NFL Week 1 Predictions: Projections for the Early Lines, Spreads and Odds

Four perennial contenders in the AFC square off in two of Week 1's top Sunday matchups, with the Pittsburgh Steelers visiting the New England Patriots and the Indianapolis Colts taking on the Los Angeles Chargers.

The Colts, Patriots and Steelers are tasked with replacing key parts of their offense, while the Chargers might have to do the same if Melvin Gordon is still holding out. 

The Chargers and Patriots are two of six home teams favored by five points or more in Week 1. 

Week 1 Schedule and Predictions

Odds via Caesars.

Predictions against the spread in bold.

Thursday, September 5

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears (-3) 

Sunday, September 8

Los Angeles Rams  (-3) at Carolina Panthers

Washington at Philadelphia Eagles (-8.5) 

Buffalo Bills at New York Jets (-3) 

Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings (-3.5) 

Baltimore Ravens (-6.5) at Miami Dolphins

Kansas City Chiefs (-4) at Jacksonville Jaguars

Tennessee Titans at Cleveland Browns (-5.5) 

Indianapolis Colts at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5) 

Cincinnati Bengals at Seattle Seahawks (-9.5) 

San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (N/A)

New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-7) 

Detroit Lions (-2.5) at Arizona Cardinals

Pittsburgh Steelers at New England Patriots (-5.5) 

Monday, September 9

Houston Texans at New Orleans Saints (-7) 

Denver Broncos at Oakland Raiders (N/A) 

Indianapolis at Los Angeles Chargers (-6.5) 

Mark J. Terrill/Associated Press

The late-afternoon clash at Dignity Health Sports Park grabs our attention because of how much the Indianapolis Colts and Los Angeles Chargers have been in the news during preseason.

Jacoby Brissett is now in charge of the Colts offense after Andrew Luck's retirement, and the Chargers could be without Melvin Gordon, which opens the door for Austin Ekeler to start. 

NFL Network's Ian Rapaport reported Saturday the Chargers allowed Gordon's agents to pursue a trade. 

Chargers general manager Tom Telesco said Sunday that any negotiations with the running back "will be postponed until after the season", per ESPN's Adam Schefter. 

If Anthony Lynn's team plays without Gordon, it still has offensive options to challenge the Colts defense, with wide receiver Keenan Allen headlining the group. 

With Hunter Henry returning from injury and Mike Williams as a solid No. 2 option, Allen should come close to his 1,196 receiving yards from a year ago.

Even with Derwin James on injured reserve, the Chargers have a tenacious defense that should pressure Brissett. 

Melvin Ingram and Joey Bosa can wreak havoc on the defensive line, while Desmond King and Adrian Phillips lead a secondary tasked with silencing T.Y. Hilton. 

The Chargers went 5-3 at home in 2018 and held four opponents to 21 points or fewer in those victories. 

Indianapolis was 4-4 on the road in the regular season, but three of those triumphs came within the AFC South. 

Hilton hauled in 32 receptions for 504 yards and one touchdown in six of those road contests, and 199 of those yards were picked up in Week 14 against Houston.

If Brissett's top target is taken away by the Los Angeles secondary, it is hard to imagine the Colts staying in the contest, even if Marlon Mack gains some traction on the ground. 

Pittsburgh at New England (-5.5) 

Don Wright/Associated Press

Sunday night's showdown at Gillette Stadium marks the first time Pittsburgh and New England have met in September since 2015. 

The rare early-season clash between AFC contenders gives us the first chance to see the Steelers without Antonio Brown. 

JuJu Smith-Schuster is expected to slide into a higher-profile role in the Steelers offense, but the real story is who develops as secondary targets behind him on the depth chart. 

The third-year receiver has had mixed results versus New England, as he recorded 114 yards in 2017 and was limited to 40 on four catches in 2018. 

James Washington and Donte Moncrief will be relied upon to provide support in the passing game, but that may be hard to do in Week 1.

Despite ranking 22nd in passing yards conceded, the Patriots held seven of their opponents under 25 points at home in the regular season. 

New England is dealing with a loss of its own from Rob Gronkowski's retirement, but Tom Brady still has plenty of reliable options in the passing game, including Julian Edelman, James White and Sony Michel.

Brady is 8-3 with 26 touchdowns and five interceptions against the Steelers, and he produced four scores through the air in the last September meeting with the AFC North side. 

Replacing Gronkowski will be tough, but the Patriots gained experience playing without the tight end when he suffered through injuries over the years. 

The future Hall of Fame quarterback should have enough weapons at his disposal to earn a season-opening win at home, a feat he has achieved nine times in his career. 

Follow Joe on Twitter, @JTansey90

Statistics obtained from Pro Football Reference