MLB's Biggest Winners and Losers from the First 2 Weeks of the 2019 Season
Now that the 2019 Major League Baseball season has had a chance to get going, it's time to sort out who's having a good time and who's not.
We've come to present the biggest winners and losers of the first two weeks. These cover four teams that are or aren't living up to expectations, as well as a handful of players who are or aren't finding success.
We'll start with the teams.
Winners: Seattle Mariners
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Coming into the year, it was all too easy to write off the Seattle Mariners as a non-factor in the American League. Their promising start to 2018 went up in smoke, after all, and they then spent the winter retooling their roster into a motley crew of hired guns.
Well, said motley crew sits atop all of MLB with a 13-2 record.
The Mariners have gotten there primarily by hitting the ever-loving crud out of the ball. They've hit at least one home run in every game they've played en route to an MLB-high 36 long balls. They also lead in batting average, slugging percentage and OPS.
The offensive contributions are coming from all over. Jay Bruce, Edwin Encarnacion, Tim Beckham and Domingo Santana have been resurrected following rough 2018 campaigns with other teams. Meanwhile, incumbents Mitch Haniger, Daniel Vogelbach and Ryon Healy are also doing their part.
There are questions about how much talent Seattle has on the run-prevention side, but it's been good enough. As long as the dingers keep flying—knock on wood—that could be the case for the rest of the year, too.
Losers: Boston Red Sox
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At least for now, there is no more obvious antithesis to the Mariners than the Boston Red Sox.
To say that the Red Sox have been bad would be doing them a solid. They've been god-awful in racking up a 4-9 record.
For (literal) starters, their starting pitchers have put up an MLB-worst 8.79 ERA and permitted an MLB-high 18 home runs. Making matters worse is their sloppy defense. They entered play Thursday ranked 25th in efficiency at turning batted balls into outs.
It's all putting too much strain on an offense that isn't resembling the unit that led the majors in runs per game in 2018. Mookie Betts, J.D. Martinez, Mitch Moreland and Xander Bogaerts are hitting well, but the space around them is mostly empty.
In all, you'd never be able to tell that these Red Sox are largely made up of the same names and faces that won 108 regular-season games and the World Series in 2018. Like a lot of us on a standard Saturday morning, they're desperately trying to snap out of a hangover.
Winners: Philadelphia Phillies
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Meanwhile in the National League, the early race for the Senior Circuit's top record is a crowded affair with nary an equivalent to the Mariners.
The Philadelphia Phillies, however, must be pleased with their early returns.
After winning only 80 games in 2018, the Phillies endeavored to take the hot stove season. Beyond a $330 million contract for Bryce Harper, they spent another $73 million to sign Andrew McCutchen and David Robertson. They also sacrificed a chunk of their farm system to acquire J.T. Realmuto and Jean Segura.
The result, so far, includes a four-game winning streak out of the gate and a 7-4 record overall.
Not all of their additions have hit their strides, but Harper is earning his pay with a 1.243 OPS and four long balls. McCutchen has a solid .809 OPS. Also helping are incumbents Rhys Hoskins and Maikel Franco, who've combined for nine home runs and a 1.145 OPS.
At some point, it stands to reason that Robertson, Realmuto, Segura and Aaron Nola will also settle in and live up to their star power. When that point comes, the Phillies could be tough to stop.
Losers: Chicago Cubs
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The Chicago Cubs were the anti-Phillies this past winter. They barely changed their roster and decided to wait for better things from their holdovers.
Their patience is not being rewarded. The Cubs are 4-8, which ties them with the Cincinnati Reds at the bottom of the NL Central.
To be fair, the Cubs have scored as many runs as they've allowed. That's a credit to their offense, which has snapped out of its second-half funk from 2018 to the tune of a .272 average and .815 OPS. And that's despite less than expected from Kris Bryant, Anthony Rizzo and Kyle Schwarber.
Chicago's pitchers, on the other hand, have mustered only a 6.43 ERA. There haven't been many bright spots outside Jon Lester and Brad Brach, and the former was placed on the injured list with a strained hamstring Wednesday.
This is happening just three years after the Cubs laid the foundation for a dynasty with a 103-win season and their first World Series championship in over a century. But that foundation began to crack in 2017 and 2018, and it may be on the verge of falling apart.
Winners: Tampa Bay Rays Pitchers
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Since they're off to a 10-3 start, the Tampa Bay Rays are indeed worth raving about as a whole.
But let's face it: The Rays' red-hot start to 2019 is mostly their pitching staff's doing.
The Rays have permitted only 26 runs through 13 games, and their 1.98 ERA is the top mark in MLB by slightly more than half a run. Rays pitchers also lead with a .263 xwOBA, which measures expected production based on strikeouts, walks and contact quality.
Reigning AL Cy Young Award winner Blake Snell has picked up where he left off with a 2.84 ERA and 27 strikeouts through three starts. Newcomer Charlie Morton and incumbents Tyler Glasnow, Yonny Chirinos and Ryne Stanek have also dominated at the start of games. At the end of contests, Jose Alvarado is continuing his emergence as the most electric left-handed reliever this side of Aroldis Chapman.
