on those numbers, Atlanta faces a tough task to even cover at the Superdome versus a fresh Drew Brees off the bye. 

Each of the Saints' last three regular-season home wins over Atlanta have been by double digits. A year ago, Brees threw four touchdown passes in a 14-point home triumph. 

If Atlanta covers, it would be through a late touchdown, but that might not happen against New Orleans' defense. 

New York Giants (-2.5) at New York Jets (Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox) 

Both MetLife Stadium-based teams strum up little confidence. 

The mystique of Daniel Jones, which some could argue was falsely hyped after wins over Tampa Bay and Washington, has worn off into a harsh reality that the Giants are nowhere close to a playoff team. The Jets appear to be in an even worse predicament with Sam Darnold continuing to make bad decisions that lead to turnovers. 

In their last three games, the Giants and Jets have combined for 17 giveaways, and we expect more of the same Sunday. 

The Giants have to be the lean for bettors since Jones has displayed more promise than Darnold. 

The rookie out of Duke has six touchdown passes and two interceptions in the last three games, while the second-year signal-caller from USC has three scores and eight picks in that span. 

Arizona at Tampa Bay (-5.5) (Sunday, 1 p.m., Fox) 

The Cardinals and Buccaneers may not have the best records, but they have exciting offenses that could produce one of the more entertaining Week 10 clashes. 

In the last five contests, Kyler Murray has averaged 231.6 passing yards, and more importantly, he has not thrown an interception. 

This year's No. 1 overall draft pick has received support from David Johnson, Chase Edmonds and Kenyan Drake, though only the latter is healthy. The Cardinals have eclipsed the 100-yard rushing mark on seven occasions. 

Tampa Bay's offense has averaged 60.3 points, and its three home contests produced 174 points. 

The Buccaneers' two victories were by six and 15 points, respectively, while the Cardinals have played in five one-possession games and covered versus San Francisco in Week 9. 

In Week 8, the Cardinals remained within striking distance of New Orleans for three quarters. Now that it is facing a lesser opponent, Kliff Kingsbury's side could explode for 30-40 points and possibly win outright. 

Kansas City (-4) at Tennessee (Sunday, 1 p.m., CBS)

The line for Kansas City's trip to Tennessee is off the board in some places due to Patrick Mahomes' status. According to Vegas Insider, the Chiefs are a four-point favorite. That number could rise if the quarterback is deemed fit to play.

Kansas City head coach Andy Reid did not reveal Monday if Mahomes was ready to start, per Herbie Teope of the Kansas City Star.

"It looks like he's moving around better," he said. "That's all I can tell you. I don't know all the medical terms, but he looked better this week than he did last week. Is he ready? I can't tell you that. I mean, I'm not sure we'll know that until we get there. Who knows? But we'll see how it goes here. I'll let the doctors handle all this." 

Even if Mahomes does not play, the Chiefs proved in Week 9 they can win with Matt Moore at the helm. 

No matter who starts, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce could have success against a Tennessee defense that allowed 823 passing yards in the last three games. 

The Titans won their last two home games, but they struggled at Nissan Stadium against playoff contenders Indianapolis and Buffalo, so we would advise staying away from the underdog here. 

Miami at Indianapolis (-11.5) (Sunday, 4:05 p.m., CBS) 

Miami is in a better position to cover at Lucas Oil Stadium than it was 48 hours ago. The Dolphins are coming off their first win of 2019, and the Colts could be without Jacoby Brissett. 

According to ESPN.com's Mike Wells, Brissett has a MCL sprain, and the Colts will play it by ear determining his status for Sunday. 

Even with Brissett under center, the Colts have not blown away opponents in their five victories. 

In fact, each of their wins have been by seven points or fewer, so the Dolphins may be the better bet to cover. 

Carolina at Green Bay (-5) (Sunday, 4:25 p.m., Fox) 

Carolina enters Lambeau Field with wins in five of its last six contests. In the last two games, Christian McCaffrey recorded 263 rushing yards on 38 carries, and he could build on that in Week 10. 

Green Bay allowed Oakland and the Los Angeles Chargers to run for over 150 yards in Weeks 7 and 9, so another matchup with a premier running back could damage its front seven. 

However, the Packers are a much better team at home. They have outscored opponents 140-112 and have a pair of double-digit wins. 

Carolina is an intriguing underdog, but Aaron Rodgers has had success on home soil after losses. In 2018, Rodgers went 4-1 in home games following a defeat, with three of those victories were by 10 or more.

Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at Pittsburgh (Sunday, 4:25 p.m., Fox) 

No one expected Pittsburgh to rally from its 1-4 start, and that alone makes it an interesting home underdog. But the three wins achieved by Mike Tomlin's side since Week 6 occurred against the Chargers, Dolphins and Colts without Brissett. 

The Los Angeles Rams come into Heinz Field on a two-game winning run in which they allowed 10 points each to Atlanta and Cincinnati. 

In those wins, Sean McVay's team produced 851 yards, and that production could continue versus a Pittsburgh unit that conceded 328 to the Colts. 

Against other squads, the Steelers may have an advantage in the run game, as they held three of their last five foes under 100 rushing yards. However, the Rams defeated the Falcons and Bengals by totaling 188 yards on the ground. 

Minnesota at Dallas (-3) (Sunday, 8:20 p.m., NBC)  

Dallas owns an average margin of victory of 19.8 points. If you believe the Cowboys will defeat Minnesota, you have to hammer them to cover. 

In its previous two wins, Jason Garrett's side produced 831 yards and 74 points versus Philadelphia and the New York Giants. The high offensive output could continue versus the Vikings, who allowed over 375 yards in three of their last four contests. 

Unless Mike Zimmer's squad contains Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott, it is hard to believe the NFC East leader will stumble at home. 

Seattle at San Francisco (-6.5) (Monday, 8:15 p.m., ESPN) 

Defense should make the difference Monday night. 

Since its Week 4 bye, San Francisco allowed one opponent to reach over 250 total yards. In that span, the 49ers held four of their five foes to under 15 points, so Arizona's 25-point output is more of an outlier than an end to a trend. 

In just the last two games, Seattle conceded 928 yards to Atlanta and Tampa Bay. If it can't find a way to stop below-.500 teams, it is hard to believe it can silence the last undefeated team in the NFL. 

Jimmy Garoppolo is coming off his best performance of the campaign, as he lit up Arizona for 317 passing yards and four scores. 

Russell Wilson threw for five scores in Week 9, but his numbers will be much harder to replicate than Garoppolo's since he is going up against a much better defense. Unless the Seahawks D turns things around, the 49ers should find a way to pull away in the second half. 

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.

Statistics obtained from Pro Football Reference.