NFL Picks Week 3: Advice for Current Vegas Odds, Spreads and Over-Under Lines

The point spread against the Miami Dolphins continues to grow with the week. In Week 3, Dallas is favored by 21 points against the struggling side out of the AFC East. 

A week ago, Miami was an 18-point underdog at home and proceeded to lose by 43 points. The Dolphins have been outscored 102-10 by Baltimore and New England.

Although it may be hard for some to put trust in Dallas covering a three-touchdown line, the evidence from the first two weeks suggests it could do it with ease. 

The largest over-under total of Week 3 has been assigned to Baltimore and Kansas City. Initially, you may think scoring 55 combined points will be easy to beat the over, but if you take a closer look, it is not that simple of a bet to make.

NFL Week 3 Schedule and Odds

All Times ET

Odds via Caesars and VegasInsider; projections against the spread in bold

Thursday, September 19 

Tennessee (-1.5) at Jacksonville (Over/Under: 40) (8:20 p.m., NFL Network) 

Sunday, September 22

Atlanta at Indianapolis (-2.5) (O/U: 47.5) (1 p.m., CBS) 

Baltimore at Kansas City (-6.5) (O/U: 54.5) (1 p.m., CBS) 

Cincinnati at Buffalo (-6) (O/U: 44) (1 p.m., CBS) 

New York Jets at New England (-18) (1 p.m., CBS) 

Denver at Green Bay (-8) (O/U: 43) (1 p.m., Fox) 

Detroit at Philadelphia (-7.5) (O/U: 48) (1 p.m., Fox) 

Miami at Dallas (-21) (O/U: 47.5) (1 p.m., Fox) 

Oakland at Minnesota (-7.5) (O/U: 42) (1 p.m., Fox) 

Carolina (-2.5) at Arizona (O/U: 46.5) (4:05 p.m., Fox) 

New York Giants at Tampa Bay (-6.5) (O/U: 48) (4:05 p.m., Fox) 

Houston at Los Angeles Chargers (-3) (O/U: 47.5) (4:25 p.m., CBS) 

Pittsburgh at San Francisco (-7) (O/U: 44.5) (4:25 p.m., CBS) 

New Orleans at Seattle (-4.5) (O/U:44.5) (4:25 p.m., CBS) 

Los Angeles Rams (-2.5) at Cleveland (O/U: 51) (8:20 p.m., NBC)

Monday, September 23

Chicago (-4.5) at Washington (O/U: 41.5) (8:15 p.m., ESPN) 

Spread Advice

Miami at Dallas (-21) 

Mark Tenally/Associated Press

Given how poor Miami has played, you can't put any betting trust in it. 

The Dolphins have put up 10 points on 384 total yards while conceding a league-worst 1,014 yards. 

Life could get worse for Brian Flores' team after it dealt Minkah Fitzpatrick to Pittsburgh Monday. The second-year man out of Alabama had 12 tackles, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery in two games. 

Without Fitzpatrick, the Dolphins could be torched by Dak Prescott and his collection of wide receivers. The Dallas quarterback has 674 passing yards, seven touchdowns and a completion percentage of 82.3. 

Ezekiel Elliott is coming off a 111-yard outing versus Washington, and he has reached triple digits in five of his last nine regular-season games. 

It may be tough for Miami to do anything on the ground, as it totaled 63 yards, while Dallas limited Washington to 47 on the ground Sunday. 

Relying on Ryan Fitzpatrick or Josh Rosen is not a great strategy since they have combined to throw six interceptions. 

If Dallas converts turnovers into points and receives the same output from Elliott and Prescott, it should roll to 3-0 with a victory of more than three scores. 

Cincinnati at Buffalo (-6) 

Bill Kostroun/Associated Press

Buffalo has a good chance of heading into Week 4's meeting with New England undefeated. 

The Bills open their home slate against Cincinnati, which has conceded the fourth-most points of NFL defenses. 

Additionally, the Bengals are coming off a loss to San Francisco in which they gave up 572 total yards. 

The Josh Allen-led Buffalo offense has quietly racked up over 370 yards in each of its first two contests versus the New York Giants and New York Jets. 

The Bills defense could be able to contain Andy Dalton's impact. They held their first two foes to 396 passing yards. 

Based off the Week 2 results, Sean McDermott's side could cover the six-point spread at New Era Field. That would be a change of pace for the Bills, as three of their four home wins in 2018 were by one possession. 

Until Cincinnati figures out how to get stops on a consistent basis, it is hard to see it being competitive in most games. 

Allen has the Bills trending in the right direction, and if they continue to play well, we could be talking about them in the AFC playoff hunt. 

Over/Under Advice

Tennessee at Jacksonville (Under 40) 

Mark Zaleski/Associated Press

Do not expect too many fireworks Thursday night at TIAA Bank Field. 

Tennessee is coming off a 17-point performance in a loss to Indianapolis, while Jacksonville racked up 12 in a defeat to Houston. 

The AFC South rivals combined for 54 points in two meetings in 2018, with 39 of those coming in a Thursday night matchup in December. 

The under 40-point total would continue the trend of low-scoring Thursday games, after the first two in 2019 produced 34 and 13, respectively. 

In addition, the performances of both offenses do not inspire confidence in the over hitting. 

Marcus Mariota has not hit the 250-yard mark through the air, and he has been sacked on eight occasions. He totaled 262 passing yards versus the Jaguars in 2018. 

In his first NFL start, Gardner Minshew II led the Jaguars to one touchdown, but that did not occur until the fourth quarter. 

Since neither signal-caller has produced points on a consistent basis, we expect both teams to struggle to find the end zone. 

Baltimore at Kansas City (Under 54) 

Charlie Riedel/Associated Press

The gut reaction to the Ravens-Chiefs total could be to bet the over because of how strong both offenses have looked. However, their defenses should have a say in a game that may trend toward the under. 

Baltimore has given up 27 points in two weeks, while the Chiefs have limited opponents to 36. The two units have combined for seven turnovers. 

Last season's clash at Arrowhead Stadium finished with 51 points, which is an indicator the total may be a bit high. Sure, both offenses have looked great in two weeks, but those performances have come against franchises not expected to qualify for the postseason. 

The Ravens rank second in total yards conceded and have the best rushing defense, as they let up 41 yards. 

If Baltimore continues to stifle the run, it could force Patrick Mahomes to beat it without any ground support. The third-year quarterback proved he could do that in Week 2, as Oakland held the Chiefs to 31 rushing yards, but that contest only had 38 points. 

In 2018, the Ravens held six of their eight road foes under 30 points, while Kansas City did not allow an opponent to score over 30 at home. 

While the over is tempting because Lamar Jackson and Mahomes have big-play potential, the trends suggest the under is the best wager. 

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90.

Statistics obtained from Pro Football Reference.