Granted, that this is happening isn't too surprising. Rays pitchers started slow in 2018, but they settled into a groove that produced a 3.46 ERA over the team's final 124 games.
What the Rays have now is an upgraded version of that pitching staff. Hence the upgraded results.
Loser: Chris Sale
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On the topic of pitching, you'll find Chris Sale at the other side of the spectrum from Rays hurlers.
The 30-year-old southpaw isn't the only problem in Boston's rotation. His 9.00 ERA through three starts isn't great, but Rick Porcello and Eduardo Rodriguez have been worse, and David Price and Nathan Eovaldi haven't been much better.
Sale's slow start is especially alarming, however, because all available evidence indicates he's broken.
Last season, Sale pitched off a 94.7 mph fastball and struck out a staggering 13.5 batters per nine innings. Thus far in 2019, he's working off a 91.3 mph fastball and has struck out only eight batters in 13 innings. He's gotten exactly one swing-and-miss on a fastball.
The company line is that Sale is saving his good stuff for later in the year, but it doesn't take a conspiratorial mind to wonder if he's struggling with lingering effects from the shoulder injury that sidelined him for a good chunk of 2018.
In any case, this is no way to celebrate a $145 million contract extension.
Winner: Cody Bellinger
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According to Baseball Reference's wins above replacement, the best player in baseball is Mike Trout. Of course it is, because the Earth is still round and spinning.
What's slightly more surprising is that Cody Bellinger ranks directly below him.
Though Bellinger teased a superstar future with an NL-rookie-record 39 home runs and a .933 OPS for the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2017, a wake-up call came in 2018. He slipped to an .814 OPS and 25 homers, and he was barely hanging on as an everyday player by the end of the year.
The 2019 version of Bellinger is not only better, but the best he's ever been. He's got a 1.343 OPS and seven homers, which leads the National League.
Further evidence that Bellinger, 23, is up to something different can be found in his decreased strikeout rate and improved hard-hit rate. Likewise, his third-ranked .542 xwOBA confirms that his bat really is that hot.
Altogether, his superstardom is back on.
Loser: Chris Davis
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And then there's Chris Davis.
The 33-year-old Baltimore Orioles slugger came into 2019 off a season that was one for the books in a bad way. He hit just .168 (the worst since 1909) with a .539 OPS (the worst of 2018) over 128 games. After a season like that, up should be the only way to go.
In actuality, Davis is 0-for-32 through his first 11 games. When coupled with how he ended 2018, he's riding an MLB-record 0-for-53 streak.
This is technically the same guy who led the majors in home runs in 2013 and 2015, but it's not so much that guy in practicality. Davis' strikeout habit was bad to begin with, and it's getting worse. Though he hasn't yet lost his ability to hit the ball hard, it's simply not translating into power anymore.
None of this is pretty to watch, and even the $92 million remaining on Davis' seven-year, $161 million contract doesn't work as an excuse to keep running him out there. It may not be long before he's officially a sunk cost.
In the meantime, the guy could use more sympathy cheers.
Winners: Pete Alonso and Fernando Tatis Jr.
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Something odd happened on the eve of Opening Day. The New York Mets promoted Pete Alonso and the San Diego Padres promoted Fernando Tatis Jr. rather than send them down for additional "seasoning."
Neither team has any reason to regret doing so.
This is particularly true of the Mets and Alonso. Amid the club's 8-4 start, the 24-year-old slugger has been as advertised in racking up a 1.362 OPS and six home runs.
"We got off to a pretty good start winning our first two series, and without Pete, I don't know that we win all those games," said Mets general manager Brodie Van Wagenen, per Tim Britton of The Athletic.
Meanwhile in San Diego, the 20-year-old Tatis has aided the Padres' 9-5 start with a solid .816 OPS and strong defense at shortstop.
Consider this a victory in the war against the blight on MLB known as "service-time manipulation."
This is a system in which teams keep players in the minors not because they aren't ready for the majors, but because clubs stand to expand their years of control from six to seven. It's an ignoble thing to do, and it has no place at a time when stardom and youth go hand in hand.
Losers: Dallas Keuchel and Craig Kimbrel
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Now, if only Dallas Keuchel and/or Craig Kimbrel could find a job.
By all rights, both should have been snatched off the free-agent market a long time ago. Kimbrel is one of the most decorated closers in baseball history. Keuchel won the AL Cy Young Award in 2015, and he was one of only 13 pitchers to cross 200 innings last season.
But two weeks into the 2019 season, both remain unemployed.
There are extents to which this is understandable. Kimbrel was reportedly seeking $100 million, which is indeed a bit much for a 30-year-old whose armor began to crack in 2018. Keuchel also set out for a megadeal despite being a 31-year-old with cracks in his own armor.
It's nonetheless baffling that neither was deemed worth some risk. The bright side for them should be that plenty of teams could use a reliable starter (looking at you, Yankees) or an ace reliever (looking at you, um, everyone). But at this point, neither is likely to get anything beyond a low-risk one-year deal.
Though that will be money saved for some lucky billionaire owners, the pair's continued free-agent status is good for nobody.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs, Baseball Savant and Baseball Prospectus.
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