Reigning MVP Patrick Mahomes, Chiefs Dominate Jaguars After Nick Foles' Injury

Walking into the 2019 season, nearly every NFL analyst and fantasy expert told you not to expect a repeat performance from Patrick Mahomes.  

It appears Mahomes has other plans.

The reigning league MVP picked up right where he left off, throwing for 378 yards and three touchdowns to lead the Kansas City Chiefs to a 40-26 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars on Sunday.

Sammy Watkins hauled in nine passes for a career-high 198 yards and three touchdowns, taking over as Mahomes' top target after Tyreek Hill left with a shoulder injury. 

The Jaguars also lost Nick Foles to an injury to his shoulder, which was determined to be a broken clavicle, per Field Yates of ESPN. He was replaced by rookie sixth-round pick Gardner Minshew, who threw for 275 yards and two touchdowns in a stellar debut. 

Watkins Needs to Earn Trust if Hill Misses Time

2016: 28 REC, 430 YDS, 2 TD

2017: 39 REC, 593 YDS, 8 TD

2018: 40 REC, 519 YDS, 3 TD

Over 33 games spread over three seasons, Watkins has 107 receptions for 1,542 yards and 13 touchdowns. In 2018, DeAndre Hopkins had 115 receptions for 1,572 yards and 11 touchdowns.

What we're saying here is it takes more than three full seasons of Sammy Watkins to equal one DeAndre Hopkins. Watkins' circumstances have changed over the course of the last three years, and he's certainly in the best offense he's ever played in with the Chiefs...the same Chiefs roster he was with a year ago.

Prorate Watkins' numbers over the course of a 16-game schedule, and Watkins posts 64 catches for 830 yards and five touchdowns. Not exactly barnburner numbers.

In one week this season, Watkins matched his touchdown total from a year ago and put himself on pace for a cool 3,168 receiving yards. With Tyreek Hill's injury status in question, it's fair to wonder just how far Watkins can soar as a No. 1 target in a Mahomes offense. 

Suffice it to say the previous 33 games of data—and Watkins' two previous seasons before that—make it hard to believe he can continue to produce at an elite level. Watkins had just two 100-yard receiving games all of 2018, and he's hit that mark in back-to-back games just twice in his entire career. Couple that with his long injury history, and it's hard to believe the Chiefs can continue at this offensive pace without Hill.

Travis Kelce will probably put up better numbers than his three-for-88 on Sunday, but the Chiefs lack depth down their receiving corps. Damien Williams managed just 39 yards on six dump-off receptions, and DeMarcus Robinson was the only wide receiver other than Watkins or Hill to catch a pass.

Gardner Minshew Looks Like a Draft-Day Steal

Nick Foles' first season as the Jaguars starting quarterback lasted all of eight passes before he was injured throwing a 35-yard touchdown pass to DJ Chark. ESPN's Adam Schefter reported Foles has a broken clavicle, which will undoubtedly put him on the shelf for weeks if not the remainder of the year.

The Jaguars signed Foles to shore up their quarterback spot after years of toiling with Blake Bortles and believed he'd help put them back in the AFC South title race. All of those hopes now fall on Minshew, who looked about as good as one could possibly expect given the circumstances.

The rookie sixth-rounder threw for 275 yards and two touchdowns while completing 22 of his 25 passes. He began his NFL career with 13 straight completions and consistently made smart, well-timed throws underneath and even hit on a couple big plays. Chark took a Minshew pass 69 yards down the field as part of a 146-yard afternoon.

Minshew is just the ninth quarterback in NFL history to throw for 275 yards and two touchdowns in his NFL debut. Among modern quarterbacks, he joins a list that includes Carson Wentz, Robert Griffin III and Cam Newton.

While the Chiefs defense is certainly not among the NFL's best, this was a really good quarterbacking performance by a guy who expected to hold a clipboard. Minshew's entire career has been based on chance encounters, as he was expected to become a graduate transfer after his career at East Carolina before coming to Washington State and soaring in one season under Mike Leach.

It's only one game, but there's real diamond-in-the-rough potential here based on this one start. 

What's Next?

The Chiefs continue on the road to face off against the Oakland Raiders next Sunday. The Jaguars hit the road to play the Houston Texans.