NFL Predictions Week 1: Picks and Odds Advice for Opening Schedule

It's finally here, folks. The first NFL Sunday of the 2019 season has arrived.

Though the offseason had more than enough storylines and drama to keep most football fans entertained, there's no substitute for meaningful games. This is particularly true for those who enjoy a bit of side action—playing the over/under on where Kyler Murray gets drafted isn't the same as betting on a prime-time matchup.

That action is back too, and with 15 games remaining in Week 1, there's plenty of it. Here you will find a look at those games, the latest lines and over/unders and some tips for Week 1.

Week 1 Lines, Over/Unders and Predictions

Los Angeles Rams (-2, o/u 49.5) at Carolina Panthers: Los Angeles: 30-28

Washington Redskins (+10, o/u 44.5) at Philadelphia Eagles: Philadelphia 33-24

Buffalo Bills (+2.5, o/u 41) at New York Jets: Buffalo 24-22

Atlanta Falcons (+3.5, o/u 47) at Minnesota Vikings: Minnesota 27-25

Baltimore Ravens (-7, o/u 40.5) at Miami Dolphins: Baltimore 27-17

Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5, o/u 50.5) at Jacksonville Jaguars: Kansas City 26-24

Tennessee Titans (+5.5, o/u 44 at Cleveland Browns: Cleveland 28-25

Indianapolis Colts (+6.5, o/u 44.5) at Los Angeles Chargers: Chargers 30-24

Cincinnati Bengals (+9.5, o/u 44.5) at Seattle Seahawks: Seattle 30-17

San Francisco 49ers (+1, o/u 51) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Tampa Bay 27-24

New York Giants (+7, o/u 45.5) at Dallas Cowboys: Dallas 26-20

Detroit Lions (-3, o/u 46) at Arizona Cardinals: Detroit 22-19

Pittsburgh Steelers (+5.5, o/u 49) at New England Patriots: Pittsburgh 30-28

Houston Texans (+7, o/u 52.5) at New Orleans Saints (Monday): New Orleans 31-27

Denver Broncos (-2.5, o/u 42) at Oakland Raiders (Monday): Oakland 24-20

All odds are from Caesars.

Be Wary of Large Line Favorites

Large lines exist for a reason. They are there to entice you to take the underdog. The other side should be approached with caution, especially in Week 1. We still don't know how good any of these teams are.

There are two big lines this gameweek—the Philadelphia Eagles and Seattle Seahawks are giving more than nine points. On paper, these appear to be relatively safe picks. Both teams are playoff contenders, both are at home and both are playing opponents lacking keep players.

The Cincinnati Bengals will be without wideout A.J. Green. The Washington Redskins won't have starting left tackle Trent Williams, who continues to be away from the team.

Even if they dominate on the field, however, the Eagles and Seahawks may not pile on the points. There's going to be a lot of sloppy football in Week 1—Thursday's game between the Chicago Bears and Green Bay Packers is a prime example—because more and more players are skipping the bulk of the preseason.

Factors like poor execution and poor red-zone efficiency could have the Eagles beating their NFC East rivals by three field goals instead of three touchdowns. It's tough to pick Philadelphia minus-10 anyway because divisional familiarity is a factor. Yes, the Eagles beat the Redskins by double digits twice last season, but that was after Washington lost both Alex Smith and Colt McCoy at quarterback—McCoy was injured in the first matchup.

Seattle is a slightly more favorable option, as the Bengals have traveled across the country for the game, are beginning a new era with a new head coach and will have to contend with new Seattle pass-rushers like Ziggy Ansah and Jadeveon Clowney.

This is still dicey play, though, because we don't know how Zac Taylor's offense is going to function. Cincinnati could well surprise and hang with the Seahawks for four full quarters.

If you're looking at favorites in Week 1, smaller lines are the way to go.

Don't Expect Low Scoring to Be a Leaguewide Trend

Charles Rex Arbogast/Associated Press

It bears repeating that there will be some sloppy football in Week 1. In many cases, these games are going to resemble preseason contests. However, this doesn't mean that every game will end in a 10-3 score, as Thursday's did.

Poor execution can happen on defense too, which is why it isn't wise to simply play the under on every game. One busted play can cause the score to reach the over.

Be particularly careful when extremely low over/unders are involved. Consider the big-play potential of the players involved.

The early matchup between the Buffalo Bills and the New York Jets, for example, has an over/under of just 41. While it should largely be a defensive struggle, there are some players who can produce long scoring plays out of nowhere. One long run from Jets back Le'Veon Bell and one deep strike from Bills quarterback Josh Allen could quickly have 14 points on the board.

There isn't a lot of offensive star power in this game, but guys like Bell, Robby Anderson, Robert Foster and John Brown have loads of quick-strike capability.

The Indianapolis Colts and Los Angeles Chargers game is another matchup where playing the under could be a mistake. Yes, the Colts are without star quarterback Andrew Luck, but they have spent the offseason building their offense around Jacoby Brissett.

The Chargers, meanwhile, won't have standout safety Derwin James on the back end. One quick-hitter from T.Y. Hilton or Marlon Mack could put pressure on L.A.'s offense and keep the score trending toward the over.

Don't be afraid to take the over on some higher over/unders, either. The New Orleans Saints and Houston Texans matchup, for example, is loaded with offensive playmakers. Sure, it could be sloppy, but it could still turn into a shootout.

Pay Attention to Who's Playing and How Much

Be sure to stay informed on player injuries, absences and projected roles up until you make your final decision. This may seem like common sense, but we have all heard a disheartened friend say something along the lines of "man, if I'd have known Player X was only gonna get five carries, I wouldn't have picked them."

For the Dallas Cowboys and New York Giants matchup, for example, it's good to know that star running back Ezekiel Elliott is only expected to see 20 to 25 snaps in the game.

This is still a significant role. However, every time Elliott isn't on the field, it allows New York to keep the game closer.

Eagles wide receiver Alshon Jeffery has been limited with a biceps injury. If he can't play or sees a small role, Philadelphia's chances of a blowout win further decrease.

Is it common sense? Yes, but an informed bettor is a better one.