Biggest MLB Winners and Losers of the Season's 1st Month
The first sixth of the 2019 Major League Baseball season is in the bag. For some, it was a blast. For others, a nightmare.
We've come to do some sorting with a list of the biggest winners and losers of the season's first month. These cover four teams that either surpassed or fell short of expectations, as well as a handful of players who either did or didn't enjoy themselves.
We'll start with the teams and go from there.
Winners: Tampa Bay Rays
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What makes the Tampa Bay Rays one of the big winners from the season's first month?
Well, they've thus far compiled a better record (19-9) and run differential (plus-47) than any team in MLB. That'll do it.
For the most part, the Rays have pitched their way to the top. Led by reigning American League Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell, breakout star Tyler Glasnow and able veteran Charlie Morton, their mound staff has put together an MLB-best 2.95 ERA.
Tampa Bay's lineup hasn't been as dominant, but it's gotten excellent returns out of three trade acquisitions (Austin Meadows, Yandy Diaz and Tommy Pham) plus hot hitting out of the recently extended Brandon Lowe. To boot, the guys with the bats have also played excellent defense.
Another obligatory part of the Rays' story is their $61 million payroll. It's easily the lowest in the league, not to mention well short of the two $200 million-plus payrolls elsewhere in the AL East in Boston and New York.
Although the Rays could probably afford to spend a little more—perhaps on a certain free-agent closer—for now it's hard not to be impressed by the bang they're getting for their buck.
Losers: Boston Red Sox
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On the other side of the spectrum from the Rays are the Boston Red Sox.
They were supposed to be quite good again after winning 108 regular-season games and the World Series in 2018. In actuality, they're bad. Very bad. Their 12-17 record is one of the worst in MLB, and only the Miami Marlins and Baltimore Orioles have done worse than their minus-31 run differential.
No thanks to a cool start by reigning AL MVP Mookie Betts and an ice-cold starts by Jackie Bradley Jr. and Eduardo Nunez (who's currently injured), Boston's offense has gone from scoring 5.4 runs per game to only 4.4. What's more, the team's defense has been horrendous.
Red Sox pitchers don't have much right to complain, however, because they're struggling with a 5.14 ERA in the meantime. Staff ace Chris Sale (more on him later) and 2016 Cy Young Award winner Rick Porcello have been especially huge disappointments.
The Red Sox have been playing somewhat well of late but only to the tune of a 6-5 record over their last 11 games. They'll need to do a lot better if they want to avoid succumbing to their World Series hangover.
Winners: New York Yankees
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By all rights, the New York Yankees should be having just as hard a time as the Red Sox.
The Yankees started coming down with injuries early in spring training, and the injury bug has refused to stop chomping away at them. They currently have 13 players on the injured list, including sluggers Aaron Judge and Giancarlo Stanton, staff ace Luis Severino and relief ace Dellin Betances.
Yet the Yankees are 17-11 with a plus-37 run differential anyway, precisely because they've maintained their identity.
With help from newcomer left-hander James Paxton, their pitching staff is still overpowering. Mainly courtesy of frequent dingers from Luke Voit and Gary Sanchez, their offense is keeping up the home run barrage (46 so far) that's been ongoing since 2017.
Granted, the Yankees have had the benefit of an easy schedule. They've yet to be tested against the Rays, and their big test against the Houston Astros on the road between April 8 and 10 resulted in a sweep.
Still, the Yankees have weathered their injury storm better than anyone could have asked. That should inspire optimism for what they might do when (knock on wood) they finally get healthy.
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Losers: Los Angeles Angels
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The Los Angeles Angels, on the other hand, aren't doing so great in the face of hardship.
It's doubtful that anyone expected the Angels to be great this season, but it was reasonable enough to expect them to at least be good. They do have Mike Trout, after all, and they took some steps over the winter to improve a roster that came only a win short of .500 in 2018.
So far, however, the Angels are just 12-17.
Although it's fared well to the tune of 4.7 runs per game, the Angels offense has nonetheless missed outfielder Justin Upton, who has turf toe, and Shohei Ohtani, who's recovering from Tommy John surgery. It also got just a .282 OPS out of third baseman Zack Cozart before he also ended up on the injured list with a neck strain.
Angels pitchers, meanwhile, have struggled with a 4.82 ERA. A chunk of the blame rests on newcomers Matt Harvey, Trevor Cahill and Cody Allen (who's on the IL), who've combined for a 6.21 ERA over 71 innings.
It won't be so easy for the Angels to climb back into the AL West race, so they may ultimately be an unexpected seller on the summer trade market.
Winners: Cody Bellinger and Christian Yelich
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As for the best hitters in MLB right now, it's Cody Bellinger, Christian Yelich and then everyone else.
Bellinger was red-hot out of the gate, and he's refused to cool down. The Los Angeles Dodgers slugger co-leads MLB with 14 home runs, and he's all alone at the top with a .434 batting average, .508 on-base percentage and .906 slugging percentage.
Yelich also came out swinging a hot bat. He's cooled somewhat since then, and now he's tasked with recovering from lower back stiffness. Yet he still has Bellinger matched with 14 homers, and his .353/.460/.804 batting line is none too shabby in its own right.
Health permitting, it's easier to believe that Yelich will keep it up. After all, the Milwaukee Brewers slugger is merely picking up where he left off from a supernova stretch (e.g., a 1.219 OPS and 25 homers) in the second half of 2018 that led him to the National League MVP award.
