NHL Stanley Cup Final 2019: Prop Odds and Predictions for Bruins vs. Blues

Steve Silverman@@profootballboyFeatured ColumnistJune 9, 2019

Multiple Boston power plays will mean multiple scoring opportunities for Torey Krug.
Multiple Boston power plays will mean multiple scoring opportunities for Torey Krug.Jeff Roberson/Associated Press

The Boston Bruins are facing elimination in Sunday night's Stanley Cup Final game, and that means they will be a desperate team when they take the ice at the Enterprise Center in St. Louis.

The Blues are playing for a chance to win the first Stanley Cup in team history, and they have established a strong, physical game that has allowed them to get the edge on a team that had been playing brilliant hockey as little as eight days ago.

Both teams have shown they can win on the road, so playing away from home should not be a problem for the Bruins, but hard hitting by Colton Parayko, Jay Bouwmeester, Patrick Maroon and David Perron have gone a long way toward taking the Bruins out of their offensive game.

The Bruins have scored three goals in their last two games after scoring seven goals in their Game 3 victory.

The Blues are slight favorites to win the game and parade the Stanley Cup in front of their home fans. They are -120 to win Game 6 (wager $120 to win $100), per Covers.com, while that same site has the Bruins at -103 (wager $103 to win $100).

In addition to that straight wager, the website MyBookie offers a number of prop bets and individual player totals concerning shots on goal, points and saves.

Starting with shots on goal, Bruins center Patrice Bergeron has been the team's go-to leader in all big games on an every-year basis. Bergeron is known for his all-around play, as he is a dominant defensive player and one of the best faceoff men in the league. In this game, it seems clear that the Bruins need to re-ignite their offense, and one of the ways of generating scoring opportunities is through shots on goal.

The website offers a prop on Bergeron coming up with over or under 2.5 shots on goal. The over prop is offered at -155 (bet $155 to win $100), while the under can be bet at +125 (wager $100, win $125). Bergeron is a key offensive factor on the power play, and he also excels at deflecting shots and picking up rebounds. Bergeron leads the team with 78 shots attempts during the postseason.

After the Game 5 missed call on the trip/slew foot of Tyler Bozak on Noel Acciari, this seems to be a game where the officials will call multiple penalties. We see Bergeron with heavy involvement, and the play here is to take Bergeron to go over the 2.5 shots on goal in Game 6.

Boston Bruins @NHLBruins

#NHLBruins all-time postseason scoring leaders: 1. Ray Bourque | 161 2. Patrice Bergeron, Phil Esposito | 102 3. David Krejci 101 https://t.co/NLnMktN4eg

If the power play is a big factor for the Bruins, that means there will be a huge opportunity for Boston defenseman Torey Krug. He is the triggerman for this unit, carrying, distributing and shooting the puck throughout the man advantage. The over/under on Krug shots on goal is also 2.5, but the over is offered at +130 and the under is -160. 

There is no doubt that Krug will attempt multiple shots from the blue line throughout the game, but how many will get through and force St. Louis goalie Jordan Binnington to make a save or go in the net? This seems like a bet to take the under, but since the likelihood is that power plays will be in abundance, we will take the over 2.5 shots on goal with Krug.

The Blues should have their share of scoring opportunities on home ice, and the first player to look at is Ryan O'Reilly, who has scored three goals in the last two games and has taken 49 shots in the postseason. O'Reilly has been driving the Blues toward the Stanley Cup, and he will not slow down here. The over 2.5 shots on goal is offered at +110, and the under is at -140. 

O'Reilly excels in the short area between the faceoff circles, and while the Boston defense will key on him, he will get his shots on goal. Take the over 2.5 shots on goal with O'Reilly.

As far as scoring points is concerned, take a strong look at Charlie Coyle, who had goals in Games 2, 3 and 4 for the Bruins. He has not been afraid to go toward the blue paint and take advantage of close-in opportunities, and he scored a goal in Game 2 from a 30-foot shot from the slot. Coyle is listed +125 to score more than 0.5 points (at least one assist or goal) and -155 to have a scoreless night. Coyle is one of those key players who can score from the Bruins and take Coyle to go over that total.

The same goes for Parayko at odds of +125 for over and -155 for the under. Parayko is a shutdown defenseman, but he has a huge shot from the point. The prediction here is that at least one of them either gets through Boston goalie Tuukka Rask or produces a rebound that leads to a goal. Take Parayko to go over 0.5 points.


Game prediction

The Blues have seized control of the series with back-to-back wins, and they have an opportunity to play for a piece of history. The Bruins are not going to be intimidated by playing on the road, and they will match the Blues' motivation to win the Stanley Cup with their own desperation to remain alive.

Boston won in this situation in the first round when it beat the Toronto Maple Leafs by winning Game 6 in Toronto and Game 7 in Boston.

We are not ready to predict the Bruins will win the seventh game at home, but their past history of success in a win-or-go-home situation will allow them to force a final game in Boston Wednesday night. The Bruins survive Game 6 in St. Lous.