NFL Predictions Week 3: Picks and Projections for Top Underdogs' Upset Bids

The Week 3 NFL schedule looks a bit like a college slate. Amazingly, two games feature a spread over 20 points, and 12 of the 16 home teams are favored. 

There's usually more parity in the NFL, creating few double-digit spreads and plenty of home underdogs. But despite the unusual odds this week, by Monday morning, it's likely the results will look similar to a usual weekend in the NFL. 

So which underdogs have a chance to pull out a victory? Let's take a look at the schedule pick some upsets. 

NFL Week 3 Odds

Picks against the spread are in bold

Tennessee (-1.5) at Jacksonville

Atlanta at Indianapolis (-1.5)

Baltimore at Kansas City (-6.5) 

Cincinnati at Buffalo (-6) 

New York Jets at New England (-23) 

Denver at Green Bay (-8) 

Detroit at Philadelphia (-6.5) 

Miami at Dallas (-21.5) 

Oakland at Minnesota (-9) 

Carolina (-2.5) at Arizona 

New York Giants at Tampa Bay (-6.5) 

Houston at Los Angeles Chargers (-3.5)

Pittsburgh at San Francisco (-6.5)

New Orleans at Seattle (-4) 

Los Angeles Rams (-3) at Cleveland 

Chicago (-4) at Washington 

Upset Picks of the Week

Atlanta Falcons at Indianapolis Colts (-2.5)

The Indianapolis Colts are coming off their first win in the post-Andrew Luck era, knocking off the Tennessee Titans 19-17 in Week 2. In Week 3, however, they'll likely face a tougher test from the Atlanta Falcons, who are coming off an impressive win of their own over the Philadelphia Eagles. 

Despite some struggles on offense, the Colts' defense allowed them to hang around and eventually pull off the comeback win over Tennessee. Unfortunately, the Falcons offense won't be as easy to contain. 

Through Week 2, Matt Ryan has led the Falcons to the league's ninth-ranked passing offense. Behind Luck's replacement Jacoby Brissett, Indianapolis ranks dead last. 

Unless defensive coordinator Matt Eberflus is able to stifle the Falcons offense, it will likely be difficult for Brissett and Indy's offense to keep pace. 

Prediction: Falcons 24, Colts 20

New York Giants at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5)

The Eli Manning era is officially over, and it's time for Daniel Jones to take over as the starting quarterback for the New York Giants. 

Despite overwhelmingly negative reactions to the Giants' first-round selection of Jones, at least in the short term, this transition should be a step in the right direction for New York. 

Jones is a more mobile quarterback than Manning at this stage of his career—he rushed for 1,323 yards and 17 touchdowns during his career at Duke. The threat of Jones' legs alone should give a boost to New York's offense. 

Initially, the Giants will also have the element of surprise. Due to Jones' mobility, there should be some new wrinkles to the playbook we haven't seen from a Giants offense in decades. That will make New York more difficult for defensive coordinators to game plan for over Jones' first few starts. 

In the long run, the league may catch up to Jones, but there is a good chance he initially provides this offense the spark it needs to pull off a few upsets. 

Prediction: Giants 24, Buccaneers 23

Los Angeles Rams (-3) at Cleveland Browns

Coming off a win on Monday Night Football against the New York Jets, the Cleveland Browns are back in prime time, hosting the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday night. While the Browns are underdogs, this looks like one of the potential upsets of the week.

Jared Goff's home/road splits from the 2018 season should have the Rams concerned:

Home: 322 yards per game, 22 TD, 3 INT

Road: 244 yards per game, 10 TD, 9 INT

In Week 1 at Carolina, Goff led the Rams to a victory, but his road struggles continued as he completed just 59 percent of his passes for 186 yards. 

On Sunday night, Cleveland will not be a normal road environment, either. Cleveland is hosting its first Sunday or Monday night game since 2015.

With a rare opportunity to attend a prime time game, plus the high expectations for their squad, the fans in Cleveland will likely create a more substantial home-field advantage than a typical NFL game. If Goff can't quiet the crowd early, his road struggles may continue. 

Prediction: Browns 28, Rams 24