Yet Bellinger's hot hitting doesn't have a fluky smell to it. He had previously teased a future as a superstar hitter with a .933 OPS and 39 homers as a rookie in 2017, and his expected production is about as off-the-charts as his actual production.
So, folks, what we may have here is the beginnings of a truly historic MVP race.
Loser: Jose Ramirez
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If the field is limited strictly to everyday types, the worst hitter in MLB right now is either Jurickson Profar or Brandon Crawford, each of whom is stuck with a sub-.500 OPS.
The most disappointing hitter, however, is unquestionably Jose Ramirez.
Ramirez achieved steady stardom with a .948 OPS, 68 homers and 51 stolen bases across 2017 and 2018. But so far in 2019, he's mustered only a .572 OPS and two homers. His 52 OPS+ is fifth-worst among hitters who've taken at least 100 plate appearances.
Ramirez is still making more contact than the average hitter, and his hard-hit rate is trending ever upward. His walk rate is down but still above-average.
But while all of this would seem to bode well, it can't be ignored that Ramirez's season-opening slump is an extension of the season-ending slump that did him in down the stretch of 2018. There's clearly something wrong with him, though that something is somewhat of a mystery.
The longer he needs to figure it out, the longer the Cleveland Indians' collective offensive struggle is bound to continue.
Winners: Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray
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Given that the Cincinnati Reds came into 2019 with high hopes following an active offseason, perhaps their 11-16 record is an excuse to brand them as losers.
The Reds have been playing better of late, however, and their slow start does have a major silver lining: A starting rotation that posted a 5.02 ERA in 2018 has improved to a 3.40 ERA thus far in 2019.
Luis Castillo and Sonny Gray should take a bow for that.
Castillo leads MLB with a 1.23 ERA, and he boasts 43 strikeouts against 14 walks in 36.2 innings. His fastball has been sizzling at an average of 95.9 mph, while his outstanding changeup has yielded only six hits.
For his part, Gray was a reclamation project when the Reds acquired him from the Yankees in January. His 3.64 ERA understates the extent to which he's been reclaimed. He's struck out 36 in 29.2 innings, and he's raising Castillo's MLB-best ERA with an MLB-best FIP (fielding independent pitching).
In short, the Reds have arguably the best one-two punch in baseball right now.
Losers: Chris Sale and Noah Syndergaard
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On Chris Sale's or Noah Syndergaard's good days, there aren't any pitchers more overpowering. The former features sparkling stuff and sharp command from the left side. The latter, from the right.
A month into 2019, however, there's been nary a good day for either hurler.
Sale, who struck out 13.5 batters per nine innings in 2018, has struggled to whiff even his 32 batters in 30 innings as he's racked up a 6.30 ERA. His normally electric fastball has been hit-or-miss with its velocity. The Boston ace has also served up seven homers, or four fewer than he allowed in 158 frames last year.
In the meantime, Syndergaard has managed to strike out 39 batters in 34 innings. A related story is that his own fastball is just fine; his 97.6 mph average is the best in MLB.
But the New York Mets right-hander is struggling with a 6.35 ERA anyway. Hits (40) and homers (five) have been more of a problem than he's accustomed to. Per Tim Healey of Newsday, he chalks this up to a "combination of everything" being wrong.
Regardless of what's ailing this pair, the league's hitters are weeping for neither Sale nor Syndergaard.
Winners: Pete Alonso and Fernando Tatis Jr.
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When we first checked in on the season's big winners and losers on April 12, Pete Alonso and Fernando Tatis Jr. stood out for how they were justifying their teams' bold decisions to promote them.
That could have been a jinx, but they've just kept going as their teams have racked up 30 combined wins.
Alonso, 24, has mashed with a 1.065 OPS and nine homers for the Mets. Lest anyone doubt the legitimacy of these numbers, they're underscored by an elite 99.6 mph exit velocity on his fly balls and line drives.
The 20-year-old Tatis, meanwhile, might have to miss some time after suffering a hamstring injury in Sunday's game against the Washington Nationals. Yet the San Diego Padres may feel even worse than he does, as they surely don't want to lose a guy who's put up a .910 OPS while holding it down at shortstop.
Alonso and Tatis would be lesser stories if it were routine for teams to promote their top prospects as soon as they're ready. But that's rare. Teams prefer to suppress young players' service time so they can gain an extra year of club control over them.
May Alonso and Tatis be a lesson to clubs who are so inclined: Good things can happen when you let the kids play.
Losers: Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel
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Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel also stood out when we took our first look at the winners and losers of the 2019 MLB season. Astonishingly, neither had found a job yet.
Several weeks later, they're still searching for work.
This shouldn't be the case. Keuchel is a 2015 Cy Young Award winner who's remained an outstanding workhorse even as his acehood has faded. Kimbrel was vulnerable in the latter half of 2018, yet he's still a decorated closer with the best strikeouts-per-nine rate in MLB history.
The go-to narrative is that teams don't want to pay premium prices for past-their-prime versions of Keuchel or Kimbrel. But at this point, teams may be weighing whether it would be best to wait until after the draft in June, at which time Keuchel and Kimbrel will be free of draft-pick compensation.
Both Keuchel and Kimbrel are victims of a shift in thinking regarding free agents. At least relative to how things used to be, the simplified version is that teams care more about finding good value than about adding good players.
That's unarguably the best thing for their bottom lines, but it's horrible optics for Major League Baseball.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant and Baseball Prospectus. Payroll data courtesy of Spotrac.
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.jpg?w=600 "Biggest Winners and Losers After 30 Games ⚾")
