NFL Predictions Week 1: Picks and Projections for Top Upsets on the Schedule

With most Americans not working Monday on Labor Day and the NFL making its triumphant return Thursday, this week is one to be celebrated. While time seemed to stretch on agonizingly after the New England Patriots and St. Louis Rams took their last snaps in Super Bowl LIII, our long nightmare is finally over. 

The new season brings tidings of joy, intrigue and drama. It's no coincidence that most of the matchups we've pegged as upset specials in the projections below involve a team with a new head coach, a new quarterback or, if you're the Arizona Cardinals, both. Eight teams hired new head coaches for the 2019 season, along with 17 offensive coordinators and nine defensive coordinators. That's a lot of change. 

This preseason, more than most, felt especially useless when it came to getting to know anything about these teams and their new systems, from Green Bay to Arizona to Oakland. So Week 1 will be especially rewarding as we finally get a peek behind the curtain of what's truly making these teams tick. 

With all that being said, picks and projections for Week 1 are a tricky exercise. After taking into account the front-office and roster changes, last season's performance, and training camp and preseason showings, these are the teams we think will emerge victorious in Week 1, with three upsets to keep an eye on. 

Week 1 Picks

Thursday, Sept. 5

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (-3): Packers 21-17

Sunday, Sept. 8

Kansas City Chiefs (-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars: Chiefs 28-17

Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5): Vikings 24-21

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (-5.5): Browns 21-14

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-3): Jets 21-14

Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) at Miami Dolphins: Ravens 24-10

Washington Redskins at Philadelphia Eagles (-9.5): Eagles 30-13

Los Angeles Rams (-3) at Carolina Panthers: Rams 28-17

Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5): Chargers 27-17

Cincinnati Bengals at Seattle Seahawks (-9.5): Seahawks 28-14

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-7): Cowboys 30-10

San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (even): 24-20

Detroit Lions (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals: Cardinals 20-14

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (-5.5): Patriots 30-28

Monday, Sept. 9

Houston Texans at New Orleans Saints (-7): Saints 34-24

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (-1): Broncos 24-21

Breaking Down Top Upset Projections

Nam Y. Huh/Associated Press

Packers 21, Bears 17

The Green Bay Packers offense remains a giant question mark under new head coach Matt LaFleur, with very little clarification coming in a vanilla preseason showing after few starters took the field. Meanwhile, the Chicago Bears have what will quite possibly be the best defense in football, and they're playing at home to open the season. 

So why do the Packers get the upset nod here?

The short answer is also the most obvious one: Aaron Rodgers is healthy.

That was the case this time last year against the Bears, until, of course, it wasn't, but even a hobbled Rodgers was able to lead his team back and eke out the Week 1 victory. As long as the Packers have Rodgers in the game, a top NFL receiver in Davante Adams and a new timing- and rhythm-based system, Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears simply won't be able to match them blow-for-blow. Don't expect this one to be a barnburner, though. 

Cardinals 20, Lions 14

It's something of a nightmare to project the Arizona Cardinals season, as they will debut two major wild cards with new head coach Kliff Kingsbury and new signal-caller Kyler Murray.

In fact, the Cardinals' new system is such a mystery that the Detroit Lions should have little idea what they're preparing for, which, coupled with opening at home, gives Arizona a good head start. We know the new system will be an Air Raid, and with Larry Fitzgerald, Christian Kirk, and Andy Isabella within arms' reach, Murray could have a lot of fun Sunday. 

There's no question the Lions are the safer pick here, with a solid defense under Matt Patricia. But Detroit's 6-10 finish last season showed how much work the second-year head coach and new offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell needs to do with this offense. Until Patricia can demonstrate that he's got a well-balanced team, we'll go with the X-factor in the Cardinals.  

John Hefti/Associated Press

Broncos 24, Raiders 21

Anyone hoping HBO's Hard Knocks would give us a clear picture of what to expect from the Oakland Raiders this season is surely disappointed.

Though we did learn that new coach Jon Gruden loves Nathan Peterman (who's now on injured reserve), that tight end is the "lifeblood" of the Raiders' new offense and that Gruden wasn't that high on preseason star Keelan Doss, the new-look Raiders are still an enigma.

A clearer picture of Gruden's team will emerge when it takes the field against the Denver Broncos on Monday Night Football. Certainly, the Oakland crowd will be fired up to welcome back their Raiders and will make life difficult for the Broncos. But the difference-maker here may not be Gruden, Antonio Brown, Derek Carr or Joe Flacco.

It just might be new Broncos coach Vic Fangio, who can and has proved his ability to scheme against Carr's weaknesses.

Fangio can force Carr into short underneath passes to his new checkdown option, Hunter Renfrow. If Fangio can take away Brown, the Broncos should have no problem walking out of RingCentral Coliseum with a win. We'll assume, however, for that to happen that Broncos running back Phillip Lindsay and wideout Emmanuel Sanders will be fully healthy. 

All odds via Caesars.